ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I'll say this TD Fourteen looks much more impressive than TD Thirteen. I'm not sure if Thirteen has an LLC. It's really sucking in a lot of dry dusty air.

Does this change your opinion on track? The models are still all over the place with this one.

[Nuno]

You can see the south side of TD14 has a good westerly flow wrapping into the storm. The anticyclone is also helping ventilate it, look at the north and east side of the storm.

[Extratropical94]

Very weak W winds, but it appears to finally be closed.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m making a forecast for this one

I feel as though this will go over the Clip the Yucatán and be a hurricane for someone in the NW Gulf

Now TD. 35mph
12hrs. TS. 50mph
24hrs. TS. 65mph
36hrs. TS. 65mph
48hrs. TS. 50mph. Clips Yucatán
72hrs. TS. 65mph
96hrs. C1. 85mph Morgan City Louisiana
120hrs TD. 35mph Little Rock Arkansas

These are the views of a non professional, please look at the NHC NOAA or NWS for official products

[gatorcane]

While there is a low-level feature, this may be one of these systems that looks better than it actually is, looking at the loops, most of this may be at the mid-level so still needs to work down to the surface. Perhaps that is why the Euro and GFS only slowly develop. Will need to see if convection can sustain though Dmin. The GFS parallel really develops though but it seems to be overly bullish on systems this year so far. I did anticipate a TS in the Western Caribbean so looks to be on track for that.

[Aric Dunn]

Very weak W winds, but it appears to finally be closed.

https://i.imgur.com/ABe8rL0.jpg

Better on Hi res. but man there is a lot of ambiguities here too. past 3 systems have been really bad .. earlier in the season they all pretty clear.

piece together the ambiguities and looks like 15 kt westerly winds extending well to the south.

[MGC]

Trough over western GOM should steer TD-14 towards NGOM coast. I'm thinking LA/MS area.....MGC

Just my opinion, not an official forecast.

[cycloneye]

While there is a low-level feature, this may be one of these systems that looks better than it actually is, looking at the loops, most of this may be at the mid-level so still needs to work down to the surface. Perhaps that is why the Euro and GFS only slowly develop. Will need to see if convection can sustain though Dmin. The GFS parallel really develops though but it seems to be overly bullish on systems this year so far. I did anticipate a TS in the Western Caribbean so looks to be on track for that.

AF Plane will verify that soon.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Still seeing some dry air boundaries from collapsing thunderstorms shooting out to the SW but nothing like what was happening yesterday

[supercane4867]

11AM discussion mentioned hurricane strength as a possibility before the potential Yucatan landfall.

[PTrackerLA]

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/FlFQkqJ.png

Well that's quite the change from a Tex/Mex solution. Putting Houston in its potential path now. And we've had no real discussions on that area being a threat.

[supercane4867]

Very good structure for RI in the short run.

[1900hurricane]

NHC is explicitly forecasting two TCs in the gulf at the same time. Don't think I've ever seen that before.

[Aric Dunn]

Couple deep towers building up through that distinct MLC.. watching to see if those wrap around.

if so.. expect some possible quicker deepening.

[Kazmit]

The way it's looking right now reminds me a lot of Hurricane Earl 2016.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://i.imgur.com/FlFQkqJ.png

That track from NHC is a little strange in that it bends slightly more west crossing the Yucatan. What would be the reasoning for that?

[tiger_deF]

I wouldn't be surprised if we already have tropical storm Laura as a mid range TS.

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if we already have tropical storm Laura as a mid range TS.

I am fully expecting it to be.

[shiny-pebble]

It's looking pretty good. It's structure is definitely favorable for quick intensification

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