Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Texas Snowman]

The 2020 summer solstice? Check.

The Fourth of July? Check.

Starting the Texas Winter 2020-2021 thread during Wxman57’s favorite season? Check.

Will this upcoming winter weather season finally be the one to deliver good amounts of snow, ice and cold to Texas?!?!?

[mcheer23]

I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly...

[Brent]

I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly...

boo

[gpsnowman]

I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly...

Now now now don't you dare!!! Way too early for that kind of talk.

[Ralph's Weather]

I think a fairly warm winter is on the way...sadly...

Why do you say that? I have not analyzed things for the winter yet but I do see a warm NE Pacific so that is a good sign for a cold winter.

[FireRat]

Came here to cool off for a bit, it's nice to see a winter thread so early here on S2K!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So the warm pool is still there, maybe even bigger, but paired with a La nina, could make this winter very interesting. The warm pool El nino combo hasnt worked out well for us. In 2013-'14, ENSO was pretty neutral.

Obviously, a million other variables but i do like the potential of this combo.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

So the warm pool is still there, maybe even bigger, but paired with a La nina, could make this winter very interesting. The warm pool El nino combo hasnt worked out well for us. In 2013-'14, ENSO was pretty neutral.

Obviously, a million other variables but i do like the potential of this combo.

Warm pool, La Niña, very cool Nino 1/2 ... spells out a cold Holiday season IMO

[Portastorm]

First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all.

Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.

To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all.

Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.

To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?

Youre absolutely right. Last couple winters especially predictions have been terrible. Last year especially. Last year, some of us thought it was the perfect combo for winter weather and it was the complete opposite. With that said, climate change is making a bit of an impact. Interesting to see how quickly the ice comes back in the Arctic. Big deal for building large high pressures.

I'm starting to think weak La ninas are much better for us here in Texas. 2017-18 we had three different events here in SE TX.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

First of all, I love seeing action in this thread during July! Proud of y'all.

Second, I have no great prediction or wisdom to offer about this coming winter season except for this ... for probably the last 3-4 winters, it is my belief that the weather patterns did not act out as predicted. The combination of the usual indices and signatures that mean certain things did not play out as most thought they would. Now I'm speaking from a general overall perspective. Certainly there were moments where they did. But overall, I can remember even some of who I consider to be very smart/solid weather people like Anthony Masiello, Ben Noll, and Bastardi/D'Aleo, having to examine things after the fact (season) on why the winter acted the way that it did. I do believe climate change is playing a role in messing with what we thought were accurate predictors. All of this to say that if we bank on the old tried and true analogs ... we'll probably be surprised. I just don't trust them like I used to.

To make things even more interesting is that today's models do not have the amount of data that they did pre-pandemic. I'm sure y'all have seen some of the same things I have seen online about less aircraft flying, less data being provided into the models, worse outcomes. If they're having issues in the 5-6 day range ... how can we have confidence beyond that?

Youre absolutely right. Last couple winters especially predictions have been terrible. Last year especially. Last year, some of us thought it was the perfect combo for winter weather and it was the complete opposite. With that said, climate change is making a bit of an impact. Interesting to see how quickly the ice comes back in the Arctic. Big deal for building large high pressures.

I'm starting to think weak La ninas are much better for us here in Texas. 2017-18 we had three different events here in SE TX.

Weak ninas with the PDO on our side and a warm pool in GOA, are absolutely our best bet. They often deliver the coldest air too.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm with chunking the whole El Nino-La Nina crap in the trash can and just calling it Winter

Last Winter I didn't even burn all of my 1/2 Cord, but it was no loss as it gets used in the smoker!! Either way 2020 is a toss year, just write it off and move on to 2021.

[Quicksilver17]

Let's hope for a better winter this year. we need a change from the summer heat!

[nathanc1969]

Larry Cosgrove.....who gets it right more than anyone I know, has unfortunately predicted a warm winter.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Two different almanacs, two different “forecasts”.

[gpsnowman]

Two different almanacs, two different “forecasts”.
https://i.ibb.co/7jDTY9f/03400-C79-4084-4-A58-8011-5360-BBFC5-C2-C.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/PFN6XNj/7-CBE977-B-9-F3-A-4243-8661-D7-A35-DAD082-D.jpg

I will take picture A. Typical La Nina look there. We would get by with mild winter weather and then BOOM a massive cold blast with some precip to remind us it is winter. Some winter days are mild anyway so let's make this one count. Like the map says, temperamental.

[Brent]

I don't mind warmth in winter I mean it is Texas but there better be a tradeoff

That sounds like most La Nina's

[Cerlin]

I’ve decided I’m fine with a warmer winter. JUST PLEASE give me one good snow storm of 3+ inches and I’m happy. We are long overdue.

[WinterMax]

2nd week of September will bring a welcome change.

[Portastorm]

I’ve decided I’m fine with a warmer winter. JUST PLEASE give me one good snow storm of 3+ inches and I’m happy. We are long overdue.

I was telling my Austin compadre Haris the other day that I don't mind a Nina winter. Why? They usually have several Arctic outbreak type events for Texas when the jetstream buckles and super cold air comes down from Canada. And there usually is some precip to go with it. Sure, the bulk of the winter is dry and warm and boring ... but those few events provide some nice excitement and wintry fun.