ATL: LAURA - Models

[cheezyWXguy]

00z HMON hours 54-60:
https://i.imgur.com/CmeBdOW.gif

Kind of odd to me. Almost a full degree south of the 18z, then hits a wall and makes landfall in basically the same spot.

That’s just how it works out sometimes...

Well, like...it might help to figure out why

[catskillfire51]

Also odd that even though it's weaker it's still further south. I really think we have either locked into beaumont/port arthur or 6z is going to throw a wrench.

Well CMC is pretty much a Galveston landfall. Euro does follow the CMC track at times. We'll see.

Yeah I should have thrown the Euro with that 6z wrench

[Ritzcraker]

Kind of odd to me. Almost a full degree south of the 18z, then hits a wall and makes landfall in basically the same spot.

That’s just how it works out sometimes...

Well, like...it might help to figure out why

From what I can tell there is supposed to be something over Texas that “eats into the ridge” and allows Laura to ride it out.

[Highteeld]

HWRF might have initiated a little too disorganized.

[Ubuntwo]

That’s just how it works out sometimes...

Well, like...it might help to figure out why

From what I can tell there is supposed to be something over Texas that “eats into the ridge” and allows Laura to ride it out.

From the discussion:

By early
Wednesday, Laura will likely slow down and turn northwestward and
then northward as it moves into a break in the ridge, caused by a
weak trough over the south-central U.S.

Read the discos people. Not rocket science.

[superfly]

Kind of odd to me. Almost a full degree south of the 18z, then hits a wall and makes landfall in basically the same spot.

That’s just how it works out sometimes...

Well, like...it might help to figure out why

It's on the west side of a subtropical ridge, hence the north movement.

[jasons2k]

Awfully chatty in here - save it for the discussion thread.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF hour 45:

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, like...it might help to figure out why

From what I can tell there is supposed to be something over Texas that “eats into the ridge” and allows Laura to ride it out.

From the discussion:

By early
Wednesday, Laura will likely slow down and turn northwestward and
then northward as it moves into a break in the ridge, caused by a
weak trough over the south-central U.S.

Read the discos people. Not rocket science.

If this answered all the questions, there wouldn’t be any forecast uncertainty. Is it’s slowed rate of intensification making it more susceptible? Less susceptible? Is the breakdown of the ridge in this area reasonable? It seems the models still have varying ideas on how to handle all of this.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z UKMET running.

[Haris]

Huge shift left on GEFS... Couple members get it into CTX!!

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF hour 51:

[Steve]

00z UKMET running.

They posted it an hour ago I think. Hwrf is making its way to the LA/TX border. Cameron Parish if it turns up, Jefferson Co. if not

[ColdMiser123]

00z UKMET running.

Landfall just west of the TX/LA border:

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET running.

They posted it an hour ago I think. Hwrf is making its way to the LA/TX border. Cameron Parish if it turns up, Jefferson Co. if not

Yep:

[Steve]

HWRF clips Cameron. That’s like Holly Beach or so. 939. Not real populated there but close enough for a lot of trouble for a lot of people.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2500&fh=54

[Kingarabian]

45 minutes until the 00z Euro.

[AerospaceEng]

Huge shift left on GEFS... Couple members get it into CTX!!

Do you have a link?

[sphelps8681]

00z UKMET running.

Landfall just west of the TX/LA border:

https://i.imgur.com/Gts7yXa.png

That is not good for me at all.!! Ugh. Puts me on the dirty side.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very slight westerly shift on the 00z UKMET.