Tropical Wave in Cabo Verde Islands

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2020

A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea,
Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern
Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the
central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[EquusStorm]

Euro picks up on it, keeps it weak in the MDR and looks to be on a similar track to Gert 2017 intensifying near Bermuda. Way too early though

[Extratropical94]

It does have some support for MDR development from the GFS and GFS-Para ensembles.

00Z GEFS + 120


00Z GEFS-Para + 120

[bob rulz]

Wow that wave is MASSIVE.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is actually showing some development with this one

[gatorcane]

Down to 999MB at 150 hours. May become a hurricane on this run out in the open Atlantic and looks like this run would safely recurve.

[aspen]

Down to 999MB at 150 hours. May become a hurricane on this run out in the open Atlantic and looks like this run would safely recurve.

Yep, it ends up as an out-to-sea long tracking Cat1 hurricane. I’m surprised how much the GFS is loving this wave, now that it shows almost nothing with 97L and 98L. The Euro ensembles also showed this system yesterday or the day before. Maybe the 12z Euro will show it.

[EquusStorm]

A nice open Atlantic hurricane safely recurving would be great. If it doesn't get entangled in the dry air still covering the area, will be a nice one to watch.

[cycloneye]

A large area of showers and thunderstorms, located over Guinea and
Sierra-Leone, Africa, is associated with a vigorous tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
development of this system while the wave enters the extreme eastern
Atlantic on Friday. By early next week, however, conditions are
forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation
while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph toward the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Probably has a better shot at major hurricane status over Invests 97L & 98L.

[Blinhart]

Probably has a better shot at major hurricane status over Invests 97L & 98L.

I think all 3 of them have an excellent chance of becoming massive majors.

[AnnularCane]

Probably has a better shot at major hurricane status over Invests 97L & 98L.

I think all 3 of them have an excellent chance of becoming massive majors.

The NHC doesn't seem to hold out much hope for this one yet, at least not in the long run. Do you think that will change?

[TallyTracker]

The models have been hinting at this one developing for a few days now. It curves north over open water pretty quickly after the Cabo Verde Islands.

[eastcoastFL]

Gfs developes this and sends it out to sea.

[aspen]

12z GFS-Para has an Irma-like track until it gets to the Bahamas, where it curves into the Outer Banks and later out to sea. Peaks as a Cat 1 hurricane.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS drops the hurricane idea like bag of bricks. Moves a weak system west in the MDR as a wave with no development. Back to no love for the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move over the
far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday, and some slow development
is possible through the weekend while it moves west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[CrazyC83]

A bit surprised they haven't tagged 99L yet.

[gfsperpendicular]

A bit surprised they haven't tagged 99L yet.

Maybe they're waiting for splashdown? Either way it'll be soon

[Extratropical94]

20/40

A tropical wave over western Africa is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms near the Africa coast. This wave is
expected to move over the far eastern tropical Atlantic on Friday,
and some slow development is possible through the weekend while it
moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.