ATL: LAURA - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3061 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:09 am

Frank2 wrote:Right now the GOM and Western Caribbean are dominated by shear - it's all but denuded Marco and Laura is not doing much better, a very large ULL moving west to the north of Laura.

ULL's are always a wild card when it comes to forecast models.


Might be better for the discussion thread Frank :) Not much shear over Laura, land interaction is what did a number on it. It remains to be seen how favorable conditions are in the gulf in the next few days, but always a good idea to prepare for the worst and then see what happens.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3062 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:12 am

Mark, can you move it over there or should I copy and paste it on that board?

Thanks
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3063 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:14 am

Frank2 wrote:Mark, can you move it over there or should I copy and paste it on that board?

Thanks


Copy paste please, I never do the moves correctly. :lol:
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3064 Postby Ken711 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:18 am

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_13.gif

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... 13_ens.gif
Last edited by tolakram on Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: no direct linking. Removed IMG tags
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3065 Postby catskillfire51 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:18 am

NDG wrote:Another look at the 06z Euro's continuing shift to the west joining the UKMET.
I swear the Euro has been so bipolar lately, definitely not the same model from years ago.

https://i.imgur.com/IPCkSkE.png


Yeah Lake Jackson is where I live. I'm in emergency response so I'll be here but my family is leaving tomorrow no matter what.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3066 Postby Ken711 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:27 am

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1297885976056995840


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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3067 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:57 am

I don’t think the models are done swinging.
I always felt we had to wait until Laura made
it into the Gulf before the models would do a better
job with her track. IMO
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3068 Postby FixySLN » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:03 am

Stormcenter wrote:I don’t think the models are done swinging.
I always felt we had to wait until Laura made
it into the Gulf before the models would do a better
job with her track. IMO


Almost a given. These models are windshield wipers due to the unique environment created by Marco and land interaction. Also, it looks like Laura is almost rotating in two different directions. Half of her wants to go North? I don't understand the what or why but it looks like two separate bits of circulation are reforming? South of Cuba? Is it something obvious I'm not privy to?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3069 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:15 am

Not sure if I saw it mentioned, but the 00z UKMET was so far south compared to the rest of the models that it nearly clears the tip of Cuba.

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3070 Postby txag2005 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:30 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Not sure if I saw it mentioned, but the 00z UKMET was so far south compared to the rest of the models that it nearly clears the tip of Cuba.

Image
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Not sure if I saw it mentioned, but the 00z UKMET was so far south compared to the rest of the models that it nearly clears the tip of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/OooNDFw.png


Was that further south than the actual location? Maybe that explains why the UKMET went west of Freeport.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3071 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:39 am

12z NAM vs 06z NAM, ridge looks considerably weaker at 60 hrs

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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3072 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:40 am

It’s the nam that means bad news for Texas.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3073 Postby Hurricane Mike » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:47 am

I'm a bit surprised the NHC remained as far east in the 11am track. They don't seem to be buying the westward shift of the EURO. They think that ridging will break down. They do mention the likelihood of rapid strengthening in the Gulf however, and have Laura coming ashore as a dangerous 90 kt+ hurricane.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3074 Postby Storm Battered » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:47 am

stormlover2013 wrote:It’s the nam that means bad news for Texas.


Wouldn't a weaker ridge mean Texas is less likely for landfall?
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3075 Postby PTrackerLA » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:50 am

stormlover2013 wrote:It’s the nam that means bad news for Texas.


NAM is bad for forecasting tropical cyclones, but a good tool for ridge placement
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3076 Postby Ritzcraker » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:51 am

PTrackerLA wrote:12z NAM vs 06z NAM, ridge looks considerably weaker at 60 hrs

https://i.imgur.com/OtjfTsa.gif


NAM may not be good at forecasting tropical cyclones but from what I’ve learned over the past few years, it does pretty well with the steering part of things.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3077 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:51 am

Nam is horrible, worse than CMC
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3078 Postby toad strangler » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:53 am

stormlover2013 wrote:Nam is horrible, worse than CMC


It's not meant for the tropics. But it can sure do winter storms!
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3079 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:53 am

PTrackerLA wrote:12z NAM vs 06z NAM, ridge looks considerably weaker at 60 hrs

https://i.imgur.com/OtjfTsa.gif

Laura also seems notably weaker on the latest run. The NAM seems to be showing more shear and mid-level dry air as well.
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Re: ATL: LAURA - Models

#3080 Postby kevin » Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:00 am

Shell Mound wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:12z NAM vs 06z NAM, ridge looks considerably weaker at 60 hrs

https://i.imgur.com/OtjfTsa.gif

Laura also seems notably weaker on the latest run. The NAM seems to be showing more shear and mid-level dry air as well.


Not that we should use NAM for intensity, but just comparing it to the 06z NAM run it doesn't seem weaker. 12z NAM has landfall at 907 mbar, 06z NAM had 909 mbar.

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