ATL: LAURA - Models

[Highteeld]

Modest tropical storm going towards NOLA at hour 57. Might not even make hurricane status this run.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Massive track shift and intensity difference on the 12z, looks to be significantly weaker and heads towards New Orleans.

I find this solution questionable, looks to have a fujiwhara almost with Marco. That's the only reason why I can tell this run is so different.

[gatorcane]

Saved image. 12Z Euro at 72 hours:

[toad strangler]

12z Euro on track to produce a weak storm. Very uncertain what happens from here.

reminds me a lot of what the ICON did in regards to the Fujiwara with Marco

Yes, 12z Euro with a weak storm into LA. Possibly not even a TS. Wow.

[Nederlander]

Really can’t tell what the Euro is doing on this run. Its now favoring the eastern weaker solution vs. the stronger western. It did the same thing on yesterday’s 12z only to flip back

[tolakram]

12Z Euro.

[NevadaFan18]

Looks like the main reason the 12z euro is different is because it stalls Marco before landfall. I guess this makes the surrounding environment less favorable. I believe this is the only model that doesn't have Marco making landfall, so this kinda throws a wrench in things

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF with a weak tropical storm into LA. Marco also off the coast of Texas still, nearly towards Brownsville. Actually weakens the storm between 48 and 72 hours, whereas every other model is (and the NHC forecast) is showing the storm bombing out.

Something is definitely suspicious about this run. Shear from Marco resulting in an unfavorable upper level environment?

[setxweathergal64]

My mom keeps asking me for updates and I don’t want to tell her what I’m seeing. Parents live in Beaumont and flooded during Harvey. Mom has serious PTSD and telling her that models are showing this is just not something she can handle.

I live in lumberton. And my mom lost her house in harvey. This is so nerve wracking. Idk what to do but mainly when to do it.

[setxweathergal64]

My mom keeps asking me for updates and I don’t want to tell her what I’m seeing. Parents live in Beaumont and flooded during Harvey. Mom has serious PTSD and telling her that models are showing this is just not something she can handle.

I live in lumberton. And my mom lost her house in harvey. This is so nerve wracking. Idk what to do but mainly when to do it.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z Euro on track to produce a weak storm. Very uncertain what happens from here.

reminds me a lot of what the ICON did in regards to the Fujiwara with Marco

Yes, 12z Euro with a weak storm into LA. Possibly not even a TS. Wow.

I have a really hard time believing this considering the environment in the gulf. Especially now that it may move far enough west that it could stay off the coast of Cuba

[NevadaFan18]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 57664?s=20

Levi's take on the 12z euro

[setxweathergal64]

If this ends up in Galveston or south of there which seems unlikely as of right now then Houston would have big problems. If it ends up east of there then Houston would be spared for the most part.

And by the time we know for sure, we will be fighting remnants of marco and many other evacuees. Uggh it is so hard to wait and see to know when to get the heck out of dodge.

My plan is to see what the models look like tomorrow night and leave early Tuesday if there are no more drastic swings

I just dont want to wait and go with everyone else.

[St0rmTh0r]

Well throw that Euro run in the trash wit the rest

[St0rmTh0r]

And by the time we know for sure, we will be fighting remnants of marco and many other evacuees. Uggh it is so hard to wait and see to know when to get the heck out of dodge.

My plan is to see what the models look like tomorrow night and leave early Tuesday if there are no more drastic swings

I just dont want to wait and go with everyone else.

It's better to be safe than sorry. If there's a chance to go then go I wouldn't play around with this especially If I loved near the coast

[Highteeld]

I think the end result of what happens will be somewhere ranging from the HWRF and the GFS. The Icon and the Euro are still not resolving (and neither is the GFS) Marco properly, which is screwing a lot of track/shear guidance up.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297597443593457664?s=20

Levi's take on the 12z euro

Good take as always, it's definitely way too weak with Marco in the short term (weakens Marco to a depression before landfall tomorrow).

This is a very suspicious run. I'm tempted to disregard it, but that's usually never a good thing to do with the Euro. We'll need to monitor the trends with Marco over the next 24 hours. If it dramatically weakens, the ECMWF may be onto something with a less favorable upper level environment in the Gulf.

That being said, the ECMWF has done perhaps the poorest with intensity so far with Marco.

[KWT]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297597443593457664?s=20

Levi's take on the 12z euro

Yeah it pretty much instantly weakens Marco and stalls it from about 06z tomorrow.

It also appears to start Laura a little too far north. Usually these sorts of things don't matter much but 30 miles means the difference between a long trek over high mountain and it staying just offshore. Huge real world difference.

Finally, the ECM has been a bit of a disaster this season with intensity, one of the worst I've seen it have in my 16 years watching storms.

[crownweather]

 https://twitter.com/ahberrington/status/1297597790403559424

[MississippiWx]

I have a hard time believing the Euro. This storm has traversed Hispaniola intact. A tropical storm/minimal hurricane seems questionable. Whatever is left of Marco won’t have enough of an influence to weaken a storm this size. Marco is tiny.

There are likely other issues behind the Euro’s solution other than Marco. Strange.

I will say that the Euro is very close to the CMC, so it’s not alone. The GFS ensembles also cluster around a SE Louisiana landfall.

Lots of questions left to answer.