ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Circulating deep convection around the LLC.
Looks like a legit warm-core feature.

[3090]

Circulating deep convection around the LLC.
Looks like a legit warm-core feature.

https://i.imgur.com/Eelygb7.png

That is not really where they have the LLC as the fixed position though.

[xironman]

As mentioned earlier, there could be multiple eddies in the overall structure.

[aspen]

Well, we have our defined LLC. All we need is some actually decent convection and this’ll be on its way to becoming a TS.

[GCANE]

Circulating deep convection around the LLC.
Looks like a legit warm-core feature.

https://i.imgur.com/Eelygb7.png

That is not really where they have the LLC as the fixed position though.

Looks like there maybe two.
Also remember, the warm core is high up, around 400 to 300 mb.
Recon is mapping the surface.
So, if this is all correct, it would indicate the storm is not stacked yet.

[GCANE]

Circulating deep convection around the LLC.
Looks like a legit warm-core feature.

https://i.imgur.com/Eelygb7.png

That is not really where they have the LLC as the fixed position though.

Looks like there maybe two.
Also remember, the warm core is high up, around 400 to 300 mb.
Recon is mapping the surface.
So, if this is all correct, it would indicate the storm is not stacked yet.

I should also mention that these warm-core signatures vary spatially quite a bit during development.
A lot of times, they come and go.
But, it is a sign that a warm-core is developing.
An actually eye doesn't become apparent until a strong TS or low-grade Cat 1 develops.

[gatorcane]

Mentioned yesterday the convection we saw may not last and that they system looked better than it actually was due to not really have a good low-level center (i.e it was mostly mid-level). Indeed that appears to be true as we just witnessed a major poof in convection overnight. Here we are yet again with another struggling system in the Atlantic...should still have a shot of becoming a TS in the Gulf though but conditions there are marginal.

[tailgater]

I don’t see this TD 14 strengthening much in the short term, due the lack of organization and very broad pressure gradient. It will be hard to tell how much land interaction it will have until a solid center forms.
err correction they just found a new and more believable center with much better pressure gradiant

[Visioen]

I think it will organize faster than you can imagine. Yes it's a mess now but once decently over water in the NW-Carb I see no reason why it shouldn't. The angle made by land there actually helps it.

[xironman]

They definitely found a second eddy further off shore, looks good and lower pressure. You could see it on the early visibiles.

[GCANE]

36 knot unflagged, 30-sec SFMR

[GCANE]

Another vort at 16.5N 83.75W
1007mb
Real close to the current warm-core feature

[Visioen]

Very fluid situation.

[xironman]

If that vort hangs on there might not be as much land interaction with the Yucatan.

[SoupBone]

If that vort hangs on there might not be as much land interaction with the Yucatan.

Don't know if that ultimately matters as the Yucatan is really flat. But a center relocation could defintiely affect track for sure.

[Nederlander]

If that vort hangs on there might not be as much land interaction with the Yucatan.

Yep, pretty consistent with the past few runs of the GFS and Euro - hitting Cozumel and then scraping the tip of the peninsula

[GCANE]

I believe this new position more.
Way north of the current forecast track.
May not even hit the Yucatan.

[tiger_deF]

In 4 days I could totally believe if we had no systems (with Laura shredding itself over GA and this system not able to get it's act together) or two fully fledged hurricanes in the gulf, or anywhere in between. Much more uncertainty than usual with such a close proximity

[tailgater]

If that vort hangs on there might not be as much land interaction with the Yucatan.

Yep hard to believe that swirl could become a hurricane, fun to watch but hoping it doesn’t hurt anyone.

[xironman]

In 4 days I could totally believe if we had no systems (with Laura shredding itself over GA and this system not able to get it's act together) or two fully fledged hurricanes in the gulf, or anywhere in between. Much more uncertainty than usual with such a close proximity

The NHC discussion basically said that, this is from the thirteen discussion.

The possibilities range from the
system degenerating to an open wave as seen in the GFS and ECMWF to
a major hurricane as seen in the HWRF. Given the uncertainty, the
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and it
lies a little below the intensity consensus.