ATL: LAURA - Models

[TheStormExpert]

Another storm that was coming from the SE towards Florida is Frances in 2004. It slowed to a crawl in the NW Bahamas before the ridge rebuilt to its north shoving it into East-Central Florida. So it is possible to see a East Cost of Florida strike from the SE and not due East.

I've been saying since this came off of Africa that this thing had a Frances vibe to it. Setup seems very similar.

I’d say the same thing only it seems every storm or hurricane that’s threatened Florida from the SE over the past four to five years has found an escape route through The Bahamas and either striking the Outer Banks or OTS. Not saying it’ll play out the same way this time but it’s definitely on the table.

[Cat5James]

Another storm that was coming from the SE towards Florida is Frances in 2004. It slowed to a crawl in the NW Bahamas before the ridge rebuilt to its north shoving it into East-Central Florida. So it is possible to see a East Cost of Florida strike from the SE and not due East.

I've been saying since this came off of Africa that this thing had a Frances vibe to it. Setup seems very similar.

I’d say the same thing only it seems every storm or hurricane that’s threatened Florida from the SE over the past four to five years has found an escape route through The Bahamas and either striking the Outer Banks or OTS. Not saying it’ll play out the same way this time but it’s definitely on the table.

Irma 2017

[ConvergenceZone]

Does tropical Tidbits charge for 18Z model data because it costs them $$$ in order to retrieve it?

[Evil Jeremy]

After watching Levi's video tonight I think I might wait another 48 hours to look at a model. Might.

That's a good idea. I'm still burned out from the last storm, and the globals are all over the place with 97L and 98L. I haven't really looked into 98L yet, I just hope it's not another 5 days of code red before there's a circulation for the models to latch onto.

[stormlover2013]

Prob needs to be more like 4-5 days

[ConvergenceZone]

18z Euro Model data doesn't look too much different than 12z really..

[eastcoastFL]

After watching Levi's video tonight I think I might wait another 48 hours to look at a model. Might.

Ya sure... Are you all stocked up if we do have to deal with one of these?

I was ready for a Cat 4 on June 1st. Like 99.5% ready Just have to buy more beer. That's it. Entire checklist and then some done.

Same here. Gotta go by the Jensen Bjs and grab a few more boxes of water. Covid laziness has me dipping into the reserves.

[Frank2]

Funny how people are hating the GFS loving the CMC when it's the CMC people usually laugh at, because the GFS grid resolution was modified so it would not spin up everything out there and now has gone in the other direction and is not showing anything...

I agree with comments that say all models are struggling for lack of pilot reports.

Frank

[TheStormExpert]

I've been saying since this came off of Africa that this thing had a Frances vibe to it. Setup seems very similar.

I’d say the same thing only it seems every storm or hurricane that’s threatened Florida from the SE over the past four to five years has found an escape route through The Bahamas and either striking the Outer Banks or OTS. Not saying it’ll play out the same way this time but it’s definitely on the table.

Irma 2017

Well that’s the exception, but even it missed metropolitan SE Florida when it came to sustained hurricane force winds.

[DestinHurricane]

I’d say the same thing only it seems every storm or hurricane that’s threatened Florida from the SE over the past four to five years has found an escape route through The Bahamas and either striking the Outer Banks or OTS. Not saying it’ll play out the same way this time but it’s definitely on the table.

Irma 2017

Well that’s the exception, but even it missed metropolitan SE Florida when it came to sustained hurricane force winds.

Luck will eventually run out. Just because a few have missed in the last 5 years doesn't change the fact that SE FL is the hurricane hit capital of the CONUS.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’d say the same thing only it seems every storm or hurricane that’s threatened Florida from the SE over the past four to five years has found an escape route through The Bahamas and either striking the Outer Banks or OTS. Not saying it’ll play out the same way this time but it’s definitely on the table.

Irma 2017

Well that’s the exception, but even it missed metropolitan SE Florida when it came to sustained hurricane force winds.

we can get missed for the next 5 years by 20 more storms, but eventually, something is going to hit from that angle.

this "luck" is not going to last forever.

[eastcoastFL]

Irma 2017

Well that’s the exception, but even it missed metropolitan SE Florida when it came to sustained hurricane force winds.

we can get missed for the next 5 years by 20 more storms, but eventually, something is going to hit from that angle.

this "luck" is not going to last forever.

True. Also it doesn’t have to come from the east to put a hurt on SE FL. I experienced Frances and Jeanne from the east but the most powerful storm I’ve ever been through was Wilma and she hit us from the west. She just never let up while she crossed the state rapidly and angrily.

[TheStormExpert]

Irma 2017

Well that’s the exception, but even it missed metropolitan SE Florida when it came to sustained hurricane force winds.

Luck will eventually run out. Just because a few have missed in the last 5 years doesn't change the fact that SE FL is the hurricane hit capital of the CONUS.

Our luck will run out, no doubt! But these close calls and near misses have probably created a sense of complacency for some. All I hear from many is we’ve been lucky over the past several years with storms dodging us left and right.

[eastcoastFL]

Well that’s the exception, but even it missed metropolitan SE Florida when it came to sustained hurricane force winds.

Luck will eventually run out. Just because a few have missed in the last 5 years doesn't change the fact that SE FL is the hurricane hit capital of the CONUS.

Our luck will run out, no doubt! But these close calls and near misses have probably created a sense of complacency for some. All I hear from many is we’ve been lucky over the past several years with storms dodging us left and right.

You’re 100% correct. Some come to believe that’s the new rule where others like myself view it as “we’re due”. With everything that misses us our odds shrink because eventually something won’t miss. I just hope it’s not a Dorian. That was too close.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Luck will eventually run out. Just because a few have missed in the last 5 years doesn't change the fact that SE FL is the hurricane hit capital of the CONUS.

Our luck will run out, no doubt! But these close calls and near misses have probably created a sense of complacency for some. All I hear from many is we’ve been lucky over the past several years with storms dodging us left and right.

You’re 100% correct. Some come to believe that’s the new rule where others like myself view it as “we’re due”. With everything that misses us our odds shrink because eventually something won’t miss. I just hope it’s not a Dorian. That was too close.

dorian and irma scared the hell out of me. matthew was threatening too, but staring in the face of an 170+ mph monster is just different.

[CrazyC83]

Between 97L and 98L, I think this is the more threatening one - and may be sooner to develop. Models have really backed off of 97L.

[stormlover2013]

Icon showing fish it looks like will keep flip flopping

[caneseddy]

Icon showing fish it looks like will keep flip flopping

Actually it shows a west turn at the end of the run

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I noticed that once the EURO showed out to sea, the frequency of the posts on the 98L thread decreased rapidly. But if they turn towards land once again, it will get busy here again....We see it every season

[BobHarlem]

Icon slows it down, never makes it to land, but the run ends just north of the Bahamas as a major. It's also setting up 97L to landfall maybe in Texas at the same time that 98L would if it hit the east coast (extrapolating).