ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rigbyrigz]

wow NHC has it going right over the islands, yet still getting to hurricane strength in the gulf...interesting

As long as there is somewhat of a core when it leaves Cuba, the environment favors significant, possibly rapid, intensification. If a solid core exists there, look out.

Hey CrazyC83, I have a question, why is it that I've others as well mention that this could strengthen quickly in the Gulf, yet T14 will be entering the gulf and the NHC doesn't have that one strengthen very fast at all, even has it weakening prior to landfall? Just curious what the difference between the two are?

Don't want to answer for C83, but you might be interested to know that NHC and others mentioned the Western Gulf will have high shear associated with a strong upper level trough, which won't be what Laura runs into. Both have plenty of warm water (high 80's off the BigBend today) but thats the apparent difference.

[FLpanhandle91]

00z HWRF seems to be biting on the LLC Aric is pointing out east of St. Croix.

[Keldeo1997]

[Cat5James]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746590516019331072/1598071417006-966853702.png

What is the implication here?

[Keldeo1997]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746590516019331072/1598071417006-966853702.png

What is the implication here?

The LLC may have just reformed NNE of where it was before

[Cat5James]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746590516019331072/1598071417006-966853702.png

What is the implication here?

The LLC may have just reformed N of where it was before

and I was just about to call it a night...

[Hammy]

Laura's starting to look like a somewhat sheared tropical cyclone rather than a disjointed mess.

[Cat5James]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/745830682177306664/746590516019331072/1598071417006-966853702.png

What is the implication here?

The LLC may have just reformed NNE of where it was before

Theres a large burst of convection and very cold cloud tops in that area... interesting

[captainbarbossa19]

What is the implication here?

The LLC may have just reformed N of where it was before

and I was just about to call it a night...

Based on the surface winds of this map, the center appears to be more towards the WNW of where it was at 0z.

[Aric Dunn]

Alrighty here we go..

St Croix has switched to NW/NNW .. we have a closed circ with deep convection building. heading just north of due west. probably will pop north of PR overnight from land interaction..

looks like finally models will have a good center to start with for 6 and 12z tomororw.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like we've got another COC relocation on our hands.

[Cat5James]

Alrighty here we go..

St Croix has switched to NW/NNW .. we have a closed circ with deep convection building. heading just north of due west. probably will pop north of PR overnight from land interaction..

looks like finally models will have a good center to start with for 6 and 12z tomororw.

https://i.ibb.co/CBZSgjz/Capture.png

The LLC could be starting to align with the mid level circulation

[rigbyrigz]

Even to the non-expert eye (here) the current San Juan radar sure looks like a huge and encircling blow-up underway right now... https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?pro ... A&loop=yes

[CrazyC83]

wow NHC has it going right over the islands, yet still getting to hurricane strength in the gulf...interesting

As long as there is somewhat of a core when it leaves Cuba, the environment favors significant, possibly rapid, intensification. If a solid core exists there, look out.

Hey CrazyC83, I have a question, why is it that I've others as well mention that this could strengthen quickly in the Gulf, yet T14 will be entering the gulf and the NHC doesn't have that one strengthen very fast at all, even has it weakening prior to landfall? Just curious what the difference between the two are?

When Marco gets there, it is likely that the trough will be in the process of retreating. The trough adds shear. But by midweek, all indications are that the trough will be gone.

[Hurricane Mike]

Laura looks a tiny bit better.

[Hurricaneman]

Laura's starting to look like a somewhat sheared tropical cyclone rather than a disjointed mess.

https://i.imgur.com/chaIYia.png

Also looking at animated satellite maps, it’s on the SW edge of the convection and there seems to be convection growing on the SW side of the circulation based on cloud movement, starting to stack, could look quite different in the morning

[Keldeo1997]

Well look what we got here

[Hammy]

Laura's starting to look like a somewhat sheared tropical cyclone rather than a disjointed mess.

https://i.imgur.com/chaIYia.png

Also looking at animated satellite maps, it’s on the SW edge of the convection and there seems to be convection growing on the SW side of the circulation based on cloud movement, starting to stack, could look quite different in the morning

Last few frames show some degree of outflow building as well--relative to the center, the high clouds are now starting to blow out of the southeast rather than the south.

[FLpanhandle91]

To my untrained eye I'd say center is around 17.5N 64.1W

[psyclone]

the system is looking....less bad. let's see if this is the start of a trend or another fake out. At least it's coming into PR radar view..