ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

[BYG Jacob]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

How many times does the gulf have to teach us the lesson to never turn your back on it?

[aspen]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

How many times does the gulf have to teach us the lesson to never turn your back on it?

Just look at Hanna. Models were showing almost nothing, but it rapidly intensified into a high end Cat 1 in the final hours before landfall...and that was in July.

[BYG Jacob]

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

How many times does the gulf have to teach us the lesson to never turn your back on it?

Just look at Hanna. Models were showing almost nothing, but it rapidly intensified into a high end Cat 1 in the final hours before landfall...and that was in July.

Or Michael, Katrina, Rita, Charley. This list goes on.

[EquusStorm]

With water temperatures like that, might even be able to pull a Humberto; doesn't take long sometimes.

[captainbarbossa19]

With water temperatures like that, might even be able to pull a Humberto; doesn't take long sometimes.

Ugh. I do not want to talk about Humberto. I went to bed and it was just a tropical storm. Within a few hours, I woke up to the sound of a hurricane. He didn't cause too much damage at my location, but he still was a lot stronger than I had hoped.

[HurricaneBelle]

Sorry, this was all I could think of reading this thread:

[ConvergenceZone]

Haha, funny image. It’s true though. I think 97L is going to suprise lots of folks as it moves through the Carib.

And it’s sitting way to low to be an out to sea storm

[Aric Dunn]

Vorticity this afternoon as drastically increased as the wave axis has crossed into the eastern carrib. even a little vort has developed west of Grenada and St vincent. really curious to see what the overnight brings..

the wave axis is quite a bit ahead of schedule.

[psyclone]

That meme never gets old. Long range model runs should be safely locked away from children...and adults who act like children. Oh screw that...haven't we been waiting like 9 months for this sort of late night, pulse quickening tracking? Of course we have. It's our favorite sickness. Welcome back everyone and welcome to late August...time for a multi course serving of something...for someone.

[sma10]

The way 2020 has gone, the safe bet is to assume that by late weekend both systems will be ramped up and everyone will be going crazy

[Steve]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

I think we all have to be realistic though. I posted yesterday that I thought it could potentially make a run at a moderate cane and got some flack for that. I didn't say it couldn't get to major status and I didn't downplay it for a wash-out. And I don't ever argue with western Gulf processes. But there's only so much energy in a given area in a given pattern. Like wxman57 said, this is the forerunner for what looks to be a much more substantial system. We see that pretty often when there is a 1-2 shot at the Gulf. It's not always the second system that is stronger, but often the first clears the path for the system behind.

So I'm not down-playing 97L. But I'm not scared out of my wits yet either.

[Aric Dunn]

We have some developing meso rotation showing up on radar now right near St Vincent. Satellite also showing much-increased curvature.

[johngaltfla]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

Any GoM storm will probably be a monster, no way anyone who lives on/near the Gulf Coast should be downplaying this scenario for either Invest.

[3090]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

I think we all have to be realistic though. I posted yesterday that I thought it could potentially make a run at a moderate cane and got some flack for that. I didn't say it couldn't get to major status and I didn't downplay it for a wash-out. And I don't ever argue with western Gulf processes. But there's only so much energy in a given area in a given pattern. Like wxman57 said, this is the forerunner for what looks to be a much more substantial system. We see that pretty often when there is a 1-2 shot at the Gulf. It's not always the second system that is stronger, but often the first clears the path for the system behind.

So I'm not down-playing 97L. But I'm not scared out of my wits yet either.

I think it is out right foolish to say; “I am not worried about X. I am worried about Y”. Unless you are god. Last time I looked, there are no gods on this board.

[toad strangler]

As incredulous as that is, there are a few out there which are actually doing it.

I think we all have to be realistic though. I posted yesterday that I thought it could potentially make a run at a moderate cane and got some flack for that. I didn't say it couldn't get to major status and I didn't downplay it for a wash-out. And I don't ever argue with western Gulf processes. But there's only so much energy in a given area in a given pattern. Like wxman57 said, this is the forerunner for what looks to be a much more substantial system. We see that pretty often when there is a 1-2 shot at the Gulf. It's not always the second system that is stronger, but often the first clears the path for the system behind.

So I'm not down-playing 97L. But I'm not scared out of my wits yet either.

I think it is out right foolish to say; “I am not worried about X. I am worried about Y”. Unless you are god. Last time I looked, there are no gods on this board.

I'm more worried about Y

[eastcoastFL]

I think we all have to be realistic though. I posted yesterday that I thought it could potentially make a run at a moderate cane and got some flack for that. I didn't say it couldn't get to major status and I didn't downplay it for a wash-out. And I don't ever argue with western Gulf processes. But there's only so much energy in a given area in a given pattern. Like wxman57 said, this is the forerunner for what looks to be a much more substantial system. We see that pretty often when there is a 1-2 shot at the Gulf. It's not always the second system that is stronger, but often the first clears the path for the system behind.

So I'm not down-playing 97L. But I'm not scared out of my wits yet either.

I think it is out right foolish to say; “I am not worried about X. I am worried about Y”. Unless you are god. Last time I looked, there are no gods on this board.

I'm more worried about Y

I’m equally concerned about both. Also equally skeptical until they form.

[St0rmTh0r]

The main point should be there are two tropical entities moving towards land masses with plenty of time over water during the back end of August. Someone's likely to get hit the question is who and how bad. It's fun to speculate but nobody will know anything till this weekend

[shiny-pebble]

Lots of convection firing off, and looking like its getting more consolidated.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[Nimbus]

Levi mentioned the shear in the Caribbean isn't quite as bad as it was earlier in the season.
I could see a tumbleweed system get its act together near Jamaica and possibly shoot the Yucatan channel as it spun up.