#2 Postby euro6208 » Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:51 am
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
32.2N 136.3E, APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL TURNING. A 221629Z AMSR2 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME LOW-
LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. A 221030Z SCATSAT
IMAGE DEPICTS A BAND OF 30-35KT WINDS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT IS INHIBITED BY THE OUTFLOW OF TC 09W, AND WARM (30-31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
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