ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

[Visioen]

I feel like something is missing.

Oh right, it's Aric.

[Frank P]

https://i.imgur.com/60S6QSs.png

And that little vortex is moving just a tad west of due north on the vis sat loops..

[Javlin]

Well the last few vis sat loops hints of building convection near what I perceive as a possible center, and perhaps a hint of a more northerly component as well.. banding In the SE quad also appear to be improving.. all in all not too shabby for a TD in the grand scheme of things...

I just looked at the visible and it sure looks more NNW/NW the NHC track had it sliding over Honduras looks like it might miss it all together..that is if what I saw was the center about 15.5N 81.0W?

Is there multiple vorts?

I wonder is this the same one I saw last night? I stopped watching after that.

[Javlin]

https://i.imgur.com/60S6QSs.png

Has strong rotation that's for sure.

[NDG]

TD 14 is already getting tilted and its moisture getting pulled poleward by the UL trough to its north.

[3090]

TD 14 is already getting tilted and its moisture getting pulled poleward by the UL trough to its north.

I posted this earlier this morning. The western side of the 14 is essentially getting squashed/flattened.

[3090]

Future forecast track is going to be interesting. It is moving slightly west of due north, according to local met.

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Future forecast track is going to be interesting. It is moving slightly west of due north, according to local met.

Is following the convection, but it should start heading more NW later on as it starts bumping into the Bermuda ridge building in westward towards FL.

[chaser1]

Future forecast track is going to be interesting. It is moving slightly west of due north, according to local met.

Is following the convection, but it should start heading more NW later on as it starts bumping into the Bermuda ridge building in westward towards FL.

Yep, right now pretty much tracking with the lower level flow. A big convective blow-up over center and that turn back toward the NW might be an indication of it finally getting it's "vertical groove-on". Maybe Marco has finally found it's happy place? Providing that this LLC doesn't simply get spit out of the broader circulation, then it might finally earn it's name sometime tonight.

[3090]

It appears there is a lot of building clouds forming all around the system, though removed from the center.

[EquusStorm]

If we get Marco today, it would be earlier than Jose developed in 2005; the 13th storm this year could potentially develop earlier than the previous record earliest 10th storm. The pace this year is ridiculous.

[supercane4867]

Current NHC forecast track is unlikely but to pan out as it is at day 4-5. Possible interaction with Laura will prevent a beeline towards Texas.

[MississippiWx]

Now that we have a robust low level center, we may get some much stronger convection to build. I think it will look better this afternoon.

[Javlin]

If that happens to be the new center sure looks to be going due N the downfall ATTM is that alot of the energy it needs is being sucked N into the trof so it would seem that development if any will be late tonight or tomorrow but in the mean time it will go further N since it is so shallow.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

[tailgater]

[Nederlander]

Current NHC forecast track is unlikely but to pan out as it is at day 4-5. Possible interaction with Laura will prevent a beeline towards Texas.

Steering is pretty straightforward so I wouldn’t expect a major shift in the forecast track. As for interaction, I am a little less bullish on this as Laura would really need to speed up and/or 14 slow down substantially. Also, Laura looks like she is headed for a lot of land interaction with Hisp. and Cuba.

[SoupBone]

Current NHC forecast track is unlikely but to pan out as it is at day 4-5. Possible interaction with Laura will prevent a beeline towards Texas.

Steering is pretty straightforward so I wouldn’t expect a major shift in the forecast track. As for interaction, I am a little less bullish on this as Laura would really need to speed up and/or 14 slow down substantially. Also, Laura looks like she is headed for a lot of land interaction with Hisp. and Cuba.

I'm not so convinced. In this morning's discussions with our pro met, he mentioned that this tug north could move the track further east into the central Louisiana coast, IF the system were to become better developed. I think the story for this system will be defined in the coming hours.

[Nederlander]

Current NHC forecast track is unlikely but to pan out as it is at day 4-5. Possible interaction with Laura will prevent a beeline towards Texas.

Steering is pretty straightforward so I wouldn’t expect a major shift in the forecast track. As for interaction, I am a little less bullish on this as Laura would really need to speed up and/or 14 slow down substantially. Also, Laura looks like she is headed for a lot of land interaction with Hisp. and Cuba.

I'm not so convinced. In this morning's discussions with our pro met, he mentioned that this tug north could move the track further east into the central Louisiana coast, IF the system were to become better developed. I think the story for this system will be defined in the coming hours.

Yeah agree with that definitely. By major shift, I mean anything >150-200miles. Matagorda to Vermillion all in play IMO.