When will Kyle form?

[cycloneye]

Now that Josephine formed,the question in this poll is when will Kyle form? The voting has ended.

I voted August 21-31.

[sma10]

Now that Josephine formed,the question in this poll is when will Kyle form? The voting will close on August 16 at 11:38 AM.

I voted August 21-31.

Starting to like the feature around 10n 30w to maybe become Kyle around the 18th or so

[aspen]

I’m a little iffy on the potential STC in the central Atlantic, so I voted for August 21-31st. Kyle will probably be one of the 2-3 systems that will form at the end of the month once the peak season outbreak begins.

[MarioProtVI]

12z August 25 in the western MDR, enters Caribbean and intensifies slightly to a hurricane but doesn’t get much stronger (fluctuates between C1 and TS) until the GoM, at which point it rapidly intensifies into a C3 that strikes western Louisiana as a minimal C3. Peak intensity of 120/954.

[AveryTheComrade]

I voted August 21st - 31st but i could see it forming next week or even this weekend if that subtropics thing verifies. Either way I don't expect it to be strong, probably not much more than a C1 if even a hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

Probably the area now highlighted to move off the North Carolina coast. Will most likely be Subtropical in nature and short-lived.

Btw, what’s the furthest down the list we’ve gone before seeing our first major hurricane?

[captainbarbossa19]

I voted August 21-31. However, I am going to narrow this even more. I think August 20-25. The models have been horrible with cyclogenesis. This unfavorable pattern is probably about to end soon. I think it will not be much longer before the first major hurricane forms too.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Late this weekend or early next week. System currently sitting over NC that will exit to the East.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Probably the area now highlighted to move off the North Carolina coast. Will most likely be Subtropical in nature and short-lived.

Btw, what’s the furthest down the list we’ve gone before seeing our first major hurricane?

I believe that would be Major Hurricane Michael in 2012, which peaked at 100kt/964mb.

I'm also liking the area off the Carolina coast, but we'll see if it manages to organize enough.

[StruThiO]

The lull continues as a new disturbance has a 30% of developing off the East coast. IMO, that could become Kyle sooner than the Aug 21-31 range that I voted for.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The lull continues as a new disturbance has a 30% of developing off the East coast. IMO, that could become Kyle sooner than the Aug 21-31 range that I voted for.

you know the season is active when your "lull" consists of 2 named storms.

[StruThiO]

The lull continues as a new disturbance has a 30% of developing off the East coast. IMO, that could become Kyle sooner than the Aug 21-31 range that I voted for.

you know the season is active when your "lull" consists of 2 named storms.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. The fact that people are STILL trying to downcast this season just makes me sad, honestly.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The lull continues as a new disturbance has a 30% of developing off the East coast. IMO, that could become Kyle sooner than the Aug 21-31 range that I voted for.

you know the season is active when your "lull" consists of 2 named storms.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. The fact that people are STILL trying to downcast this season just makes me sad, honestly.

same people who are hyping up the epac "outbreak" that has so produced one cat 2 and one weak depression/storm as something that will kill the atlantic for 2 weeks.

[StruThiO]

you know the season is active when your "lull" consists of 2 named storms.

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. The fact that people are STILL trying to downcast this season just makes me sad, honestly.

same people who are hyping up the epac "outbreak" that has so produced one cat 2 and one weak depression/storm as something that will kill the atlantic for 2 weeks.

It's literally just an MJO pulse.... I don't understand if people are trying everything they can to convince themselves this year won't be active because of how awful 2020 has been in general, or what?????

[AxaltaRacing24]

Yeah, that's what I was getting at. The fact that people are STILL trying to downcast this season just makes me sad, honestly.

same people who are hyping up the epac "outbreak" that has so produced one cat 2 and one weak depression/storm as something that will kill the atlantic for 2 weeks.

It's literally just an MJO pulse.... I don't understand if people are trying everything they can to convince themselves this year won't be active because of how awful 2020 has been in general, or what?????

people just expect august to flip the switch the second it starts, but often forget that until august 20th, this month is just a glorified version of july.

this is a transitional month, august bridges the gap between july's early season conditions and september's peak.

[Ubuntwo]

same people who are hyping up the epac "outbreak" that has so produced one cat 2 and one weak depression/storm as something that will kill the atlantic for 2 weeks.

It's literally just an MJO pulse.... I don't understand if people are trying everything they can to convince themselves this year won't be active because of how awful 2020 has been in general, or what?????

people just expect august to flip the switch the second it starts, but often forget that until august 20th, this month is just a glorified version of july.

this is a transitional month, august bridges the gap between july's early season conditions and september's peak.

Little exaggerated there, even early August is traditionally far more active than any time of July. This year's July was a huge outlier with five named storms, which makes the currently-suppressed part of August seem to stand out. Of course whenever the MJO moves into phase we can expect that huge August burst.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It's literally just an MJO pulse.... I don't understand if people are trying everything they can to convince themselves this year won't be active because of how awful 2020 has been in general, or what?????

people just expect august to flip the switch the second it starts, but often forget that until august 20th, this month is just a glorified version of july.

this is a transitional month, august bridges the gap between july's early season conditions and september's peak.

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/743556585036578906/peakofseason.png
Little exaggerated there, even early August is traditionally far more active than any time of July. This year's July was a huge outlier with five named storms, which makes the currently-suppressed part of August seem to stand out. Of course whenever the MJO moves into phase we can expect that huge August burst.

That's why i said "glorified." it is clearly more active and begins to become more favorable, but there's still july conditions (such as shear and sal) that still keep the lid on things for the first 15 days or so.

[EquusStorm]

Honestly in some recent years July has even been a little more active than the first part of August; two hurricanes back to back in July 2018 and only two weak high latitude subtropical storms the entire month of August til the 31st, and a (crappy looking) hurricane plus TD3 last July then a completely and literally dead basin until August 20

[mcheer23]

The date that Kyle may form isn't even on here. How often does that happen? Lol. Just shows you how fast things can change.

[AnnularCane]

The date that Kyle may form isn't even on here. How often does that happen? Lol. Just shows you how fast things can change.

Guess the little guy is just going to have to wait till tomorrow.