ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

https://i.imgur.com/56PrFDS.jpg

what you trying show?

[SoupBone]

What is the probability, if any, of Laura making a westward jog back for a Texas landfall?

This story is far from being over, lots of variables left in play. SETX is still very much still in play at this point.

[Nederlander]

What is the probability, if any, of Laura making a westward jog back for a Texas landfall?

Very much still in play depending on the strength of the ridge building back in

[stormwatcher95]

https://i.imgur.com/56PrFDS.jpg

what you trying show?

Just updating on the current microwave presentation. Some of the mets here add thoughts.

[Keldeo1997]

Here we go MLC is coming back alive

[sphelps8681]

It seems that tracks are going more east. But for Laura I am a little hesitant to think it will be Louisiana track as so many now are forecasting. One local met in my area says we are in the clear another says just the opposite. The NWS Lake Charles says we won't know until tomorrow or Monday. Kinda of confusing and may put people a little lax in if it will come their way. We are still in the cone and it seems like weather channels are like this is all Louisiana. I know all this can change by morning but it seems they should say we don't know all things instead of all things are going to have a certain outcome. Not sure if I should still be prepared or go to the beach and do a little fishing. UGH!!

[aspen]

Based on the final visible frames for today, the overall wave envelope is offset a little to the north, and the mean center is around the NE tip of the DR.

[eastcoastFL]

It’s hard to find the center but it looks like it’s heading on shore at the NE edge of DR but I could be very wrong

I’m using Arics tool

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?produc ... imate=true

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.imgur.com/56PrFDS.jpg

what you trying show?

Just updating on the current microwave presentation. Some of the mets here add thoughts.

You can really see how it’s structure shaped up quick over the last 24hrs

[eastcoastFL]

Based on the final visible frames for today, the overall wave envelope is offset a little to the north, and the mean center is around the NE tip of the DR.

I was just saying the same thing. But I wasn’t sure. It was hard to identify

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully the keys won't have to worry about a hurricane this season. They know they don't need to worry about Laura being a hurricane in that area, but there's still quite a bit of hurricane season left though.. Hopefully if the Keys get tropical storm winds from laura,it won't be too bad.

They know? No one can be certain. Not until it passes your location. If I lived in the Keys, I would be watching carefully the next 24 hours

Oh, I think tropical storm winds are definitely possible in the keys....They even mentioned that on the weather channel

[Highteeld]

What is the probability, if any, of Laura making a westward jog back for a Texas landfall?

A fair amount of the 12z EPS member show the Texas landfall scenario very much on the table.

[txag2005]

It seems that tracks are going more east. But for Laura I am a little hesitant to think it will be Louisiana track as so many now are forecasting. One local met in my area says we are in the clear another says just the opposite. The NWS Lake Charles says we won't know until tomorrow or Monday. Kinda of confusing and may put people a little lax in if it will come their way. We are still in the cone and it seems like weather channels are like this is all Louisiana. I know all this can change by morning but it seems they should say we don't know all things instead of all things are going to have a certain outcome. Not sure if I should still be prepared or go to the beach and do a little fishing. UGH!!

It seems to me like things will continue to be very uncertain until we see how Laura gets through the islands, which unfortunately will take a couple days to play out.

Here in the Houston metro lots of people seem to think the threat is over. I know for myself I’m still very concerned about Laura and moderately concerned about Marco in terms of flooding.

[eastcoastFL]

So the nhc is putting the center on the SE tip of DR?



SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[MississippiWx]

Recon is heading that way now from Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA_dropsondes.png

That’s another upper level dropsonde mission.

Recon is on the ground until tomorrow.

I think it’s a regular recon mission. It says surface to 10000

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 22/2330Z
B. NOAA3 0713A LAURA
C. 22/2100Z
D. 19.5N
E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Yeah, that’s my fault.

I read a tweet from a hurricane hunter earlier today. Think he was just referring to his individual crew being grounded for the rest of the day, not all flights. Oops!

[Nimbus]

Recon mission number 6 has been flying down into the Mona passage, 45 knot winds just north of Hispaniola.
They might spot that mesovort or confirm the NHC location further south.

[Keldeo1997]

18Z HWRF projected IR at 00Z

00Z Actual

[Hammy]

So the nhc is putting the center on the SE tip of DR?



SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

They always go with continuity when the plane is out there en route until it's confirmed otherwise. Same reason we'll see strengthening hurricanes just seemingly stop and then jump quite a bit when the plane arrives.

[Kazmit]

Recon finding impressive winds, but they may be enhanced by the Mona passage.

[TheStormExpert]

Let’s all hope Laura struggles with dry air and shear like Marco is when it enters the Gulf or else it could be a significant storm.