ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/rcavada/status/1297541179807072258

[gfsperpendicular]

HWRF continues to do well short term:

[eastcoastFL]

Map of watches and warnings up in Louisiana. I know these are for Marco but with the timing they will probably apply to both storms since there won’t be time to evacuate for Laura during Marco.

[Kazmit]

HWRF continues to do well short term:
https://i.imgur.com/XQ9kkXF.png
https://i.imgur.com/Cyz8OSw.png

Wow, it got the location of the strongest convection to the S spot on.

[Steve]

Now that we have a good amount of Louisiana folks on the board what effects would a land falling cat 3/4 west of NOLA have on the city? I just keep thinking of how awful evacuations were with Katrina and how in the world they would handle this with Covid. I guess you can’t exactly squeeze everyone into the Saints stadium this time around. Do they have contingency plans in place already?

It depends on how far west. When Andrew hit Morgan City, we got sustained 40's and some gusts into the 60's I think. It didn't flood. If it comes closer than that, you have the surge potential coming in from the south and wrapping from the southeast. That floods everything outside of the levee protection systems but how much comes in and piles up and how bad surge gets depends on how close the storm landfalls. We'd also possibly see a prolonged period of feeder bands and could flood. Anything past Morgan City usually has limited effects here but it depends on the size of the storm. Rita brought tropical storm conditions whereas others brought 15-20mph winds and sprinkles. Lili got us 6 or 7 really nice bands, but that was kind of the nature of the system.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[Jr0d]

It seems most are focused on next week and not so much what is happening real time.

Laura's LLC is about to run into the mountains of Cuba. This will be a major disruption. The HWRF shows the center staying south and intact but inialized southwest of the actual center. It looks like the GFS makes this an open wave. It looks unlikely a center will reform on the north coast.

The next couple hours will make a big difference on the future track and the impact on the Florida Keys. The south and east trend of models is making it look like the Keys won't get much.

[AtlanticWind]

Well so much for Hispanola disrupting Laura, she came out with a more pronounced circulation.
We will see what happens with cuba but I am not optimistic.

I think we will likely have a major in the gulf.

[tarheelprogrammer]

One of my favorite satellite views/sites: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined thank me later

[Kazmit]

It seems most are focused on next week and not so much what is happening real time.

Laura's LLC is about to run into the mountains of Cuba. This will be a major disruption. The HWRF shows the center staying south and intact but inialized southwest of the actual center. It looks like the GFS makes this an open wave. It looks unlikely a center will reform on the north coast.

The next couple hours will make a big difference on the future track and the impact on the Florida Keys. The south and east trend of models is making it look like the Keys won't get much.

If Hispaniola was not an issue why would Cuba be?

[NDG]

Amazing how fast the LLC reorganized.

[Aric Dunn]

Intensifying quickly and still heading due west..

closed low level eyewall.

[Jr0d]

It seems most are focused on next week and not so much what is happening real time.

Laura's LLC is about to run into the mountains of Cuba. This will be a major disruption. The HWRF shows the center staying south and intact but inialized southwest of the actual center. It looks like the GFS makes this an open wave. It looks unlikely a center will reform on the north coast.

The next couple hours will make a big difference on the future track and the impact on the Florida Keys. The south and east trend of models is making it look like the Keys won't get much.

If Hispaniola was not an issue why would Cuba be?

It did not have a well defined center when it went through Hispaniola. Now there is a well defined LLC that is going straight into some mountains.

Laura will be looking ragged soon. That is one thing all the models agree upon.

[Comradez]

The center looks to be skirting about 20 miles south of Guantanamo Bay as we speak. Heading just north of west. May clip the SW corner of Cuba, and there is indeed some mountainous terrain there, although not as bad as the SE corner that most models had Laura going over. I doubt that it will fully disrupt the circulation, although I could see some dry air getting into the circulation from downsloping winds coming down from the mountains to its north. Once Laura passes the SW tip of Cuba, it will be over very high oceanic heat content water, and the Cuban terrain up the rest of the island is fairly flat, so even if there is some interaction on the north side of the storm, its effects will probably not be debilitating. Remember how Hurricane Gustav strengthened to cat 4 around the same area in 2008? If Laura tracks far enough offshore to the south, it's possible.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

It seems most are focused on next week and not so much what is happening real time.

Laura's LLC is about to run into the mountains of Cuba. This will be a major disruption. The HWRF shows the center staying south and intact but inialized southwest of the actual center. It looks like the GFS makes this an open wave. It looks unlikely a center will reform on the north coast.

The next couple hours will make a big difference on the future track and the impact on the Florida Keys. The south and east trend of models is making it look like the Keys won't get much.

GFS initialization is too far north, which results in much more significant land interaction.

[bohai]

Just booked 5 nights in San Antonio Hilton starting Thursday.

With 7 dogs, I'll be riding it out in my mobile home. However, I do have a to go bag etc. packed in the car just in case. Going to be crowded lol. I'm more prepared for rhis one than I've ever been...adding something new after each one.

Not sure you were around for Rita. There were predictions of 150 mph winds up to NW Houston. No way I would stay in a mobile home if this happens.

[eastcoastFL]

It seems most are focused on next week and not so much what is happening real time.

Laura's LLC is about to run into the mountains of Cuba. This will be a major disruption. The HWRF shows the center staying south and intact but inialized southwest of the actual center. It looks like the GFS makes this an open wave. It looks unlikely a center will reform on the north coast.

The next couple hours will make a big difference on the future track and the impact on the Florida Keys. The south and east trend of models is making it look like the Keys won't get much.

I don’t know. The nhc doesn’t seem to think it’ll be an issue at all and they were correct about Hispaniola. It does not appear that they believe this gfs solution for track or they’re unsure so they’re splitting the difference with the euro

INIT 23/1500Z 19.2N 73.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 20.3N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/1200Z 21.6N 79.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR CUBA
36H 25/0000Z 22.9N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1200Z 24.1N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER

[ConvergenceZone]

Winds down slightly to 45mph. We will see if it can maintain tropical storm status. It's still possible it can weaken to a depression going over the mountains , especially that's only 6 mph or so less than what it is now

[hohnywx]

Winds down slightly to 45mph. We will see if it can maintain tropical storm status. It's still possible it can weaken to a depression going over the mountains , especially that's only 6 mph or so less than what it is now

Where do you see that?

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES