ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

The convection firing on the far eastern side of the system is related to the mid-level vorticity that thus far has been displaced southeastward of the main low-level spin due to the mid-level shear in place.

Any kind of low level center reformation eastward gets the system better vertically aligned, as well as more room for it to cross the islands just to the north. Recon in these situations is invaluable to have.

What would that do to the track (potentially of course)? Also, are we sure that HP to the East of FL is that strong? (newbie questions I know)

Would mean a more north and east track. Likely missing GAs.

[stormlover2013]

So 14 goes to corpus ridges doesn’t break because it doesn’t feel trough and Lauren is more south and rides ridge? Is that what it’s thinking

[SFLcane]

Center reformation coming?

https://twitter.com/mikefischerwx/statu ... 64320?s=21

Something to keep an eye on with Tropical Storm #Laura: the possibility of a center reformation. Right now, the vortex is quite weak, elongated, and tilted. It's possible the low-level center reforms closer to the mid-level vortex, on the east side where convection is active.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 67360?s=21

Can't wait until the center tries to jump back east into the new convection and screw the models up again.

[northjaxpro]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 67360?s=21

Can't wait until the center tries to jump back east into the new convection and screw the models up again.

Plus, it would get this forum back in a tizzy again...

[eastcoastFL]

It is absolutely amazing how identical the current IR presentation is to the HWRF IR forecast for this time. Really impressive forecasting

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It is absolutely amazing how identical the current IR presentation is to the HWRF IR forecast for this time. Really impressive forecasting

HWRF does pretty darn well with simulating storm structure. Here's what it had for Dorian last year:

[Aric Dunn]

This reformation process has been ongoing for the last 6 hours... So why is everyone all freaking out all of a sudden lol.

We still have a couple eddys out there too. just going cause more rotational wobbles. Still expecting to get north of PR because of these structural changes.

Been saving radar images and watching this process all day.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The HWRF definitely has more skill when it comes to showing CoC relocations. We need to closely watch for a new LLC to develop to the SE over the next 12 hours.

[eastcoastFL]

It is absolutely amazing how identical the current IR presentation is to the HWRF IR forecast for this time. Really impressive forecasting

HWRF does pretty darn well with simulating storm structure. Here's what it had for Dorian last year:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDQxJoJWsAAAelH?format=png&name=small

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

[Weatherboy1]

The convection firing on the far eastern side of the system is related to the mid-level vorticity that thus far has been displaced southeastward of the main low-level spin due to the mid-level shear in place.

Any kind of low level center reformation eastward gets the system better vertically aligned, as well as more room for it to cross the islands just to the north. Recon in these situations is invaluable to have.

As others have noted, this APPEARS like it might be occurring … though hard to tell given how sloppy the overall appearance is. As others have also noted, the further east and/or north any center reorganizes, the greater the chance of missing the worst of the GA islands to the north. We'll see.

[Blown Away]

This reformation process has been ongoing for the last 6 hours... So why is everyone all freaking out all of a sudden lol.

We still have a couple eddys out there too. just going cause more rotational wobbles. Still expecting to get north of PR because of these structural changes.

Been saving radar images and watching this process all day.

https://i.ibb.co/v1tQBDW/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif

Ok, so give approximate Lat/Long for the reformation?

[DestinHurricane]

It is absolutely amazing how identical the current IR presentation is to the HWRF IR forecast for this time. Really impressive forecasting

I agree. The HWRF has done phenomenal. It really seems to have improved the last couple years.

[Aric Dunn]

This reformation process has been ongoing for the last 6 hours... So why is everyone all freaking out all of a sudden lol.

We still have a couple eddys out there too. just going cause more rotational wobbles. Still expecting to get north of PR because of these structural changes.

Been saving radar images and watching this process all day.

https://i.ibb.co/v1tQBDW/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif

Ok, so give approximate Lat/Long for the reformation?

scroll back like 5 pages.. I already did. lol

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 67360?s=21

Can't wait until the center tries to jump back east into the new convection and screw the models up again.

Plus, it would get this forum back in a tizzy again...

One model run into florida regardless of reliability will get the post count exploding

[SFLcane]

This reformation process has been ongoing for the last 6 hours... So why is everyone all freaking out all of a sudden lol.

We still have a couple eddys out there too. just going cause more rotational wobbles. Still expecting to get north of PR because of these structural changes.

Been saving radar images and watching this process all day.

https://i.ibb.co/v1tQBDW/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif

Question: If it relocates you the NE is that the original location it was at previously when the advisory track was going near the upper keys or extreme SFL?

Reason I am asking is due to this southern relocation of the llc was the reason the guidance shifted south.

[DestinHurricane]

One model run into florida regardless of reliability will get the post count exploding

Correction: One model run into south florida regardless of reliability will get the post count exploding.

It's easy to forget about all of us panhandle rednecks

[Kingarabian]

It is absolutely amazing how identical the current IR presentation is to the HWRF IR forecast for this time. Really impressive forecasting

HWRF does pretty darn well with simulating storm structure. Here's what it had for Dorian last year:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDQxJoJWsAAAelH?format=png&name=small

To be honest it shows this type of IR simulation for almost every hurricane that becomes a major hurricane.

[TallahasseeMan]

It is absolutely amazing how identical the current IR presentation is to the HWRF IR forecast for this time. Really impressive forecasting

HWRF does pretty darn well with simulating storm structure. Here's what it had for Dorian last year:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDQxJoJWsAAAelH?format=png&name=small

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

If my memory serves me well I believe it smelled out Michael's RI well before the NHC projected it.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF does pretty darn well with simulating storm structure. Here's what it had for Dorian last year:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDQxJoJWsAAAelH?format=png&name=small

Wow. That’s amazing. I knew it nailed Dorian but I didn’t know it had the structure down like that. Science still amazes me. This model may be under appreciated

If my memory serves me well I believe it smelled out Michael's RI well before the NHC projected it.

That One I wasn’t aware of but I know it did really well with Irma also.