ATL: LAURA - Models

[Beef Stew]

HWRF takes the 1900 Galveston Hurricane and juices it. While the CAT 5 intensity is likely overdone... it's ominous, to say the least.

[aspen]

Most likely a CAT5 by looking at simulated IR. Strongest HWRF run yet.

138 kt at the surface, 175 kts at 850mb. That's insane

Talk about an absolutely nuclear HWRF run. It’s picking up on some excellent conditions in the Gulf.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS Ensembles

[northjaxpro]

Nuclear HWRF run
https://i.imgur.com/EtGFdbM.png

This would be catastrophic if this comes to fruition. Down right frightening if this happens anywhere, let alone SE TX Gulf region.

[stormlover2013]

12Z GFS Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/KrEMJ1P.png

U can tell that intialized bad

[BigB0882]

My mom keeps asking me for updates and I don’t want to tell her what I’m seeing. Parents live in Beaumont and flooded during Harvey. Mom has serious PTSD and telling her that models are showing this is just not something she can handle.

[Nederlander]

12Z GFS Ensembles

https://i.imgur.com/KrEMJ1P.png

Really bad run with that initialization.

[Nederlander]

My mom keeps asking me for updates and I don’t want to tell her what I’m seeing. Parents live in Beaumont and flooded during Harvey. Mom has serious PTSD and telling her that models are showing this is just not something she can handle.

I live just south of there and planning to leave Tuesday. I would tell her to plan the same. If forecast track doesn’t do anything crazy and Laura doesn’t fall apart over Cuba, then I think it’s likely Jefferson County calls for evacuation on Tuesday. All speculative, but I would be prepared.

[tolakram]

HWRF 12Z run

[St0rmTh0r]

My mom keeps asking me for updates and I don’t want to tell her what I’m seeing. Parents live in Beaumont and flooded during Harvey. Mom has serious PTSD and telling her that models are showing this is just not something she can handle.

Better to tell her than not tell her and she finds out 9n her own!

[Steve]

My mom keeps asking me for updates and I don’t want to tell her what I’m seeing. Parents live in Beaumont and flooded during Harvey. Mom has serious PTSD and telling her that models are showing this is just not something she can handle.

Tell her it's too early to say for sure, but that she's at least in the line of fire (if not the bullseye) and to begin doing all the basic stuff to get it out of the way. Gas up the cars, get the water and freeze as much as she can, pick up the loose objects and all possible projectiles. Do laundry. Tell her take the phase 1 steps so she doesn't get caught in rushes or long lines for basic stuff she needs. She can always do more stuff Monday and Tuesday if the threat solidifies. That's lifting stuff off the floor, putting away fragile items that can break and other heavier lifting projects you'd want to happen for a Cat 3/4.

[St0rmTh0r]

Nuclear HWRF run
https://i.imgur.com/EtGFdbM.png

Doesn't get much worse than that catastrophic disaster if that were to verify

[Haris]

Not as important but y’all notice how it just kept moving into TX rather than curving to the north east on both the HMON and HWRF?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles. Wonder why they are really not making Laura strong? CMC landfalls at 996MB and NAVGEM 989MB. Seems low considering the ideal environment in the Gulf.

[Nederlander]

12Z GFS ensembles. Wonder why they are really not making Laura strong? CMC landfalls at 996MB and NAVGEM 989MB. Seems low considering the ideal environment in the Gulf.

https://i.postimg.cc/2S1T0vhV/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-12.png

Because of poor initialization, causing more land interaction with Cuba?

[HouTXmetro]

Not as important but y’all notice how it just kept moving into TX rather than curving to the north east on both the HMON and HWRF?

Maybe speaks to the strength of the High Pressure Ridge?

[Highteeld]

12z Euro on track to produce a weak storm. Very uncertain what happens from here.

reminds me a lot of what the ICON did in regards to the Fujiwara with Marco

[gqhebert]

Not as important but y’all notice how it just kept moving into TX rather than curving to the north east on both the HMON and HWRF?

That heading at landfall is indicating a stronger ridge.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 48 hours, indeed weaker than the 00Z:

[snoop9928]

We live right on the NW side of the inner loop in Houston. If this keeps looking bad, we may head to Austin to stay with sister in law. We were both in school in Austin back when Ike hit so aren't in tune with when to haul ass out of here. If we left Tuesday would we would screwed with traffic or do you think that's early enough to get out?