ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

I agree gator. I mean how many times do we see a system approaching the islands and we are all commenting on how it's going to get shredded apart. But when Laura is forecast to potentially go over the same mountainous landmass, it's somehow going to be fine? That just doesn't make much sense to me, and contradicts what we usually know will happen....

Many storms have crossed the greater Antilles and survived ,Georges is one example

Perhaps the term "shredder" used in the past is referring to a different island then....

[eastcoastFL]

Hard to believe the "apparent" spinning center is almost 1/2 way through Puerto Rico already. Gonna move back offshore before you know it.

Ya, yesterday it looked like it would go down the center and now it’s taking a short cut from south to NW. tough one to forecast

[Keldeo1997]

HWRF winning

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746812215700488222/image0.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746812216178901112/image1.png

HWRF winning

It’s been amazingly accurate so far with track and presentation of structure.

[AtlanticWind]

I agree gator. I mean how many times do we see a system approaching the islands and we are all commenting on how it's going to get shredded apart. But when Laura is forecast to potentially go over the same mountainous landmass, it's somehow going to be fine? That just doesn't make much sense to me, and contradicts what we usually know will happen....

Many storms have crossed the greater Antilles and survived ,Georges is one example

Perhaps the term "shredder" used in the past is referring to a different island then....

Shredder doesnt always mean destroying storms, Hurricane David went from cat4 to cat 1
and Hispanola has destroyed SOME storms not all.

[Blown Away]

Pretty fascinating the Marco/Laura interaction, definitely caused more uncertainty than the norm.

[AtlanticWind]

For us in south Florida, NWS

For the early portion of next week, the weather pattern across South Florida will be influenced by how close Tropical Storm Laura passes by the region. As stated above, this will all depend on the strength of a ridge of high pressure located over the western Atlantic as well as the intensity of the Tropical Storm as it makes its closest pass. The latest computer model guidance continues to keep it passing off to the south, however, the exact track still remains highly uncertain and it could be close enough to still have potential impacts on South Florida such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Subtle changes in track and intensity can create significant changes to the exact impacts felt across the region. Residents and visitors to South Florida should continue to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Laura and updates to the forecast as the weekend progresses.

[cheezyWXguy]

Center over PR is taking some damage but still holding together reasonably well. Should come offshore between Arecibo and Cacao in the next hour

[Nimbus]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746812215700488222/image0.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746812216178901112/image1.png

HWRF winning

It’s been amazingly accurate so far with track and presentation of structure.

A Depression tracking back off the northern coastline of Hispaniola, not what you want to see if you live east of the Sabine river or in DaDe county

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Finding a place to evacuate was nvr so hard like it is today ... like normally we would go to north louisiana above i-10 or west to Texas. I know my area may be affected by 2 storms.

Marco would be a easy decision. I would go to Thibodaux or more north depending on strength. But when you throw Laura in as a possible major storm, it may really causes a difficult situation.

Tomorrow night they could start evacuation of our low lying areas bc of Marco but they would also have to start evacs for laura (possible everyone below I-10) at the same time. Maroc will cause traffic nightmares for anyone trying to leave for laura so evacuating everyone may need to happen soon.

I feel for all our discussion makers!!!! As of right now, im in plan zone but i want to be ready to book & go Tomorrow.

[SFLcane]

For us in south Florida, NWS

For the early portion of next week, the weather pattern across South Florida will be influenced by how close Tropical Storm Laura passes by the region. As stated above, this will all depend on the strength of a ridge of high pressure located over the western Atlantic as well as the intensity of the Tropical Storm as it makes its closest pass. The latest computer model guidance continues to keep it passing off to the south, however, the exact track still remains highly uncertain and it could be close enough to still have potential impacts on South Florida such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Subtle changes in track and intensity can create significant changes to the exact impacts felt across the region. Residents and visitors to South Florida should continue to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Laura and updates to the forecast as the weekend progresses.

Yes if the hwrf pans out some bands could get close to SFL.

