ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Another south shift.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/025918-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

Other countries need to adjust the warnings too. As far as shifts, I don't think it's the last one either.

[CrazyC83]

Another south shift.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/025918-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

wow NHC has it going right over the islands, yet still getting to hurricane strength in the gulf...interesting

As long as there is somewhat of a core when it leaves Cuba, the environment favors significant, possibly rapid, intensification. If a solid core exists there, look out.

[toad strangler]

Another south shift.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/025918-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

wow NHC has it going right over the islands, yet still getting to hurricane strength in the gulf...interesting

Laura is a weak mess. A perfect candidate to just float on through the entire GA chain.

[cjrciadt]

Laura taking the island criuse route since us humans cannot enjoy criuses this season.

[ElectricStorm]

Another south shift.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/025918-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

wow NHC has it going right over the islands, yet still getting to hurricane strength in the gulf...interesting

As long as there is somewhat of a core when it leaves Cuba, the environment favors significant, possibly rapid, intensification. If a solid core exists there, look out.

Yeah a storm with a decent core entering the gulf in August has bad news written all over it.

[captainbarbossa19]

Another south shift.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/025918-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

This is a nightmare. This track is almost identical now to the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. I hope Laura dies.

[eastcoastFL]

Is it the forward speed that makes it look like the longest 5 day cone ever?

[AJC3]

Is it the forward speed that makes it look like the longest 5 day cone ever?

Yes. It's one of the longer ones you'll see for a TC moving W-NW at those latitudes. However, the largest cones I've ever seen for TCs were those for recurving/accelerating into the westerlies and across the north Atlantic.

You'll find several examples of those in the NHC storm graphic archives. Here's one of the final ones for Dorian last year.

[eastcoastFL]

Is it the forward speed that makes it look like the longest 5 day cone ever?

Yes. It's one of the longer ones you'll see for a TC moving W-NW at those latitudes. However, the largest cones I've ever seen for TCs were those for recurving/accelerating into the westerlies and across the north Atlantic.

You'll find several examples of those in the NHC storm graphic archives. Here's one of the final ones for Dorian last year.

https://i.imgur.com/RDfXLpH.jpg

Ya that’s massive. I think this is the longest one I’ve seen coming from the Atlantic through the Caribbean and gulf

Wilma was moving lightning fast when she came through here and just kept trucking. That cone was pretty long too. It was one of the weirder storms because it left a cold front behind it was in the 50s the next day.

[Aric Dunn]

that convection east of PR is quickly showing signs of an llc.. couple that with the surface obs.. looking good.

[Hurricane Mike]

Late night video update on Laura and Marco:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkotJPZOPiE

[Kazmit]

that convection east of PR is quickly showing signs of an llc.. couple that with the surface obs.. looking good.

https://i.ibb.co/L6QF4P7/7.gif

I thought it was reforming near Guadeloupe?

[Aric Dunn]

that convection east of PR is quickly showing signs of an llc.. couple that with the surface obs.. looking good.

https://i.ibb.co/L6QF4P7/7.gif

I thought it was reforming near Guadeloupe?

There was/is a vort down there too. but convection collapsed.

I mentioned there were multiple eddys and all any of them need was some sustained convection.

unlike the others.. we have some surface obs with this one.

It is a tricky situation for sure..

[KC7NEC]

Any thoughts or ideas how having storms on both sides of the gulf could impact Recon? Seems its going to be a resource challenge?

[Steve]

Any thoughts or ideas how having storms on both sides of the gulf could impact Recon? Seems its going to be a resource challenge?

That's Aric/GCANE. NHC mostly said wait and see. "Uncertain" was used in both discussions about the possibility.

[Blown Away]

that convection east of PR is quickly showing signs of an llc.. couple that with the surface obs.. looking good.

https://i.ibb.co/L6QF4P7/7.gif

The 18z HWRF shows the low with a blob of deep convection very similar to what is happening now. If the center reforms the HWRF nailed it.

[Hurricaneman]

I may be getting tired, and it looks like a convective burst happens over the LLC for once but looking at long range Puerto Rican radar is showing a due west motion instead of a WNW motion and if current motion continues it would scrape the south coast of Puerto Rico

[ConvergenceZone]

A couple of Mets mentioned that they don't think this is the last south shift, meaning that there's a good chance that this may end up in the Carib. Question is, if so, how will it be influenced by TD 14?
Also, if it ends up in the Carib, I think at the very least it will hold its strength meaning much more of a chance of stronger intensification once it enters the gulf.

[ConvergenceZone]

Another south shift.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200822/025918-5day-cone-no-line-and-wind.png

wow NHC has it going right over the islands, yet still getting to hurricane strength in the gulf...interesting

As long as there is somewhat of a core when it leaves Cuba, the environment favors significant, possibly rapid, intensification. If a solid core exists there, look out.

Hey CrazyC83, I have a question, why is it that I've others as well mention that this could strengthen quickly in the Gulf, yet T14 will be entering the gulf and the NHC doesn't have that one strengthen very fast at all, even has it weakening prior to landfall? Just curious what the difference between the two are?

[SoupBone]

A couple of Mets mentioned that they don't think this is the last south shift, meaning that there's a good chance that this may end up in the Carib. Question is, if so, how will it be influenced by TD 14?
Also, if it ends up in the Carib, I think at the very least it will hold its strength meaning much more of a chance of stronger intensification once it enters the gulf.

I think some of the Euro ensembles showed something crossing th GoM heading west and into Tex/Mex. It just seems like a crazy possibility.