ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF does pretty darn well with simulating storm structure. Here's what it had for Dorian last year:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDQxJoJWsAAAelH?format=png&name=small

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

If my memory serves me well I believe it smelled out Michael's RI well before the NHC projected it.

Looks like your memory is pretty good

[eastcoastFL]

Currently HWRF has Laura putting key west in the eye as a 943mb storm




I can’t imagine this playing out currently but who knows at this point

IR

[TallahasseeMan]

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

If my memory serves me well I believe it smelled out Michael's RI well before the NHC projected it.

Looks like your memory is pretty good

https://preview.redd.it/rit16t6cbyq11.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ce2b440015890d0535f96837334b0405e5fee07d

Hard to forget Michael's approach, I stuck around in Tallahassee as it came in and it gave me quite the scare.

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[Hammy]

HWRF does pretty darn well with simulating storm structure. Here's what it had for Dorian last year:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDQxJoJWsAAAelH?format=png&name=small

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

If my memory serves me well I believe it smelled out Michael's RI well before the NHC projected it.

NAM as well, as much as people joke about it here--it was the first one to show rapid intensification with Harvey, Michael, and Hanna (can't say for Dorian/Irma as they were outside of the model's range) as well as picking up several smaller tropical storms that no other model figured out. Wind profile/satellite are best to pay attention to as it does tend to overplay the pressure drop.

[wxman57]

I think that the HWRF has as much chance of verifying as I do in having this weekend off. Meanwhile, Laura is roaring into the islands of the northeast Caribbean, producing northerly winds of 50 kts! Oh, I mean 5 kts. Decimal in the wrong place.

[SFLcane]

This reformation process has been ongoing for the last 6 hours... So why is everyone all freaking out all of a sudden lol.

We still have a couple eddys out there too. just going cause more rotational wobbles. Still expecting to get north of PR because of these structural changes.

Been saving radar images and watching this process all day.

https://i.ibb.co/v1tQBDW/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif

Question: If it relocates you the NE is that the original location it was at previously when the advisory track was going near the upper keys or extreme SFL?

Reason I am asking is due to this southern relocation of the llc was the reason the guidance shifted south.

?

[DestinHurricane]

This reformation process has been ongoing for the last 6 hours... So why is everyone all freaking out all of a sudden lol.

We still have a couple eddys out there too. just going cause more rotational wobbles. Still expecting to get north of PR because of these structural changes.

Been saving radar images and watching this process all day.

https://i.ibb.co/v1tQBDW/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif

Question: If it relocates you the NE is that the original location it was at previously when the advisory track was going near the upper keys or extreme SFL?

Reason I am asking is due to this southern relocation of the llc was the reason the guidance shifted south.

?

Probably not considering the strength of the ridge.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the COC over or just past St. John’s? Or like yesterday the COC raced away from the convection and reformed?

[SFLcane]

I think that the HWRF has as much chance of verifying as I do in having this weekend off. Meanwhile, Laura is roaring into the islands of the northeast Caribbean, producing northerly winds of 50 kts! Oh, I mean 5 kts. Decimal in the wrong place.

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura3.JPG

.. a center relocation could put SFL back in the cone. A track middle/upper keys is possible

[eastcoastFL]

I think that the HWRF has as much chance of verifying as I do in having this weekend off. Meanwhile, Laura is roaring into the islands of the northeast Caribbean, producing northerly winds of 50 kts! Oh, I mean 5 kts. Decimal in the wrong place.

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura3.JPG

I agree and hope you’re right. What did you think of Dorian when it first formed? Did you expect it to ramp up or fizzle out?

[Kingarabian]

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

If my memory serves me well I believe it smelled out Michael's RI well before the NHC projected it.

NAM as well, as much as people joke about it here--it was the first one to show rapid intensification with Harvey, Michael, and Hanna (can't say for Dorian/Irma as they were outside of the model's range) as well as picking up several smaller tropical storms that no other model figured out. Wind profile/satellite are best to pay attention to as it does tend to overplay the pressure drop.

Because the NAM over intensifies every system lol.

[Evil Jeremy]

Mildly-annoyed-about-having-to-work-this-weekend Wxman57 is my favorite form of Wxman57.

[CyclonicFury]

I think that the HWRF has as much chance of verifying as I do in having this weekend off. Meanwhile, Laura is roaring into the islands of the northeast Caribbean, producing northerly winds of 50 kts! Oh, I mean 5 kts. Decimal in the wrong place.

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura3.JPG

I agree and hope you’re right. What did you think of Dorian when it first formed? Did you expect it to ramp up or fizzle out?

I think he predicted it would dissipate over the eastern Caribbean when it first formed, which at the time was what the global models were in great agreement would happen.

[FLpanhandle91]

Wonder if the NHC will shift west with their track to fall in line with the test of the 18z members or if they are potentially seeing a center relocation to the NE.

[eastcoastFL]

I think that the HWRF has as much chance of verifying as I do in having this weekend off. Meanwhile, Laura is roaring into the islands of the northeast Caribbean, producing northerly winds of 50 kts! Oh, I mean 5 kts. Decimal in the wrong place.

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura3.JPG

I agree and hope you’re right. What did you think of Dorian when it first formed? Did you expect it to ramp up or fizzle out?

I think he predicted it would dissipate over the eastern Caribbean when it first formed, which at the time was what the global models were in great agreement would happen.

I think most everyone expected something like that and nobody expected what happened.

[DestinHurricane]

The center relocation was only part of why they shifted west. Also the very strong ridge.

[Blown Away]

Wonder if the NHC will shift west with their track to fall in line with the test of the 18z members or if they are potentially seeing a center relocation to the NE.

I doubt much change to 5pm track or intensity. Especially when they are estimating a position and hint COC reformation, they usually leave as is unless some imminent landfall.

[CyclonicFury]

I agree and hope you’re right. What did you think of Dorian when it first formed? Did you expect it to ramp up or fizzle out?

I think he predicted it would dissipate over the eastern Caribbean when it first formed, which at the time was what the global models were in great agreement would happen.

I think most everyone expected something like that and nobody expected what happened.

NHC expected a Category 1 hurricane in the eastern Caribbean in the first advisory, which at the time I was very skeptical of since only the statistical guidance and HWRF showed that happening.

[Blow_Hard]

Wonder if the NHC will shift west with their track to fall in line with the test of the 18z members or if they are potentially seeing a center relocation to the NE.

Go west, go west young lady...