ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Based on the NHC, that LLC we were following seems to have been an eddy after all, looks like the three island track is coming up

Imagine this defies every single model and tracks south of the GAs, instead of reforming to the north or tracking over all three of them.

[Jr0d]

According to the radar it is almost certain that the new center of Laura is south of San Juan

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6605/zg[URL=https://imageshack.com/i/pnzgRwIbg][url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6605/zgRwIb.gif[/url] [/url]RwIb.gif[/url]

Agreed. Its vigorous and looks to be heading more WNW.

That is the MLC we see on radar, it does appear to be taking over and moving WNW. If it holds that course it will make in through the Mona Passage and skirt the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Based on the NHC, that LLC we were following seems to have been an eddy after all, looks like the three island track is coming up

Good news is the HWRF appears to be incorrect about going north of the islands. More land interaction and less time over water is a great thing.

[aspen]

Even with the triple-island track, the NHC has upped Laura’s peak intensity to 75 kt. Favorable conditions await for its two days in the Gulf.

[tarheelprogrammer]

According to the radar it is almost certain that the new center of Laura is south of San Juan

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6605/zg[URL=https://imageshack.com/i/pnzgRwIbg][url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6605/zgRwIb.gif[/url] [/url]RwIb.gif[/url]

Agreed. Its vigorous and looks to be heading more WNW.

That is the MLC we see on radar, it does appear to be taking over and moving WNW. If it holds that course it will make in through the Mona Passage and skirt the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

To me, it appears to be heading directly for DR. I think it makes a direct landfall on DR tonight

[Jr0d]

Accidental post so I will link the San Juan radar:

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/pr/san-juan/jua

[Aric Dunn]

looks like the NHC just split the difference. discussions say the center location is uncertain..


I would say as the llc north of PR gets north of the MONA passage it will gain back the southerly inflow and start to pop.

[eastcoastFL]

looks like the NHC just split the difference. discussions say the center location is uncertain..


I would say as the llc north of PR gets north of the MONA passage it will gain back the southerly inflow and start to pop.

When should recon get back into the storm?

[Jr0d]

To me, it appears to be heading directly for DR. I think it makes a direct landfall on DR tonight

I swear it looked more WNW 15 minutes ago... but there is a north component to the MLC we are tracking on radar. I think it will manage to skirt the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

I do expect another collapse of the thunderstorms today for the D-min, don't think it is strong enough to sustain convection throughout the day. Depending on where it ends up makes tomorrow morning is a world of difference for me in Key West.

[eastcoastFL]

Intensity guidance overall appears to be trending up. Explains why the nhc is forecasting a stronger storm.

[SFLcane]

so using the TDR radar on the north coast.. here is the llc at less than 500 feet.

https://i.ibb.co/yk18nnZ/Capture.png

Yeah wind direction indicates that LLC is weakening and southern one is becoming dominant. Basically the opposite of HWRF

[eastcoastFL]

To me, it appears to be heading directly for DR. I think it makes a direct landfall on DR tonight

I swear it looked more WNW 15 minutes ago... but there is a north component to the MLC we are tracking on radar. I think it will manage to skirt the north coast of the Dominican Republic.

I do expect another collapse of the thunderstorms today for the D-min, don't think it is strong enough to sustain convection throughout the day. Depending on where it ends up makes tomorrow morning is a world of difference for me in Key West.

Are you planning to stay regardless of what happens? It’s getting late for evacs. I’ve done the key west evacuation before and it’s no fun.

[eastcoastFL]

6z HWRF shows the center well south of the island and then jumps to the north

[alienstorm]

12z HWRF shows the center well south of the island and then jumps to the north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_2.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_4.png

I believe thats because it is tracking the MLC as the main center

[Cat5James]

12z HWRF shows the center well south of the island and then jumps to the north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_2.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_4.png

that is the 6Z... we will see if the 12Z adjusts.

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF shows the center well south of the island and then jumps to the north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_2.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_4.png

I believe thats because it is tracking the MLC as the main center

Makes sense. I couldn’t quite understand what the deal was

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF shows the center well south of the island and then jumps to the north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_2.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_4.png

that is the 6Z... we will see if the 12Z adjusts.

You’re correct thank you. I edited it

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF shows the center well south of the island and then jumps to the north

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_2.png


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082206/hwrf_ref_13L_4.png

I believe thats because it is tracking the MLC as the main center

Makes sense. I couldn’t quite understand what the deal was

NHC states LLC is uncertain, that’s likely b/c the LLC is reforming as we speak. The MLC is dominant feature on satellite, but NHC seems to be going with the middle between the MLC and maybe faint LLC forming N of PR. How can you really pinpoint an LLC when it’s not there. Unfortunately for Storm2k, this may be the issue across Hispaniola and Cuba, very unlikely to have a clear defined LLC. Once it pops into the GOM it will pull itself together. JMHO.

[eastcoastFL]

I believe thats because it is tracking the MLC as the main center

Makes sense. I couldn’t quite understand what the deal was

NHC states LLC is uncertain, that’s likely b/c the LLC is reforming as we speak. The MLC is dominant feature on satellite, but NHC seems to be going with the middle between the MLC and maybe faint LLC forming N of PR. How can you really pinpoint an LLC when it’s not there. Unfortunately for Storm2k, this may be the issue across Hispaniola and Cuba, very unlikely to have a clear defined LLC. Once it pops into the GOM it will pull itself together. JMHO.

Does this match the nhc position?

[Blown Away]

Makes sense. I couldn’t quite understand what the deal was

NHC states LLC is uncertain, that’s likely b/c the LLC is reforming as we speak. The MLC is dominant feature on satellite, but NHC seems to be going with the middle between the MLC and maybe faint LLC forming N of PR. How can you really pinpoint an LLC when it’s not there. Unfortunately for Storm2k, this may be the issue across Hispaniola and Cuba, very unlikely to have a clear defined LLC. Once it pops into the GOM it will pull itself together. JMHO.

Does this match the nhc position?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/sfcplots/sfcplot_13L_latest.png

I think so, the MLC is a little SW and possible LLC reform is N of that “L”.