ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Look at that brand new welldefiend LLC wraping up .... here we go.. should still rotate to the NE as it starts deepening.

Very clear on radar now.

https://i.ibb.co/Fhp8x2q/ezgif-com-gif-maker-9.gif

That’s pretty neat how it just flipped around like that

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone know what time king HWRF runs?

[wxman57]

Obs at St. John's indicate a weak center may have moved to the west. Red crosshairs mark NHC's position at the time of the satellite, though the obs are 22Z obs. Not much wind.

[eastcoastFL]

Pressure seems lower than last flight

[eastcoastFL]

Currently HWRF has Laura putting key west in the eye as a 943mb storm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082112/hwrf_ref_13L_28.png


I can’t imagine this playing out currently but who knows at this point

IR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2020082112/hwrf_satIR_13L_15.png

Woof. That is a re-run of 1919. 101 years after the fact.

That's the Dry Tortugas--75 miles west of Key West--in the eye there. Not that it's a day at the beach in Key West, but it's also prob not devastation. Fort Jefferson, though...

You’re right. I couldn’t tell through the blob. I just saw 1 lonely island in the eye. Good catch

[CrazyC83]

Recon seems to be having transmission issues. Could be because there are 3 NOAA flights going on at once (a training flight and the G-IV as well).

[Blown Away]

Obs at St. John's indicate a weak center may have moved to the west. Red crosshairs mark NHC's position at the time of the satellite, though the obs are 22Z obs. Not much wind.

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura5.JPG

St John’s in the eye?

Basically your saying the NHC COC is or has fizzled out and either Laura is dissipated or likely a COC reform back E under the deep convection blob?

[SohCahToa]

I'm dead center in the landfall cone now....but the is the westward trend finished or is Texas on the table next?.....MGC

Yeah I’m In Mandeville, La. leaving for a work trip to Dallas on Monday morning. Starting to get a little concerned about leaving my girl and animals home for 2 weeks during all this.

Hopefully it will hit east or west of here and not be that big of a deal for us in SELA. Make sure one of the cars has a full tank of gas so that if she needs to get out after the fact (should Laura pass nearby), she'll be able to do it. Y'all usually fare pretty well except near the lake front and near some of the creeks and streams as you well know. The Northshore has a ton of trees though. Everywhere. It could be hard to get gas for a few days if there is widespread poweroutage (e.g. driving from Alexandria to Slidell, no lights were on the roads and nothing was open from like just east of Hammond until pretty far east.

We just moved over there in May. We are about 3/4 of a mile north of Florida so we should be good water wise. We own a corner lot with hardly any pines around us so honestly we should do well. My girl is an absolute lunatic so she keeps cases of water, canned goods, batteries, and other supplies regardless of the threats. More or less just don’t like the idea of leaving her and the animals to fend for themselves.

[wxman57]

NHC expected a Category 1 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in the first advisory, which at the time I was very skeptical of since only the statistical guidance and HWRF showed that happening.

That's not verifying well. It would be a challenge to find any sustained wind of tropical storm strength in Laura. HWRF predicts everything to be a Cat 3+ hurricane.

Question one: in your view how many marginal tropical storms have been overestimated or wrongly classified since the early 2000s?

Question two: why did the ECMWF bust so dramatically in regard to Hanna? I still haven’t found a good meteorological explanation.

As for question #1, that's a hard one to answer. The NHC's job is to protect the general public, keep them safe. They tend to be overly-cautious with intensity (my opinion) with any system near land. They're quick to increase wind and very slow to indicate weakening. They do this to keep the public paying attention. That's their job. They're all excellent forecasters. I know most of them. The current NHC is much more liberal with naming than, say, the Neil Frank or Max Mayfield era. It's frustrating for me, as a private consulting meteorologist, because I want to give our clients the best information about what to expect when a storm passes. With Laura, for example, we have a client in St. John's. They have a 45 mph (NHC's intensity) tropical storm going right over them now and winds have not topped 10 mph. If it was me, I'd declare it a tropical wave and mention possible wind gusts 50-60 mph in squalls after it passes.

As for #2, I can't even remember Hanna. I'd have to go look at the reports...

[NC George]

I wish they would give us a consolidated GOM map with both storms predicted tracks and all watches and warnings shown so you can get the big picture.

[Kazmit]

What’s with the little jagged cut out around Lake O?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34+png/205404_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png

Something to do with how NHC counts Lake O as coastline (Watches and warnings are issued for the lake).

[Aric Dunn]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

[Nuno]

That's not verifying well. It would be a challenge to find any sustained wind of tropical storm strength in Laura. HWRF predicts everything to be a Cat 3+ hurricane.

Question one: in your view how many marginal tropical storms have been overestimated or wrongly classified since the early 2000s?

Question two: why did the ECMWF bust so dramatically in regard to Hanna? I still haven’t found a good meteorological explanation.

As for question #1, that's a hard one to answer. The NHC's job is to protect the general public, keep them safe. They tend to be overly-cautious with intensity (my opinion) with any system near land. They're quick to increase wind and very slow to indicate weakening. They do this to keep the public paying attention. That's their job. They're all excellent forecasters. I know most of them. The current NHC is much more liberal with naming than, say, the Neil Frank or Max Mayfield era. It's frustrating for me, as a private consulting meteorologist, because I want to give our clients the best information about what to expect when a storm passes. With Laura, for example, we have a client in St. John's. They have a 45 mph (NHC's intensity) tropical storm going right over them now and winds have not topped 10 mph. If it was me, I'd declare it a tropical wave and mention possible wind gusts 50-60 mph in squalls after it passes.

As for #2, I can't even remember Hanna. I'd have to go look at the reports...

What past examples stand out to you post-Max Mayfield that the NHC named that you don't think would've been named fifteen years ago?

[Frank P]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/JB4fRZT/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

Yeah that looks decent, not just your little eddy drifting around either... has some meat to it... nice convection banding building on the eastern quad...good catch..

[AutoPenalti]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/JB4fRZT/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

I stand corrected, that looks like a developing center.

[psyclone]

What’s with the little jagged cut out around Lake O?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34+png/205404_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png

Something to do with how NHC counts Lake O as coastline (Watches and warnings are issued for the lake).

It's a graphical acknowledgement that land based winds are significantly less than marine winds. The other wind prob graphics are now reflecting this as well. This is yet another needed improvement on our official products that was overdue.

[eastcoastFL]

That's not verifying well. It would be a challenge to find any sustained wind of tropical storm strength in Laura. HWRF predicts everything to be a Cat 3+ hurricane.

Question one: in your view how many marginal tropical storms have been overestimated or wrongly classified since the early 2000s?

Question two: why did the ECMWF bust so dramatically in regard to Hanna? I still haven’t found a good meteorological explanation.

As for question #1, that's a hard one to answer. The NHC's job is to protect the general public, keep them safe. They tend to be overly-cautious with intensity (my opinion) with any system near land. They're quick to increase wind and very slow to indicate weakening. They do this to keep the public paying attention. That's their job. They're all excellent forecasters. I know most of them. The current NHC is much more liberal with naming than, say, the Neil Frank or Max Mayfield era. It's frustrating for me, as a private consulting meteorologist, because I want to give our clients the best information about what to expect when a storm passes. With Laura, for example, we have a client in St. John's. They have a 45 mph (NHC's intensity) tropical storm going right over them now and winds have not topped 10 mph. If it was me, I'd declare it a tropical wave and mention possible wind gusts 50-60 mph in squalls after it passes.

As for #2, I can't even remember Hanna. I'd have to go look at the reports...

The NHC seems to overdue intensity in my mind. I always figured it was because they only have to find one spot with a 10 sec sustained wind for the max wind that they forecast. Is that the case?

Every hurricane ive been in except for 1 was weaker than i expected. The 1 outlier was Wilma. But i think it was my local met that messed that up. Not the nhc. They told us she would be a TS when it reached palm beach and it was worse than Jeanne or Frances just a lot faster.

[SFLcane]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/JB4fRZT/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

Can you pinpoint exact location?

[CrazyC83]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/JB4fRZT/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

The center is so far south of forecast that it could change everything down the line.

[Aric Dunn]

another 45 min added on..

Circ becoming more defined.. im sure there are some eddys to the north. but they have no convection..

this area is coming together.

https://i.ibb.co/JB4fRZT/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

The center is so far south of forecast that it could change everything down the line.

It should still rotate around to the NE then North as it deepens. so it shold end up in the same general area.. but may end up making it slower..