ATL: LAURA - Models

[tolakram]

[Kingarabian]

Woah, did not expect that. Hour 48 just off of Galveston and strengthening.

Yeah I guess so strengthening. CMC doesn't calculate TC pressures correctly anymore.

[SoupBone]

There is now way, no way, the Euro trends east. Did these runs have that additional air data?

[storm4u]

Houston is under the gun

Definitely!

[Kingarabian]

00z CMC hours 48-60:

Now the most western based model.

[jaguars_22]

I’m not liking these models inching closer to me in port o Connor! I swear someone hacked the system because tomorrow am they will go back East.

[tolakram]

[ColdMiser123]

HMON with a significantly more accurate initial progression compared to 18z. Should see a legitimate solution this time around.

[Kingarabian]

Notice to users: The GEM/CMC does not show proper pressures as it used to do. So when it shows 980-990mb that means it has a well stacked hurricane. It's useful for track but not for intensity. Wanted to post this so we don't see 20 posts about "wow the Canadian shows it weaker is this a trend??".

[jasons2k]

To be fair, almost all the models have shift West to East over a 12 hour a window for the last 3 days. Typically the morning models start to show that eastern trend, where the evening models have moved west.

The time is literally just coincidental, but that's how it's lined up thus far.

True, but cumulatively, the trend has been west. A few days ago SE Florida appeared to be under the gun. The ultimate track has been taking two steps west, one step east, two steps west...and so on, that I think the chances for a Texas landfall now are going up significantly.

[Kingarabian]

Here's the 00z HMON hour 12:

[cheezyWXguy]

HMON with a significantly more accurate initial progression compared to 18z. Should see a legitimate solution this time around.

So far I am skeptical. Hour 18 and no strengthening at all?

[SoupBone]

Uhhhh is that not a big SW shift too?

[Kingarabian]

HMON with a significantly more accurate initial progression compared to 18z. Should see a legitimate solution this time around.

So far I am skeptical. Hour 18 and no strengthening at all?

I think it will follow its 12z run:

[FixySLN]

To be fair, almost all the models have shift West to East over a 12 hour a window for the last 3 days. Typically the morning models start to show that eastern trend, where the evening models have moved west.

The time is literally just coincidental, but that's how it's lined up thus far.

True, but cumulatively, the trend has been west. A few days ago SE Florida appeared to be under the gun. The ultimate track has been taking two steps west, one step east, two steps west...and so on, that I think the chances for a Texas landfall now are going up significantly.

You'll get no argument from me, absolutely right. I'm still of a mind, however, that the LA/TX state line is the sweet spot, maybe a bit due east of it. I'm no pro, basing my guess off amateur observations and the likelihood that we see more of a stair climbing motion WNW than a clean sweep.

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON hour 27 is stronger than 18z and 12z.

[catskillfire51]

HMON Further south and 7MB stronger vs 18z at 27hr

[ColdMiser123]

HMON with a significantly more accurate initial progression compared to 18z. Should see a legitimate solution this time around.

So far I am skeptical. Hour 18 and no strengthening at all?

I agree that no deepening through tomorrow afternoon is tough to believe. That could mean that chances are, this will be even stronger than what the HMON ends up showing here.

[HouTXmetro]

Same thing again, models shifting left at night. Can anyone explain? Is this typical? I was really hoping for a bucking of the windshield wiper trend and some consistency.

[Kingarabian]

00z HMON hour 33: