ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

To quote from the 5PM discussion, "... the current intensity is held at 45 knots based on continuity from hurricane hunter observations from earlier today." but the advisory has 45 mph. Which is correct?

45 mph (40 knots).

[Hurricaneman]

I'm dead center in the landfall cone now....but the is the westward trend finished or is Texas on the table next?.....MGC

That’s an unknown right now as it seems this wants to relocate farther east

[abajan]

To quote from the 5PM discussion, "... the current intensity is held at 45 knots based on continuity from hurricane hunter observations from earlier today." but the advisory has 45 mph. Which is correct?

45 mph (40 knots).

That's right, and moments after posting I discovered they changed the one in the discussion to 40 knots.

[DestinHurricane]

I'm dead center in the landfall cone now....but the is the westward trend finished or is Texas on the table next?.....MGC

That’s an unknown right now as it seems this wants to relocate farther east

If it relocates farther east will models shift east despite the ridge?

[abajan]

Looks like we're back to the ALL CAPS days in the latest NHC discussion.

I was just thinking that...definitely a throwback. The discussion for 14 is the new standard way.

Nope. They later changed the formatting back to non-all caps.

[Blown Away]

Deep convection fizzling over the 5pm 17.1N/61.2W position while still being maintained @17N/59.8W. I’ll be shocked if the COC at the 5pm position survives, something will reform back E where the MLC likely is. This is JMHO!

[SohCahToa]

I'm dead center in the landfall cone now....but the is the westward trend finished or is Texas on the table next?.....MGC

Yeah I’m In Mandeville, La. leaving for a work trip to Dallas on Monday morning. Starting to get a little concerned about leaving my girl and animals home for 2 weeks during all this.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that brand new welldefiend LLC wraping up .... here we go.. should still rotate to the NE as it starts deepening.

Very clear on radar now.

[DestinHurricane]

Look at that brand new welldefiend LLC wraping up .... here we go.. should still rotate to the NE as it starts deepening.

Very clear on radar now.

https://i.ibb.co/Fhp8x2q/ezgif-com-gif-maker-9.gif

What does this mean for future track implications?

[SFLcane]

Look at that brand new welldefiend LLC wraping up .... here we go.. should still rotate to the NE as it starts deepening.

Very clear on radar now.

https://i.ibb.co/Fhp8x2q/ezgif-com-gif-maker-9.gif

You can clearly see there no doubt

[Blown Away]

To quote from the 5PM discussion, "... the current intensity is held at 45 knots based on continuity from hurricane hunter observations from earlier today." but the advisory has 45 mph. Which is correct?

Never mind. I see they corrected it.

Knots * 1.151 = mph

[Aric Dunn]

Look at that brand new welldefiend LLC wraping up .... here we go.. should still rotate to the NE as it starts deepening.

Very clear on radar now.

https://i.ibb.co/Fhp8x2q/ezgif-com-gif-maker-9.gif

What does this mean for future track implications?

nothing definitive. we have to so if it ends up north of PR or not.

[AutoPenalti]

Look at that brand new welldefiend LLC wraping up .... here we go.. should still rotate to the NE as it starts deepening.

Very clear on radar now.

https://i.ibb.co/Fhp8x2q/ezgif-com-gif-maker-9.gif

That has to be an eddy. No way LLC is establishing itself that quickly.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, good call! That obvious reformation is as clear as it gets!

[TallahasseeMan]

Anyone know what time recon is supposed to arrive?

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening video update on Laura and TD-14
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSGAqWxgCWo

[Hurricaneman]

Anyone know what time recon is supposed to arrive?

They’re there right now

[abajan]

To quote from the 5PM discussion, "... the current intensity is held at 45 knots based on continuity from hurricane hunter observations from earlier today." but the advisory has 45 mph. Which is correct?

Never mind. I see they corrected it.

Knots * 1.151 = mph

Yes, I knew that. I was just wondering if the 45 knots stated in the discussion was correct because the advisory stated 45 mph. But they later lowered the one in the discussion to 40 knots. There's a line near the top of the corrected discussion stating Corrected formatting and initial intensity.

[Steve]

I'm dead center in the landfall cone now....but the is the westward trend finished or is Texas on the table next?.....MGC

Yeah I’m In Mandeville, La. leaving for a work trip to Dallas on Monday morning. Starting to get a little concerned about leaving my girl and animals home for 2 weeks during all this.

Hopefully it will hit east or west of here and not be that big of a deal for us in SELA. Make sure one of the cars has a full tank of gas so that if she needs to get out after the fact (should Laura pass nearby), she'll be able to do it. Y'all usually fare pretty well except near the lake front and near some of the creeks and streams as you well know. The Northshore has a ton of trees though. Everywhere. It could be hard to get gas for a few days if there is widespread poweroutage (e.g. driving from Alexandria to Slidell, no lights were on the roads and nothing was open from like just east of Hammond until pretty far east.

[eastcoastFL]

What’s with the little jagged cut out around Lake O?