ATL: LAURA - Models

[3090]

12Z GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

That can't be correct, the center is way SW of that initiation point.

That model run was initialized at 12 noon. And now where Laura is actually located the initialization is not off by much if you look at where her center is now 3 hours later.

[jaguars_22]

I’m going to make a prediction of a cat 3 hurricane in between Matagorda and Galveston. Maybe even as far west as port o Connor??

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

That can't be correct, the center is way SW of that initiation point.

That model run was initialized at 12 noon. And now where Laura is actually located the initialization is not off by much if you look at where her center is now 3 hours later.

The center is actually south of Cuba right now. Nearly a 100mi difference at this point

[PTrackerLA]

18z Model plots, looks like consensus is about 20 miles east of the current NHC track

[3090]

18z Model plots, looks like consensus is about 20 miles east of the current NHC track

https://i.imgur.com/PcRReqQ.png

Now that is a better representation of where Laura is actually near.

[SconnieCane]

Looks like the center should spend the bulk of its time over water after perhaps clipping the "SW corner of the SE end" of Cuba as opposed to trekking the length down the "spine."

[KWT]

12Z GFS ensembles. Consensus (black line):

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

I would hazard that this is worthless considering it initialized the storm on the complete opposite side of Hispanola.

I agree. Normally this difference wouldn’t matter much but it has a huge impact on intensity. Laura may skirt the southern coast of Cuba or even come off of it, and none of the ensembles even entertain the possibility

Yeah it's a small difference but it's a huge deal in terms of likely intensity. We've seen storms strengthen well in the shallow waters just south of Cuba.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z Model plots, looks like consensus is about 20 miles east of the current NHC track

https://i.imgur.com/PcRReqQ.png

I thought most of the 18z runs weren’t out yet, or do they get this info before the rest of the model data is uploaded to the usual sites?

[Hammy]

Looks like the main reason the 12z euro is different is because it stalls Marco before landfall. I guess this makes the surrounding environment less favorable. I believe this is the only model that doesn't have Marco making landfall, so this kinda throws a wrench in things

CMC and NAM are showing similar scenarios, albeit quite a bit stronger. Euro has done the worst so far as far as handling Laura's intensity and consistently come in weaker than what's played out.

[Highteeld]

Far less interaction with Cuba with most models on this run

[Hammy]

18z Model plots, looks like consensus is about 20 miles east of the current NHC track

https://i.imgur.com/PcRReqQ.png

I thought most of the 18z runs weren’t out yet, or do they get this info before the rest of the model data is uploaded to the usual sites?

The basic track guidance tends to come out earlier and partially incorporates data from the earlier runs and updates it with some newer data, if I remember how the early cycle runs work.

[Blinhart]

I just don't see her going much further than 30 miles West of Port Arthur, or past Morgan City. I just hope she doesn't go up Grand Chenier. I can see her coming in as a Cat 4 weakening from a Cat 5, or maybe even as low as a Cat 3.

[SoupBone]

12Z Euro Ensembles

[Ken711]

[Blinhart]

Ok, so we can finally decide where this is going, lets find out where The Weather Channel plans on sending Jim Cantore and Mike Seidel, those two are usually at the worse spots of the storms (on average).

[Steve]

12Z GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

That can't be correct, the center is way SW of that initiation point.

That model run was initialized at 12 noon. And now where Laura is actually located the initialization is not off by much if you look at where her center is now 3 hours later.

It was initialized at 7am Central. It’s subtraction / GMT -5 = Central + 3 hours to 3pm. 7am to 3pm? That equals 8 hours.

[La Breeze]

I just don't see her going much further than 30 miles West of Port Arthur, or past Morgan City. I just hope she doesn't go up Grand Chenier. I can see her coming in as a Cat 4 weakening from a Cat 5, or maybe even as low as a Cat 3.

Blinhart, that's not a very good scenario for us to your south in Vermilion Parish. Do you really think that she could become a Cat 4?

[SoupBone]

NHC Update

[shah83]

Heh, if the exact track holds, that Tuesday 2pm intensity estimate is going to bust pretty hard.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON hour 24 and hour 51: