ATL: LAURA - Models

[Steve]

Looks like the main reason the 12z euro is different is because it stalls Marco before landfall. I guess this makes the surrounding environment less favorable. I believe this is the only model that doesn't have Marco making landfall, so this kinda throws a wrench in things

Many of the 12z models don't landfall Marco anymore or they bring him up to the coast and move it slow off to the west to weaken. If you haven't checked him lately, he's become a hurricane again and appears to be outperfoming what a lot of people might have thought - at least for now. Every model I've looked at has a big weakening trend starting tomorrow afternoon. Who knows? This is a first.

[HouTXmetro]

I give up, can we get some consistency here with these models. I can only imagine the headaches it's giving the NHC. Marco was headed to TX then LA/MS now they are talking about stalls and back to TX for Marco... This is beyond frustrating trying to plan accordingly.

[chaser1]

12Z GFS ensembles. Wonder why they are really not making Laura strong? CMC landfalls at 996MB and NAVGEM 989MB. Seems low considering the ideal environment in the Gulf.

https://i.postimg.cc/2S1T0vhV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-12.png

It's a legit point. I don't think near term land interaction has as much to do with it though. Latest 12 72hr EURO also suggests weaker at landfall too. All models seem pretty much unified on a pretty quick forward speed. Re-alignment issues? If already having a pretty well established vertical core in 48 hr.'s then I'd assume increased strengthening. Only impediment I could possibly make would be the same deep level ridge that's forecast to further extend into the E. GOM. Seems like increasing upper level easterlies might press close to the storm but honestly this seems like it would only act to more strongly vent southerly outflow then impinge outflow.

[gqhebert]

Euro initializes with Marco as a weak depression- I think that had an impact on this run and scewed the outcome

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF also was poorly initialized, perhaps even worse than the 12z GFS. Starts the LLC off northern coast of Haiti. This results in significantly more land interaction

[Rgv20]

Will be interesting to see the 12zECMWF Ensembles later today.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS Para Ensemble are concentrating a landfall area between Corpus and Houston.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles. Consensus (black line):

[Highteeld]

12zGFS Para Ensemble are concentrating a landfall area between Corpus and Houston.

https://i.imgur.com/2YaU2LU.png

That seems more reasonable to me

[stormlover2013]

12Z GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

That intialized really bad lol

[bohai]

We live right on the NW side of the inner loop in Houston. If this keeps looking bad, we may head to Austin to stay with sister in law. We were both in school in Austin back when Ike hit so aren't in tune with when to haul ass out of here. If we left Tuesday would we would screwed with traffic or do you think that's early enough to get out?

We left two days before Rita was supposed to induce 150 mph winds in Katy area. Took 8 hrs to get from Copperfield area to Bellville, about 30 miles away. If expected to bring such heavy winds to a more central H Town area, I would leave Monday morning (assuming a Wednesday hit) or else you will be in traffic. If it does hit H Town hard, I would recommend buying groceries in Austin before heading back.

[Blinhart]

12Z GFS ensembles:

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

That can't be correct, the center is way SW of that initiation point.

[HouTXmetro]

Ok.... what's the difference between the GEFS ensembles and the GFS Para ensembles? Which is more reliable.

[Nederlander]

 https://twitter.com/weatherdotus/status/1297601804583219204

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/weatherdotus/status/1297601804583219204?s=21

Why would they be initiliazing the models repeatedly off of the official center position?

[hohnywx]

12Z GFS ensembles. Consensus (black line):

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

I would hazard that this is worthless considering it initialized the storm on the complete opposite side of Hispanola.

[chaser1]

Looks like the main reason the 12z euro is different is because it stalls Marco before landfall. I guess this makes the surrounding environment less favorable. I believe this is the only model that doesn't have Marco making landfall, so this kinda throws a wrench in things

Many of the 12z models don't landfall Marco anymore or they bring him up to the coast and move it slow off to the west to weaken. If you haven't checked him lately, he's become a hurricane again and appears to be outperfoming what a lot of people might have thought - at least for now. Every model I've looked at has a big weakening trend starting tomorrow afternoon. Who knows? This is a first.

I'm looking at both the 200mb and broad level shear maps and wonder if they could be overplaying Marco's outflow channel and in fact over projecting an increase in projected vertical shear as a result. The W. GOM trough appears to retrograde with time and upper air conditions actually seem to improve and become more relaxed on final approach to the coast. I concede that a quicker forward track might subject a small delicate core to be more quickly introduced to strong overtaking upper level shear. On a different note, It Marco were to slow down some or track east of forecast, then upper level conditions would be more favorable then forecast. This would be problematic in multiple ways. A stronger Marco might help erode the western extension of the ridge enough to allow Laura to landfall a bit more east then forecast. Assuming that Marco does get shredded by southerly shear, then there'd be hardly much remaining of a surface reflection strong enough to compete against Laura for low level inflow. Ultimately, I think that a weakened Marco would have little to no impact on Laura's track or intensity.

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z GFS ensembles. Consensus (black line):

https://i.postimg.cc/pr594DYL/13-L-gefs-12z.png

I would hazard that this is worthless considering it initialized the storm on the complete opposite side of Hispanola.

I agree. Normally this difference wouldn’t matter much but it has a huge impact on intensity. Laura may skirt the southern coast of Cuba or even come off of it, and none of the ensembles even entertain the possibility

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297612158629535747

[cheezyWXguy]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297612158629535747

Some of those on the left end are crazy. Maintaining <980mb all the way to Dallas?