ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

How come some are saying laura is n.e. of puerto rico. The lats have it at 17.7n 66w. That would be s.e. of puerto rico

Surface obs/satellite etc suggest center relocated/“bounced” to north side of island. Would expect 11 am NHC discussion to address this but we will see soon

What surface obs? Certainly not what radar suggesting this morning it could even be forming further south.

[supercane4867]

Land interaction with Hispaniola could help Laura to organize just like it did with Isaias. The southern vortex dies off once it hits rugged terrain thus allowing the system to focus on the LLC to the north. Looks like this is what HWRF trying to do as well.

[StAuggy]

Is it possible a stronger Marco influences Laura to move further East? Is it out of the question this could still come into south Florida?

I’d say there’s still a small threat to extreme south Florida like homestead south. We will know more in the next 12 hours

I don’t think Laura gets as far north as me (Palm Beach County) but I would keep a close eye on Marco here. Heading much more N than NW for several hours now and missing forecast points in a noteworthy fashion. If he doesn’t get shunted more west soon ... and Laura plays “catch up” from the East? Hard to see her making it as far west in the Gulf because ridge wouldn’t be able to build as far west in time. Interesting dynamic to watch for sure

If Marco bombs out today and makes a beeline to the central/NE gulf coast is there even a possibility that Laura could go west of its track? Wouldn’t it just follow the weakness in the ridge left from Marco?

[AnnularCane]

I've got a question... The 5 am discussion for Laura stated that she had weakened a bit since last night. However, it also said she had gotten better organized. Am I missing something? Or is this storm just being weird?

[Aric Dunn]

so using the TDR radar on the north coast.. here is the llc at less than 500 feet.

[HuracanMaster]

Starting to get some rain now.http://cloud.tapatalk.com/s/5f412cbd477c5/Screen_Recording_20200822-102648_RadarScope.mp4

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[aspen]

If convection can fire some more around the LLC, then the center of Laura will be dragged further north and the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola can kill the MLC and whatever LLC it’s trying to form, similar to Isaias. Although at this rate I’m not ruling out the MLC becoming dominant and Laura staying in the Caribbean.

[blp]

According to the radar it is almost certain that the new center of Laura is south of San Juan

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/6605/zgRwIb.gif

Agreed. Its vigorous and looks to be heading more WNW.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[robbielyn]

so using the TDR radar on the north coast.. here is the llc at less than 500 feet.

https://i.ibb.co/yk18nnZ/Capture.png

Aric, do u still think the llc to the north will take over? Levi said it looks like the mlc is trying to create its own llc because it is developing west winds. ur thoughts?

[robbielyn]

saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/zyKp9qI.gif

by looks of that radar looks like the mlc will be the dominant has it’s own llc south of PR.

[blp]

so using the TDR radar on the north coast.. here is the llc at less than 500 feet.

https://i.ibb.co/yk18nnZ/Capture.png

Aric, I see it here. Does look to be exiting the North coast. Do you think it will be able to drag the MLC far enough north to avoid significant land interaction. That MLC is looking real nice right now.

[Aric Dunn]

so using the TDR radar on the north coast.. here is the llc at less than 500 feet.

https://i.ibb.co/yk18nnZ/Capture.png

Aric, do u still think the llc to the north will take over? Levi said it looks like the mlc is trying to create its own llc because it is developing west winds. ur thoughts?

The LLC north of PR will have to develop some convection..

but the MLC will eventually die without the low level convergence from the LLC..

to further the demise of the MLC.. will be it going over PR and HIspaniola.. so the outlook for the MLC is not looking good.

but its a complex situation as you can imagine. So we wait..

12z models for Laura will be moot if they initialize the MLC.

[Hurricaneman]

So it’s possible we’ve been following an eddy being spit out and there may be a stronger LLC SSE of that under the MLC, this will track over the islands and weaken and make this maybe a weaker system in the GOM but also much larger and spread out but more like the NHC forecast instead of what the intensity models have

[cycloneye]

11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 17.8°N 66.8°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


There is nothing NE or north of PR.

[alienstorm]

11 AM Advisory puts it SW of Ponce PR - sorry but I dont see that.

[Aric Dunn]

11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 17.8°N 66.8°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph



There is nothing NE or north of PR.

that position is well ahead of the MLC is clear air.. maybe they just split the difference.

either that or the eddy that typically develops in the MONA passage is what they are thinking might happen.

[hipshot]

saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/zyKp9qI.gif

Unless what I'm seeing is the mid level circulation, the llc looks to be south of PR

[tolakram]

I think the LLC is forming or consolidating SW of PR.

Saved Loop

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the NHC, that LLC we were following seems to have been an eddy after all and seems to be slowly fading, looks like the three island track is coming up