ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1297513603130691584

[sponger]

Looking awfully healthy this morning. A high risk of a major in a few days. At least it may spare New Orleans but this could be one large strong beast to threaten Texas and Western LA in a way not seen since Harvey. I would be finishing prepping today and avoid the coming chaos. If you are coastal and need to move out of harm's way, a hotel reservation where you can cancel same day is your first priority. Just plan on leaving in the middle of the night because we all remember the Rita fiasco from inlanders fleeing when they should have stayed put.

[tolakram]

[Nederlander]

Looking awfully healthy this morning. A high risk of a major in a few days. At least it may spare New Orleans but this could be one large strong beast to threaten Texas in a way not seen since Harvey. I would be finishing prepping today and avoid the coming chaos.

Yep, I have my evac plans in place here in Port Arthur, gassed up and ready. Just have to secure some outdoor objects today. Local Mets beginning to sound the alarm that people need to be ready.

[sponger]

Looking awfully healthy this morning. A high risk of a major in a few days. At least it may spare New Orleans but this could be one large strong beast to threaten Texas in a way not seen since Harvey. I would be finishing prepping today and avoid the coming chaos.

Yep, I have my evac plans in place here in Port Arthur, gassed up and ready. Just have to secure some outdoor objects today. Local Mets beginning to sound the alarm that people need to be ready.

Definitely not your first Rodeo! Glad you are ready! Where is your bug out location? I would think San Antonio would be ideal for anyone looking to get out of dodge in your area.

[Michele B]

https://imgur.com/Ka9u6su

This clip looks like the CoC is on the south side and has missed the mountains.

[northjaxpro]

Laura is looking very impressive this morning. She is still expanding in size and the outflow is very impressive. Basically, looking downstream, it is an extremely ominous outlook for interests particularly along the North Central and Northwest Gulf in Louisiana and Texas in a few days. Conditions really appear to be as favorable as it can be for Laura to become an extremely dangerous major tropical cyclone.

[Aric Dunn]

Cant believe this scrapped along the entire south coast of HIspaniola.

from some surface obs and recon and satellite

center is somewhere near Port Au prine or just south..

could easily go south of Cuba as well at this point before hitting the weakness behind Marco.

[aspen]

Still an awfully broad system, and now it looks like we’re even less certain where the center will reform/tighten up. Will it attempt to go north? Will it try to go south of Cuba? Will it continue to ride the islands?

[SoupBone]

Cant believe this scrapped along the entire south coast of HIspaniola.

from some surface obs and recon and satellite

center is somewhere near Port Au prine or just south..

could easily go south of Cuba as well at this point before hitting the weakness behind Marco.

I've asked this previously, but wouldn't this also mean following in Marco's path?

[1900hurricane]

Posted the 12Z SHIPS output in the model thread, but I think it's worth sharing this bit of it here.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
...
SHEAR (KT) 11 14 16 17 16 9 11 4 12 12 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 1 -2 1 -2 -3 -2 3

[Nederlander]

Looking awfully healthy this morning. A high risk of a major in a few days. At least it may spare New Orleans but this could be one large strong beast to threaten Texas in a way not seen since Harvey. I would be finishing prepping today and avoid the coming chaos.

Yep, I have my evac plans in place here in Port Arthur, gassed up and ready. Just have to secure some outdoor objects today. Local Mets beginning to sound the alarm that people need to be ready.

Definitely not your first Rodeo! Glad you are ready! Where is your bug out location? I would think San Antonio would be ideal for anyone looking to get out of dodge in your area.

I will be heading to Dallas. More road options heading north than there is going west. Plus, I want to avoid Houston traffic if at all possible.

[Aric Dunn]

Cant believe this scrapped along the entire south coast of HIspaniola.

from some surface obs and recon and satellite

center is somewhere near Port Au prine or just south..

could easily go south of Cuba as well at this point before hitting the weakness behind Marco.

I've asked this previously, but wouldn't this also mean following in Marco's path?

it would not follow it exactly of course.. but would at the very least allow for a bend in the track. hard to say at this point.


but there is a weakness as long as Marco continues to exist at the mid levels.

[sponger]

Yep, I have my evac plans in place here in Port Arthur, gassed up and ready. Just have to secure some outdoor objects today. Local Mets beginning to sound the alarm that people need to be ready.

Definitely not your first Rodeo! Glad you are ready! Where is your bug out location? I would think San Antonio would be ideal for anyone looking to get out of dodge in your area.

I will be heading to Dallas. More road options heading north than there is going west. Plus, I want to avoid Houston traffic if at all possible.

Now that is a bug out plan! Right at the edge of my maximum evac at 300 miles. Leave at 2 am and you are there in four hours, leave at 8 am and it can be 20 hours. Always avoid the herd at all costs.

[northjaxpro]

Cant believe this scrapped along the entire south coast of HIspaniola.

from some surface obs and recon and satellite

center is somewhere near Port Au prine or just south..

could easily go south of Cuba as well at this point before hitting the weakness behind Marco.

I've asked this previously, but wouldn't this also mean following in Marco's path?

That is what Laura will ultimately do , provided that Marco does not become a very strong cyclone, which could leave behind a bigger weakness. However, if it goes as forecast, Marco will weaken as it approaches the North Central Gulf late Monday, and the ridge will build in strong to guide Laura right on Marco's heels as he exits the area.

[NDG]

All Marco is doing is moistening the environment ahead for Laura, remaining weak as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane do to windshear is not going to upwell much cooler waters in the GOM.Laura will continue to have the best UL conditions and while it maintains a vigorous ML circulation the high terrain of Hispaniola & Cuba will not do too much to it.

[SoupBone]

Cant believe this scrapped along the entire south coast of HIspaniola.

from some surface obs and recon and satellite

center is somewhere near Port Au prine or just south..

could easily go south of Cuba as well at this point before hitting the weakness behind Marco.

I've asked this previously, but wouldn't this also mean following in Marco's path?

That is what Laura will ultimately do , provided that Marco does not become a very strong cyclone, which could leave behind a bigger weakness. However, if it goes as forecast, Marco will weaken as it approaches the North Central Gulf late Monday, and the ridge will build in strong to guide Laura right on Marco's heels.

Right, and I guess that's my point. Following in Marco's weakness, at least mostly, would still lend itself to a Central Louisiana solution unless the ridge builds back in faster than expected behind Marco. So Marco's timing and placement will be key to Laura's ultimate arrival track.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Laura's a 2nd example this year that Hispaniola doesn't always end up being detrimental to storms. The stronger storms with tight cores take a harsher beating and sometimes just outright die after interacting with the mountains while very weak poorly put together storms don't see much of a negative effect

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1297523628204937222

[sponger]

I've asked this previously, but wouldn't this also mean following in Marco's path?

That is what Laura will ultimately do , provided that Marco does not become a very strong cyclone, which could leave behind a bigger weakness. However, if it goes as forecast, Marco will weaken as it approaches the North Central Gulf late Monday, and the ridge will build in strong to guide Laura right on Marco's heels.

Right, and I guess that's my point. Following in Marco's weakness, at least mostly, would still lend itself to a Central Louisiana solution unless the ridge builds back in faster than expected behind Marco. So Marco's timing and placement will be key to Laura's ultimate arrival track.

"unless the ridge builds back in"
That is exactly what the Euro is forecasting. It seems to have a better grasp than the GPS on the more Southern track over Cuba and may end up nailing the expanding ridge as well.