ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

Good old Laura, giving all of us the big middle finger and not giving a single damn what we expect it to do. That southward center reformation was not what I was expecting, and now I’m starting to doubt it’ll ever get north of the GAs.

Yesterday I was joking around and suggesting it could go south of the islands. I guess Laura read that and took it seriously.

Does it look like this could miss Hispaniola completely to the south? I haven’t seen any visuals of location lately.

[eastcoastFL]

Good old Laura, giving all of us the big middle finger and not giving a single damn what we expect it to do. That southward center reformation was not what I was expecting, and now I’m starting to doubt it’ll ever get north of the GAs.

Yesterday I was joking around and suggesting it could go south of the islands. I guess Laura read that and took it seriously.

Looks like you nailed it with the south call.

[Hammy]

Will this new revelation get baked into the 0z runs?

It might be too late as the initialization would've been about two hours ago, but the 6z runs should be quite interesting.

[eastcoastFL]

Will this new revelation get baked into the 0z runs?

It might be too late as the initialization would've been about two hours ago, but the 6z runs should be quite interesting.

Interestingly the 18z HWRF has a 1000mb low right where recon just found that llc. From there it heads north West into the middle of the island

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty good pressure drop and wind increase just north of the island where recon is right now

[Steve]

Understand your point and agree with it wjs3. I think it was a joke and he brought it back up. No big deal either way. Many have tried to **** with 57 only to find themselves in the ash heap of history. haha

Day took a wrong turn and prevented me from tracking storms. Someone turned on the washing machine on a medium sized load and the machine decided it didn't want to stop filling. 4 hours later, out of the blue I decided to wash towels. I went downstairs to the laundry room and it was flooded. /smdh One of my kids had crates of clothes just sitting on the floor, and he had to go to work. It was about 105 in that room and I spent the better part of 5 hours doing laundry and monitoring it so it didn't overflow again (never could duplicate the overflow - think it might have been slightly offset in no man's land a tick or two off of medium sized setting. Plus all the tents and camping gear were on the ground down there (concrete floor) and had to be dried.

Hopefully this wasn't a test run for the week to see how much I really wanted to be dealing with wet stuff.

Models have me gulping, but like Gatorcane said, maybe these won't be Cat 1/Cat 3 and we'll get a lower-level compromise. I'll be perfectly fine with that. Now that everything is done (9 hours after starting cleanup), I can watch the 00z models roll in - provided I don't fall asleep first. haha Cheers.

[Kazmit]

Once again a storm is defying expectations. Almost the entire system is south of Hispaniola.

[Highteeld]

Once again a storm is defying expectations. Almost the entire system is south of Hispaniola.

https://iili.io/d8FwG9.gif

Making the UKmet track look more believable

[eastcoastFL]

Once again a storm is defying expectations. Almost the entire system is south of Hispaniola.

https://iili.io/d8FwG9.gif

I didn’t see that coming at all. It should start wobbling back to the NW in the next few hours. Doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of weakening so the nhc forecast of maintaining 50mph TS over Hispaniola looks legit.

[CaribJam]

Once again a storm is defying expectations. Almost the entire system is south of Hispaniola.

https://iili.io/d8FwG9.gif

Warning for Jamaica and Cayman Islands likely at 11pm, if the centre is confirmed to be further south of Hispaniola.

Then what will happen with the tracks/models and intensity projections, only time will tell...

[eastcoastFL]

Is he recon heading home already?

[Nimbus]

Largest pressure drop was under those red 58 knot wind barbs along the north shore.
There might have been a LLC just inland that got mulched by the mountain ridge just inland.
We will see for sure tomorrow morning.
It was an important test..

[aspen]

Good old Laura, giving all of us the big middle finger and not giving a single damn what we expect it to do. That southward center reformation was not what I was expecting, and now I’m starting to doubt it’ll ever get north of the GAs.

Yesterday I was joking around and suggesting it could go south of the islands. I guess Laura read that and took it seriously.

Looks like you nailed it with the south call.

Not yet. Laura is still poorly organized, and a jump to the north might still be possible, although it would probably happen around Cuba instead of Hispaniola.

[cp79]

Once again a storm is defying expectations. Almost the entire system is south of Hispaniola.

https://iili.io/d8FwG9.gif

Making the UKmet track look more believable

That’s great news for us, bad news for Laura.
That means it’s gonna have to go over the highest mountains. She’s got a tough battle Ahead The next 48 Hours. If she comes out of this alive, she’s a tough one.

[MississippiWx]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

[eastcoastFL]

Good old Laura, giving all of us the big middle finger and not giving a single damn what we expect it to do. That southward center reformation was not what I was expecting, and now I’m starting to doubt it’ll ever get north of the GAs.

Yesterday I was joking around and suggesting it could go south of the islands. I guess Laura read that and took it seriously.

Looks like you nailed it with the south call.

Not yet. Laura is still poorly organized, and a jump to the north might still be possible, although it would probably happen around Cuba instead of Hispaniola.

I was just going off the HWRF. It had the center south of DR here but then went over the island in the next frame 3hrs later

[eastcoastFL]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

[Hammy]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

Winds are also out of the east and southeast on the coast further confirming the circulation is over water to the south.

[MississippiWx]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

I see what they found, but a cyclonic turn in the winds doesn't mean it's not just another Vort rotating around a common center. If you look at the rest of the data, the lowest pressures found by recon were north of Hispaniola, not south.

[wx98]

Is he recon heading home already?

Probably. They have a long way to go back to Lakeland.