ATL: LAURA - Models

[PTrackerLA]

12z HWRF looks a little east from 06z at 30hrs

[Nederlander]

Local NBC affiliate in Houston, Channel 2, just showed their in-house RPM model, which puts Laura offshore of Galveston at 2 a.m. on Thursday as what looks like a fairly strong storm (didn't give intensity).

I’ve been hesitant to give my opinion since the NHC has been fairly consistent, so don’t want to give misleading information or contrary to the NHC. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a forecast track adjustment to somewhere near High Island/Bolivar as a major. Laura has been consistently on the Southern side of the track.

[shiny-pebble]

Laura needs to clear the islands already, these models just have no clue.

Agreed. The smallest difference from initialization and reality can mess up the rest of the run especially with land interaction

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[Shell Mound]

Local NBC affiliate in Houston, Channel 2, just showed their in-house RPM model, which puts Laura offshore of Galveston at 2 a.m. on Thursday as what looks like a fairly strong storm (didn't give intensity).

I’ve been hesitant to give my opinion since the NHC has been fairly consistent, so don’t want to give misleading information or contrary to the NHC. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a forecast track adjustment to somewhere near High Island/Bolivar as a major. Laura has been consistently on the Southern side of the track.

Based on modelled and current trends, landfall is more likely to occur near Cameron/Johnson’s Bayou, LA, instead of in Southeast TX. Think Rita or Audrey.

[catskillfire51]

Local NBC affiliate in Houston, Channel 2, just showed their in-house RPM model, which puts Laura offshore of Galveston at 2 a.m. on Thursday as what looks like a fairly strong storm (didn't give intensity).

I’ve been hesitant to give my opinion since the NHC has been fairly consistent, so don’t want to give misleading information or contrary to the NHC. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a forecast track adjustment to somewhere near High Island/Bolivar as a major. Laura has been consistently on the Southern side of the track.

Even with the majority of models going east?

[Nederlander]

12z HWRF looks a little east from 06z at 30hrs

Laura would need to track due north at this point to reach the 6 hr. forecast point.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF is the same as 06z so far in terms of intensity.

[Blinhart]

I think we can all agree that the most likely landfall is in between New Orleans and Galveston. My personal belief is that it will in between Pecan Island and Cameron as a Cat 3-4, I hate saying that because it puts me in the worse possible situation where I might get the worse of this system, but looking at all the models (ensembles included) I think that is where it would go.

[jasons2k]

Local NBC affiliate in Houston, Channel 2, just showed their in-house RPM model, which puts Laura offshore of Galveston at 2 a.m. on Thursday as what looks like a fairly strong storm (didn't give intensity).

I’ve been hesitant to give my opinion since the NHC has been fairly consistent, so don’t want to give misleading information or contrary to the NHC. That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a forecast track adjustment to somewhere near High Island/Bolivar as a major. Laura has been consistently on the Southern side of the track.

Even with the majority of models going east?

They all initialized too far to the North and East. Also, the real clues are in the Ensembles and not the operational runs. The stronger ensembles go west.

And as far as current trends go, the center relocation to the west along with what appears to be a building structure/deepening convection offshore would favor the stronger / western tracks. With all the flip-flopping of the models, the one consistent trend is that Laura has been riding the west side, the whole time. And that's not changing right now - especially if you look at what's happening on radar and satellite.

My personal opinion: I think this shift at 12z is a decoy and will be looked-back as a missed opportunity to get SE Texas in motion. The Houston-Galveston area should be prepping as if they are fully in the cone.

[PTrackerLA]

12z HMON

[supercane4867]

12z HMON landfall.

[Shell Mound]

12z HMON

https://i.imgur.com/LGI17KT.png

The structure definitely looks much more asymmetric and sheared than on some earlier runs, with the southwestern eyewall being notably anemic.

[bella_may]

HWRF 931 mb into central/sw LA

[Stormcenter]

NHC may already have the future track correct with Laura.
I see no reason to argue it.

[ronjon]

Looks to me the models are converging on a landfall about 50-100 miles east of the La-Tx border as perhaps a major CAT 3 storm. I think one or two more model cycles with this consistency will really increase confidence on the final track. I don't think intializations off right now by 10s of miles make all that much difference at landfall.

[MBryant]

Is a direction and speed at landfall something that could be noted? A Cameron landfall with a WNW direction is the exact path of AUDREY in 1957 which was a major destructive force in Orange.

[BobHarlem]

NHC may already have the future track correct with Laura.
I see no reason to argue it.

It's not bad, I'd imagine it'll wind up on the west side of the current cone, though, but not the extreme west.

[supercane4867]

[PTrackerLA]

12z HWRF

[plasticup]

12z HWRF looks a little east from 06z at 30hrs

6z and 12z have it at the exact same location at 63 hours