Blinhart wrote:3090 wrote:Steve wrote:HMON goes up Mobile Bay but continues to weaken. That's a nightmare scenario dodged because of a weaker storm, but there are lots of homes along the rivers and places subject to tidal flooding.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2300&fh=45
Blah blah blah....on the HMON. The NHC at this point has the track solidified, say within 50 miles either side of a forecast point, for landfall. The only thing remaining and is always the somewhat unpredictable at this juncture, is intensity at landfall. If you are worried about the landfall location, you can know that it will be slightly east or west of the mouth of the Mississippi river. Put the models away at this point. Just my .02 from watching the pros at the NHC for over 30 years.
Normally I would agree with you, but this is something that hasn't happened too often, so we aren't sure of what is happening, and the shift of 50 miles is a big difference
It was just a misplaced model thread post blin. I don’t even like the HMON. I didn’t even agree with the model output and didn’t offer a judgment call. That was just commentary on the output track on a geographical location that is a sitting duck in more consequential situations. But it’s whatever and expected.
