ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone have a good DR radar link?

[sphelps8681]

Well I can say is things can change by tomorrow. Not counting my chickens till they get in GOM.

[eastcoastFL]

I think pulling out random storms with similar paths and calling them analogs isn’t really the smartest thing. Every storm is different. And all of those storms had different situations and paths. Unless the pattern is identical, a path will not follow the same way (or really close). Intensity will most certainly not be the same, so throwing up Cat 4s on here doesn’t mean this will be a Cat 4 in the same place, or even at all. Not to say for certain that Laura won’t be a Cat 4, but guidance at the current time is against that.

It is interesting that all of them traversed the islands and popped out as a TS before entering the gulf.

[Keldeo1997]

If Laura gets far enough South where Jamaica is in play then it will have to deal will its Mountains to.

[CaribJam]

Lowest pressures recon found so far were 1003.3 mb along the north coast of the DR mostly above 1006 mb's with 50 knot winds in the Mona passage. See if they find anything below 1006 mb's south of the DR, some of that convection was from the circulation going over the mountains but if they find a southern vort with a pressure drop..

Have they tagged a center yet? Looks like the last recon flight into Marco found lower pressure then Laura but Laura seems to have higher winds. The highest wind I saw on Marco was 45kts last flight unless I missed something

https://i.imgur.com/qd8sboq.png
https://i.imgur.com/528s9bK.png

Looks like it's pretty clearly closed now and a bit south of 18N 69W.

Hammy,
Please explain where in this image is the west wind indicated.

[bob rulz]

I think pulling out random storms with similar paths and calling them analogs isn’t really the smartest thing. Every storm is different. And all of those storms had different situations and paths. Unless the pattern is identical, a path will not follow the same way (or really close). Intensity will most certainly not be the same, so throwing up Cat 4s on here doesn’t mean this will be a Cat 4 in the same place, or even at all. Not to say for certain that Laura won’t be a Cat 4, but guidance at the current time is against that.

I think the point is just to show that just because it crosses the GA doesn't at all mean that it can't bomb out over the Gulf.

[Beef Stew]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/746893015259283547/Laura_Analogues.png

3 Analogs for Gulf Coast Major's that Tracked over GA's

I mentioned this earlier in the models thread, but I'll put it again here. For what it's worth, the Last Island Hurricane of 1856 may be an applicable analog. Although it was only first recorded as a minimal hurricane near the Dry Tortugas, it may well have tracked over the GA's as a TS or TD previously in its lifespan.

[Hammy]

Have they tagged a center yet? Looks like the last recon flight into Marco found lower pressure then Laura but Laura seems to have higher winds. The highest wind I saw on Marco was 45kts last flight unless I missed something

https://i.imgur.com/qd8sboq.png
https://i.imgur.com/528s9bK.png

Looks like it's pretty clearly closed now and a bit south of 18N 69W.

Hammy,
Please explain where in this image is the west wind indicated.

White barbs a bit northeast of the plane--winds change from SW, to W, to NW as it passes indicating at least the southern portion of the circulation. The last several days they've struggled to find any W or NW winds.

[eastcoastFL]

That center is well below the DR. So if it misses it to the south does it mean a more westerly track?

[wx98]

I think pulling out random storms with similar paths and calling them analogs isn’t really the smartest thing. Every storm is different. And all of those storms had different situations and paths. Unless the pattern is identical, a path will not follow the same way (or really close). Intensity will most certainly not be the same, so throwing up Cat 4s on here doesn’t mean this will be a Cat 4 in the same place, or even at all. Not to say for certain that Laura won’t be a Cat 4, but guidance at the current time is against that.

I think the point is just to show that just because it crosses the GA doesn't at all mean that it can't bomb out over the Gulf.

That can happen for sure. But it seems to be giving the vibe that this is gonna bomb out into a Category 4 and hit LA, which currently is not the forecast.

[CaribJam]

https://i.imgur.com/qd8sboq.png
https://i.imgur.com/528s9bK.png

Looks like it's pretty clearly closed now and a bit south of 18N 69W.

Hammy,
Please explain where in this image is the west wind indicated.

White barbs a bit northeast of the plane--winds change from SW, to W, to NW as it passes indicating at least the southern portion of the circulation. The last several days they've struggled to find any W or NW winds.

Is that suggesting that the centre may be in the vicinity of 17.5N and 69.5W?

[eastcoastFL]

If that’s the main llc south of DR it looks like most of the wind is still to the NE. I hope they fly and a little more north of the llc and west.

[Hammy]

Hammy,
Please explain where in this image is the west wind indicated.

White barbs a bit northeast of the plane--winds change from SW, to W, to NW as it passes indicating at least the southern portion of the circulation. The last several days they've struggled to find any W or NW winds.

Is that suggesting that the centre may be in the vicinity of 17.5N and 69.5W?

Looks like it. Could be redeveloping to the south closer to the convection, though I'd wait for a met's take on that given the complexity.

[Nederlander]

That center is well below the DR. So if it misses it to the south does it mean a more westerly track?



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

That’s the thinking more than likely, and could potentially play a role in intensity too. Question is on if it clears Cuba to the south as the UKM has been showing or travels more NW. A lot still left to play out.

[CaribJam]

White barbs a bit northeast of the plane--winds change from SW, to W, to NW as it passes indicating at least the southern portion of the circulation. The last several days they've struggled to find any W or NW winds.

Is that suggesting that the centre may be in the vicinity of 17.5N and 69.5W?

Looks like it. Could be redeveloping to the south closer to the convection, though I'd wait for a met's take on that given the complexity.

https://i.imgur.com/I7P7Pny.png

I totally understand. So, we are both waiting...

[CrazyC83]

White barbs a bit northeast of the plane--winds change from SW, to W, to NW as it passes indicating at least the southern portion of the circulation. The last several days they've struggled to find any W or NW winds.

Is that suggesting that the centre may be in the vicinity of 17.5N and 69.5W?

Looks like it. Could be redeveloping to the south closer to the convection, though I'd wait for a met's take on that given the complexity.

https://i.imgur.com/I7P7Pny.png

I remember with Gustav - and with Dorian - a single center relocation changed the entire situation completely. If this redevelops south, it may very well stay farther south. Are ensembles considered with different start points? I'd be curious to see how it behaves with a center south of the islands, all else equal.

[eastcoastFL]

White barbs a bit northeast of the plane--winds change from SW, to W, to NW as it passes indicating at least the southern portion of the circulation. The last several days they've struggled to find any W or NW winds.

Is that suggesting that the centre may be in the vicinity of 17.5N and 69.5W?

Looks like it. Could be redeveloping to the south closer to the convection, though I'd wait for a met's take on that given the complexity.

https://i.imgur.com/I7P7Pny.png

It would explain why there’s so much convection south of DR.

[aspen]

Good old Laura, giving all of us the big middle finger and not giving a single damn what we expect it to do. That southward center reformation was not what I was expecting, and now I’m starting to doubt it’ll ever get north of the GAs.

Yesterday I was joking around and suggesting it could go south of the islands. I guess Laura read that and took it seriously.

[Nederlander]

Will this new revelation get baked into the 0z runs?

[Hammy]

https://imgur.com/inZB202 Imgur being peculiar with what it wants to allow as a gif or turn into a video, oh well.

You can watch the LLC go through the Mona Passage around 17-21z and sort of move a bit WSW as the MLC from earlier rotates around and they appear to meet up around 00z. Unfortunately this is about it for radar coverage until after it passes Haiti.