2020 EPAC Season

[gatorcane]

GFS is keeping the MJO in the basin for too long. Disregard.

It might be incorrect on the MJO but strongest run yet and genesis starts in a week

[NDG]

GFS is keeping the MJO in the basin for too long. Disregard.

It might be incorrect on the MJO but strongest run yet and genesis starts in a week

https://i.postimg.cc/dQ7PJ20f/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-42.png

You're sure are hanging on to the last few threads of the GFS that little by little have been breaking

[Kingarabian]

I mean there doesn't HAVE to be an MJO pulse or a favorable CCKW for there to be development in any particular basin. So the GFS could be correct in that the EPAC continues to push out a system or two after the favorable MJO phase moves into the Atlantic. But the models have been overdoing EPAC development all season long so we have no choice but to take their forecasts with a grain of salt.

[NDG]

I mean there doesn't HAVE to be an MJO pulse or a favorable CCKW for there to be development in any particular basin. So the GFS could be correct in that the EPAC continues to push out a system or two after the favorable MJO phase moves into the Atlantic. But the models have been overdoing EPAC development all season long so we have no choice but to take their forecasts with a grain of salt.

Agree, and if it is one system that has been overdoing it is the GFS.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to show the next one behind Genevieve and also more after that:

[gatorcane]

The Euro is showing activity in the EPAC after Genevieve. So now the GFS and Euro show development.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to keep the EPAC active. Genesis starts around 5 days. Mentioned by NHC.



2. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several
hundred miles west of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Conditions
appear favorable for some development of this system this
weekend while it moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

UKMET insisting on a CPAC system while the GFS and Euro are not on board but they do show the system. Looks like another system closer to Mexico on the EPAC side is in the cards as well.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the EPAC could have another hurricane if the GFS is correct:

[gatorcane]

More activity on deck for the EPAC according to the GFS:

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it looks like the EPAC will continue to lead the world wide basins in ACE if the models verify until September. After that it'll probably be all Atlantic.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

As long as we get to Polo to meet the Atlantic's Marco, I'll be happy.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah it looks like the EPAC will continue to lead the world wide basins in ACE if the models verify until September. After that it'll probably be all Atlantic.

The Atlantic will likely outperform the East Pacific in ACE and definitely by a long shot in named storms but I just don’t see the 200 units CSU is forecasting.

The East Pacific may be able to squeeze out a few more names and a hurricane or two, but as you said the Atlantic usually steals the thunder come September. Besides doesn’t the East Pacific peak in July and August?

[Kingarabian]

Yeah it looks like the EPAC will continue to lead the world wide basins in ACE if the models verify until September. After that it'll probably be all Atlantic.

The Atlantic will likely outperform the East Pacific in ACE and definitely by a long shot in named storms but I just don’t see the 200 units CSU is forecasting.

The East Pacific may be able to squeeze out a few more names and a hurricane or two, but as you said the Atlantic usually steals the thunder come September. Besides doesn’t the East Pacific peak in July and August?

EPAC in warm neutral or El Nino years remains active till November. Different areas within the basin peak at different times though.

[TheStormExpert]

As long as we get to Polo to meet the Atlantic's Marco, I'll be happy.

It’s coincidentally funny how Marco and Polo are both on each respective name list for the same year, though I highly doubt we get to Polo in the East Pacific this year seeing how things are playing out.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah it looks like the EPAC will continue to lead the world wide basins in ACE if the models verify until September. After that it'll probably be all Atlantic.

The Atlantic will likely outperform the East Pacific in ACE and definitely by a long shot in named storms but I just don’t see the 200 units CSU is forecasting.

The East Pacific may be able to squeeze out a few more names and a hurricane or two, but as you said the Atlantic usually steals the thunder come September. Besides doesn’t the East Pacific peak in July and August?

EPAC in warm neutral or El Nino years remains active till November. Different areas within the basin peak at different times though.

Yes, but I was referring to in general when the most activity happens.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS/ECMWF seem insistent on developing the 40/80 as it moves very slowly tn the northeast and a quick-fire TS that hits Michoacán from the 0/50.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure appears to be forming a couple of hundred
miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week
while it moves slowly northwestward, near or parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, areas of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely in southeastern
Mexico and northern Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 98E is up

[gatorcane]

Models don’t have much in the EPAC for a while. You would think the models would show a more active Atlantic. Interesting how both the Atlantic and the EPAC were active at the same time just a week or so back. Sometimes that happens.