ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Works for me...I thought we were going to be clobbered by an over-water route Donna and forced in to the Corona...

(Insert wipe the sweat icon here)...

Saved by a NNW shear that may have forced a rare southward center re-location...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the current LLC remaining the dominant one, especially as it nears the islands. Entirely possibly this ends up going north or even just south of the islands.

[eastcoastFL]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

To answer your question, Yes.

Way too early! North of Palm Beach is likely in the clear.

The center will likely reform again...the South 'adjustment' that was made was a result of a center reforming further south.

After it clears Hispaniola then I would feel more confident about the track and intensity. This can be shredded into an open wave and South Florida won't see much or it could end up just north of the mountains and be in an environment favorable for rapid intensification as an intact cyclone.

This makes a particularly difficult decision for Monroe County/the Florida Keys. If Laura misses the mountains we will likely experience a strengthening hurricane that warrants evacuations by tomorrow morning, however if it gets shredded by the mountains this will bring some heavy squalls and not much more.

So far I have not heard any official statement or plan of action from Monroe county or the City of Key West.

I’m definitely feeling more at ease here just north of PBC.

[ObsessedMiami]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

Really? This storm is just reaching the Antilles.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is it too early to signal the "all clear" for Miami-Dade and Broward counties? It certainly appears that our luck will continue!

Really? This storm is just reaching the Antilles.

The odds are much much lower, but still not impossible for it to effect Miami

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/PlinianWinds/status/1296830846524108801

[Hurricaneman]

Frederic,Elena,Fay and Isaias are good examples of the Greater Antilles not killing a system and in the first 2 cases thriving in the GOM

I feel like maybe something like Frederic is possible

[ConvergenceZone]

Frederic,Elena,Fay and Isaias are good examples of the Greater Antilles not killing a system and in the first 2 cases thriving in the GOM

It depends on how well established the other storms you mentioned were. This has been struggling and is a minimal tropical storm

[SFLcane]

Like you see on the GFS, even if one LLC forms on NE side it rotates around the wave axis right along the islands.

[CourierPR]

https://twitter.com/PlinianWinds/status/1296830846524108801?

So these trained meteorologists are uncertain but amateurs on here are making pronouncements with finite certitude.

[EquusStorm]

Fay was a minimal tropical storm as it crossed the entire length of Hispaniola and much of Cuba with virtually no effect, in fact first being classified as a TC as it came into the Dominican Republic; that's definitely extremely unusual and I don't expect this one to but there is certainly a precedent

[Do_For_Love]

It depends on how well established the other storms you mentioned were. This has been struggling and is a minimal tropical storm

Well, at least in terms of Isaias, it kinda "matrixed" it's way around DR lol. Being less established actually worked to its advantage in a way. 1979 Fredrick was brought up by others as a potential analog, and it took a path similar to the 11am NHC forecast for Laura before becoming a Cat 4. It's at least possible for it to survive into the gulf, but I guess we will see what happens.

[wxman57]

Laura looks like quite the strengthening tropical storm today...

Red crosshairs mark NHC center:

[ConvergenceZone]

Fay was a minimal tropical storm as it crossed the entire length of Hispaniola and much of Cuba with virtually no effect, in fact first being classified as a TC as it came into the Dominican Republic; that's definitely extremely unusual and I don't expect this one to but there is certainly a precedent

Yea, that’s definitely a one off. It didn’t get its name “the shredder” for nothing.

[Jr0d]

https://twitter.com/PlinianWinds/status/1296830846524108801?

So these trained meteorologists are uncertain but amateurs on here are making pronouncements with finite certitude.

Dunning-Krueger effect....

Yesterday morning there were members here that thought it still might go out to sea, now with the center reformation it seems like the board consensus is this will stay South of Florida.

As a lifetime Florida resident, I know passing Hispaniola is the big check point for a Florida impact both track and intensity. Laura could get shredded to an open wave by the mountains or be steaming towards South Florida with conditions ripe for rapid intensification.

I can't stress this enough, the emergency planning for the Florida Keys is in a tough spot. Given the speed, they will have to make tough decisions before Laura clears Hispaniola. With only one road out, we need 48 hours to evacuate. This means a decision has to be made by tomorrow morning.

[AtlanticWind]

Feeling a little better in south florida now.

But still watching closely as have seen a lot of storms jump northeast in the
formation stage .
Also remembering how Dorian moved well east of forecast near this area last year.

[chris_fit]

Laura looks like quite the strengthening tropical storm today...

Red crosshairs mark NHC center:

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura2.JPG

Ok. I'll bite.

[Kazmit]

Laura looks like quite the strengthening tropical storm today...

Red crosshairs mark NHC center:

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura2.JPG

Ok. I'll bite.

https://i.imgur.com/cYapcHu.png

For a second there I thought he was being sarcastic.
But it is definitely looking better today compared to yesterday afternoon.

[Jr0d]

The Monroe County/Florida Keys mayor is having a press conference.

She says we are expecting a fairly minimal impact with tropical storm maybe category one hurricane but they are preparing for a category 2 just in case. No evacuation orders are being issued at this time, not even for non-residents, hotels, ECT..

Shelters will open up on Sunday mostly for people living aboard boats.

While I get that being overly bullish is not good, I feel like she is under estimating the potential impacts.

Obviously a tough decision, but as I said before we need 48 hours to evacuate and that window is closing.

[AutoPenalti]

Laura looks like quite the strengthening tropical storm today...

Red crosshairs mark NHC center:

http://wxman57.com/images/Laura2.JPG

Knowing wxman, this has to be sarcasm.