ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/716215692617187328/746600927540019263/what.PNG?width=924&height=424

Well look what we got here

Looks like the beginning of core development, let’s hope this gets disrupted By Hispaniola and Cuba and can’t recover

[DestinHurricane]

18Z HWRF very close to right now IR presentation. Well done, HWRF.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like it found a sweet spot.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[Blinhart]

Isn't this about the time all the models said that she was going to start getting in better shape to start ramping up a little???

[IsabelaWeather]

Holy crap. This is looking so much better the last 2 hours. I even see banding, but the cold convection at the center is concerning. This could be much stronger in the morning

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/Mattlennial/status/1297045999144370176




Most likely Flight level but still..

[tiger_deF]

This has been such a bizzare season. Yeah conditions haven't been super ripe for a major yet but everything has wanted to spin up and these systems have had a scary persistence. Even after getting pummeled by mid level dry air and shear for 3 days Laura is still in the game

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Deshaunrob17]

the system is looking....less bad. let's see if this is the start of a trend or another fake out. At least it's coming into PR radar view..

I don't know if it's just me but it seems like when these messy systems approach Puerto Rico they blossom.. I noticed that too with Dorian and Isaias

[Hurricaneman]

Holy crap. This is looking so much better the last 2 hours. I even see banding, but the cold convection at the center is concerning. This could be much stronger in the morning

https://i.imgur.com/zqeKMkW.jpg

There is clear banding now, this if maintained could be intensifying quite a bit by morning

The opinion is not of a pro, for info please go to NHC, NOAA and the NWS

[galaxy401]

Yeah the near exact match between Laura and the HWRF is very eerie. Earlier today Laura looked similar to what the model had so maybe it's onto something.

[Hammy]

Looks like it found a sweet spot.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

That mid-level shear out of the south looks like it's pulling in a ton of moisture from the ITCZ over South America.

[Jr0d]

18Z HWRF very close to right now IR presentation. Well done, HWRF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082118/hwrf_satIR_13L_3.png

Tough to get against the HWRF right now...not look8ng good for me in Key West.

[crimi481]

Another degree north and may get scary

[Hammy]

Can't say for certain because of the elevation puts it in question at that distance, but watched a fast loop for awhile and this appears to be low level flow. Circled area shows little to no movement but will likely get sucked in if this is in fact organizing the way it appears. MLC and LLC are trying to meet up as the CMC has been showing for a few days.

[curtadams]

Keep in mind that picture posted above Isn't Laura, that's a simulation from a model of what model HWRF believes she would look like at this time.

Yes, but the real Laura does look pretty similar: Pretty impressive to successfully predict that it would be a mess, and then to improve in a particular area at a particular time.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/ox68b8s.mp4

Two spins southeast of St Croix, presumably the western one is the LLC and eastern one MLC--given the banding I don't see how those could both be at the mid levels.

[Steve]

Alarm is set for 6:15am so I can beat any store rush and buy stuff to stock up on. See y'all later on today.

[Blinhart]

So it looks like Laura will be going into the Caribbean (for at least a little bit), going to be interesting if she decides to stay south of the Islands and just keep the tight inner core until it gets into the GoM, or will try to get back into the Florida Straits and try not to hit to much land while doing that. I just know looking at this, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir that it looks like she is tightening up her inner core and might be strengthening quite a bit right now. Really wish recon was in there right now to see how strong her winds are. She surely has blown up quickly.

[Hammy]

As the center gets closer it's clear Laura is far less organized than it appeared earlier and that huge spin to the east was indeed the MLC--LLC is north of the convective mass at the moment and about to run across Puerto Rico.