[rigbyrigz]

Has an LLC and an MLC ever split off somehow and formed 2 separate TCs? Laura seems so cockeyed I'm thinking about a silver iodide experiment several decades back where the targeted storm became 2. (*or maybe that was rumor, or dreamed... been following these things since my first, in OpaLocka, Donna, 1960, but don't really recall the "One becomes Two" ever.)

*I decided to google this, and sure enough there was a seeding project, inclusive of some denials of what the outcome was, 1962-83... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_S ... hurricanes.

"you go your way I'll go mine" (LLC to MLC) lol

[PTPatrick]

Finding a place to evacuate was nvr so hard like it is today ... like normally we would go to north louisiana above i-10 or west to Texas. I know my area may be affected by 2 storms.

Marco would be a easy decision. I would go to Thibodaux or more north depending on strength. But when you throw Laura in as a possible major storm, it may really causes a difficult situation.

Tomorrow night they could start evacuation of our low lying areas bc of Marco but they would also have to start evacs for laura (possible everyone below I-10) at the same time. Maroc will cause traffic nightmares for anyone trying to leave for laura so evacuating everyone may need to happen soon.

I feel for all our discussion makers!!!! As of right now, im in plan zone but i want to be ready to book & go Tomorrow.

reality is that if you live in a low lying enough area that you would need to evac for Marco, tomorrow daytime is when to do it. tomorrow night will be the deadline as there wont be time Monday morning...unless you are into night driving. it all depends very much on size and strength and eventual landfall. so its tough. i suspect since marco should stay small and weaker authorities will hedge their bets and try and push all but the most low lying people to the immediate right of Marcos NHC path to just be ready to go Tuesday if Laura starts to look like a bad one.

Edit: I would add that New Orleans needs a good 2+ days for a katrina level evacuation so I dont envy the authorities there. Even with Mississippi and Mobile, trying to evac for a major hit in 1 day is going to be a tall order. My guess is lots of people will just shut down from the craziness of it all and stay put or go to family on high ground near by. Nobody in that area is used to evacuating 3 days in advance like the Keys.

[toad strangler]

For us in south Florida, NWS

For the early portion of next week, the weather pattern across South Florida will be influenced by how close Tropical Storm Laura passes by the region. As stated above, this will all depend on the strength of a ridge of high pressure located over the western Atlantic as well as the intensity of the Tropical Storm as it makes its closest pass. The latest computer model guidance continues to keep it passing off to the south, however, the exact track still remains highly uncertain and it could be close enough to still have potential impacts on South Florida such as heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Subtle changes in track and intensity can create significant changes to the exact impacts felt across the region. Residents and visitors to South Florida should continue to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Laura and updates to the forecast as the weekend progresses.

Yes if the hwrf pans out some bands could get close to SFL.

Mentioned that yesterday

[toad strangler]

I agree gator. I mean how many times do we see a system approaching the islands and we are all commenting on how it's going to get shredded apart. But when Laura is forecast to potentially go over the same mountainous landmass, it's somehow going to be fine? That just doesn't make much sense to me, and contradicts what we usually know will happen....

Many storms have crossed the greater Antilles and survived ,Georges is one example

Perhaps the term "shredder" used in the past is referring to a different island then....

Nope. It's the well structured mature cyclones that have much more to lose over the Shredder Chain. I feel like a broken record

[Highteeld]

Many storms have crossed the greater Antilles and survived ,Georges is one example

Perhaps the term "shredder" used in the past is referring to a different island then....

Nope. It's the well structured mature cyclones that have much more to lose over the Shredder Chain. Main I feel like a broken record

Those mountains were a power boost to Ice Ice Baby

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Regardless of your opinion on the HWRF's (likely nonsensical) long term outlook for Laura, there's no denying it's absolutely nailed the short term (24-36 hour) evolution of Laura over the past day.

[Blown Away]

The MLC will be reaching just E of the NW corner of PR about the time the NHC issues the 5pm advisory.

[TheStormExpert]

This is probably the best this things looked since it first got designated a TD several days ago.

[bella_may]

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/stat ... 60257?s=21