ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StrongWind]

I think you forgot to attach it

Two live chaser links, at least 4 chasers on each atm:

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

https://livestormchasing.com/map

Looks like quite a few chasers are at the same garage as Jeff. Reed is still just driving around, he sounds bored. He is headed towards the airport

Apologies if this has been posted already:

Jeff Piotrowski - https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1rmxPYqmYpVKN

[sweetpea]

Any reports or CAMs from the area?

There is one that I have been watching as things went dark. I can still see a few lights that are probably on generators with howling wind and torrential rain.

So you have that link? I thought it ended and closed it

here are a few I am watching

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/
https://www.pscp.tv/Jeff_Piotrowski/1rmxPYqmYpVKN
And Reed on FB

I remembered the link this time

[Highteeld]

Eye temp approaching Hurricane Rita levels

2020AUG27 032020 6.4 928.8 124.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.85 -67.70 EYE 25 IR 69.2 29.21 93.23 ARCHER GOES16 39.4

[wx98]

Michael didn’t start weakening until it went inland, right? Laura seems to be different in that regard.

this isn't weakening at all

I saw an update saying it’s pressure went up. Must have been an error.

I think there was a center drop near the edge of the eye and not the exact center. Could've accounted for the difference there.

[EnnisTx]

Any reports or CAMs from the area?

There is one that I have been watching as things went dark. I can still see a few lights that are probably on generators with howling wind and torrential rain.

So you have that link? I thought it ended and closed it

https://youtu.be/w3bwtnmk1lA

[FLpanhandle91]

Does NHC bite on the dropsonde data and bump to cat 5? I'm thinking 936mb and 155mph for 11PM.

[Beef Stew]

That 'sonde reading may be the equivalent of Michael's 140kt sfmr in terms of a little more evidence to help with a post-analysis upgrade. We'll have to see. I think some of the higher-end radar readings we've gotten tonight may help too as will ground data/obs, but it's going to be very close. That being said, there's still time for more recon data that may sway one way or the other. I think a bump to 155 mph at the least wouldn't be unreasonable for the eventual best track.

[ConvergenceZone]

The weather channel said the eyewall is only about an hour offshore now, so it probably won’t weaken before the eye wall comes on shore, but slow weakening will commence once it does

[Highteeld]

That 'sonde reading may be the equivalent of Michael's 140kt sfmr in terms of a little more evidence to help with a post-analysis upgrade. We'll have to see. I think some of the higher-end radar readings we've gotten tonight may help too as will ground data/obs, but it's going to be very close. That being said, there's still time for more recon data that may sway one way or the other. I think a bump to 155 mph at the least wouldn't be unreasonable for the eventual best track.

Between that sonde, the radar data, and the flagged 137 knot sfmr, it will be close.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Does NHC bite on the dropsonde data and bump to cat 5? I'm thinking 936mb and 155mph for 11PM.

NHC will probably wait until SFMR shows Category 5. The bar is high in terms of evidence, and it would be strange for dropsonde to find 175mph winds but not a single SFMR reading in excess of 125 knots.

[eastcoastFL]

There is one that I have been watching as things went dark. I can still see a few lights that are probably on generators with howling wind and torrential rain.

So you have that link? I thought it ended and closed it

https://youtu.be/w3bwtnmk1lA

Thank you!!

[wx98]

That 'sonde reading may be the equivalent of Michael's 140kt sfmr in terms of a little more evidence to help with a post-analysis upgrade. We'll have to see. I think some of the higher-end radar readings we've gotten tonight may help too as will ground data/obs, but it's going to be very close. That being said, there's still time for more recon data that may sway one way or the other. I think a bump to 155 mph at the least wouldn't be unreasonable for the eventual best track.

Not sure about many ground obs. There's no one/nothing there.

[cfisher]

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... 94#sensors

[Hurricane Mike]

Midnight Video Update on Laura
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzh3xoxe4JE

[wx98]

And of course the plane isn't reporting again...

[jaxfladude]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1298828038902173696

Humans: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
2020: Oh?! Hell Yes!

//end rant//
But really seriously prayers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Reading the dropsonde was destroyed by a wave above the surface, thus the high values. Didn't reach the surface.

[CrazyC83]

I'd suspect that dropsonde hit a mesovortex. Still want to see more convincing data to go there - 135 kt is my estimate still.

[wkwally]

Jim Cantore sounded a little pevved at those who are riding this out in cameron

[ConvergenceZone]

If it does get tagged as a Cat 5, it will get tagged after, because it’s not going to be tagged before