ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[invest man]

Got a question for those in the know. This may be a question that belongs somewhere else but here goes. Just read an article about the possibility that both 13 and 14 may come together as 1 possibly while both are in the northern Gulf. They kind of made it out that this could be a type of “perfect storm” like the one that hit the NE area a few years back that the movie was based upon. Question is, is this a possibility and if so is there any model that shows this set up and then where would it go after landfall? Article used a couple of storms that did this in the pacific a few years back. I’ve never seen this happen with 2 hurricanes or even TS’s in the Atlantic. Sorry mods if this is the wrong place to ask this question.

[cp79]

The only way I see this surviving is if the center can form on the north side of the convection as the HWRF is suggesting. If it’s lower down, it’s gonna get eaten up by Hispaniola. Model-wise, def a battle between Euro and HWRF as the two extremes. Euro has been killing it from day 1 while HWRF seems to be the most bullish.

[Cat5James]

The only way I see this surviving is if the center can form on the north side of the convection as the HWRF is suggesting. If it’s lower down, it’s gonna get eaten up by Hispaniola. Model-wise, def a battle between Euro and HWRF as the two extremes. Euro has been killing it from day 1 while HWRF seems to be the most bullish.

HWRF seems to have the best handle on it so far of any model

[SFLcane]

Should see an upgrade.

URNT12 KWBC 211220
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132020
A. 21/12:00:13Z
B. 16.70 deg N 059.51 deg W
C. 850 MB 1523 m
D. 1011 mb
E. 247 deg 17 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 41 kt
I. 014 deg 130 nm 11:23:08Z
J. 111 deg 42 kt
K. 011 deg 161 nm 11:14:13Z
L. 33 kt
M. 206 deg 6 nm 12:01:55Z
N. 206 deg 13 kt
O. 207 deg 9 nm 12:02:42Z
P. 17 C / 1537 m
Q. 21 C / 1523 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 13 / 8
T. 0.01 / 7 nm
U. NOAA2 0213A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 42 KT 011 / 161 NM 11:14:13Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 354 / 30 NM FROM FL CNTR

More then likely yes.. And again a little ahead of model guidance if you asked me.

[MarioProtVI]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

[Extratropical94]

Got a question for those in the know. This may be a question that belongs somewhere else but here goes. Just read an article about the possibility that both 13 and 14 may come together as 1 possibly while both are in the northern Gulf. They kind of made it out that this could be a type of “perfect storm” like the one that hit the NE area a few years back that the movie was based upon. Question is, is this a possibility and if so is there any model that shows this set up and then where would it go after landfall? Article used a couple of storms that did this in the pacific a few years back. I’ve never seen this happen with 2 hurricanes or even TS’s in the Atlantic. Sorry mods if this is the wrong place to ask this question.

Usually when two tropical cyclones get too close to each other, they start to rotate around a common midpoint, a phenomenon which is called the Fujiwhara effect. In most cases, the stronger storm will shear apart the weaker one and destroy the circulation, absorbing the remnants into its own circulation. There may be intensification afterwards, for example when the absorption of the weaker system draws additional moisture into the stronger system's circulation. However, that's not always the case and it definitely doesn't mean that the surviving system becomes a "perfect storm".

[SFLcane]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

Bang! lol

About time.

[NDG]

The only way I see this surviving is if the center can form on the north side of the convection as the HWRF is suggesting. If it’s lower down, it’s gonna get eaten up by Hispaniola. Model-wise, def a battle between Euro and HWRF as the two extremes. Euro has been killing it from day 1 while HWRF seems to be the most bullish.

HWRF seems to have the best handle on it so far of any model

Yep, I just looked at the 06z HWRF and it surely showed the CoC starting to form ENE from Guadeloupe where the recon found it.

[tolakram]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

Bang! lol

About time.

Source?

[gatorcane]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

[NDG]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

And all the bearish will go take a break now to come back later to say how it will run into the G.A. and get killed,

Props to the HWRF.

[gfsperpendicular]

Laura breaks Luis 1995's record by 8 days. From now on, all genesis records are held by 2005 (although 2011's Lee is tied with 2005's Maria.)

[ObsessedMiami]

As a Miami resident, I am watching but way too early to have a handle on its path through the area. I am already prepped from Isaiais or however you spell it so i will just casually watch until tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

HWRF performing well so far!

[ColdMiser123]

The only way I see this surviving is if the center can form on the north side of the convection as the HWRF is suggesting. If it’s lower down, it’s gonna get eaten up by Hispaniola. Model-wise, def a battle between Euro and HWRF as the two extremes. Euro has been killing it from day 1 while HWRF seems to be the most bullish.

The 6z Euro was significantly stronger than all other runs in the last several days, has a storm emerging into the Gulf now.

[NDG]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

How can you still call TS Laura a TW?

[Blown Away]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

Bang! lol

About time.

17.0N/59.5W... SW of 8am position, Laura will be riding the land train most likely.

[AutoPenalti]

13L THIRTEEN 200821 1200 17.0N 59.5W ATL 40 1008


We have Laura.

Looks like it's further NE of HWRF 06z @ 9hr

[tolakram]

Even if they upgrade, the system looks sheared and mid-level dry air looks to be a problem as it heads west. Also land interaction is another inhibitor. I am glad the NHC finally mentioned some of the inhibitors in the discussion which I have mentioned are there and would hinder development. The GFS and the Euro keep this weak the next 5 days. The HWRF keeps pushing back its CAT 5 prediction. I wouldn’t expect much from this wave or you may be disappointed. There is a chance that once it passes Florida it may become a hurricane but that is questionable looking at the state of the system and the inhibitors ahead.

How can you still call TS Laura a TW?

I'd like to know where the upgrade information is coming from.

[eastcoastFL]

More TS winds north of the center. 34kts at the surface.