ATL: JOSEPHINE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Another high-helicity tower.
Seems to happen about this time every day.
That'll get all those little stray vorts lined up.

[EquusStorm]

Whatever its classification as a wave or a tropical storm, it's certainly got pretty nice convective persistence on the north side; would prefer to not be under that in a small craft

[Ubuntwo]

Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model analyses.

Hmmm... From the discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Some arc clouds west of the main convective mass suggest that dry air is entraining into the system. However, where this dry air is coming from is not readily apparent in satellite imagery or model analyses.

Hmmm... From the discussion

A developing dry slot?

[wxman57]

I still can't pick out a circulation center. Here's a sat pic valid 21Z, same time as the NHC advisory. Jack's (Beven) position is marked (14.5N/50.6W). I don't see anything there when I run the loop back a bit. I still think it's likely an open wave that will hit a wall of shear in 24 hrs.

[AveryTheComrade]

I still can't pick out a circulation center. Here's a sat pic valid 21Z, same time as the NHC advisory. Jack's (Beven) position is marked (14.5N/50.6W). I don't see anything there when I run the loop back a bit. I still think it's likely an open wave that will hit a wall of shear in 24 hrs.

http://wxman57.com/images/Josephine4.JPG

I'm not sure what you're talking about, the circulation is fairly obviously here when looking at the loop

[gatorcane]

I thought it might have a chance as it recurves out of the MDR but this shear looks like it may shred this completely to the point it can’t even regenerate.

[cainjamin]

The circulation is still pretty elongated. You can see a lot of southerly winds and a lot of northerly winds but not many westerlies on visible. Conditions clearly aren't that favourable for Josephine, and I would be surprised if she got near the 50KT peak currently being forecast. But then again, it's August in the tropics so anything could happen.

[Kingarabian]

Whatever its classification as a wave or a tropical storm, it's certainly got pretty nice convective persistence on the north side; would prefer to not be under that in a small craft

Yeah I agree. It's in a gray area for sure.

[wxman57]

I still can't pick out a circulation center. Here's a sat pic valid 21Z, same time as the NHC advisory. Jack's (Beven) position is marked (14.5N/50.6W). I don't see anything there when I run the loop back a bit. I still think it's likely an open wave that will hit a wall of shear in 24 hrs.

http://wxman57.com/images/Josephine4.JPG

I'm not sure what you're talking about, the circulation is fairly obviously here when looking at the loop
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/649039647405637673/743587876545101865/unknown.png

That matches Beven's position, but I see another little swirl east of there, too. Very poorly-organized.

[curtadams]

Another high-helicity tower.
Seems to happen about this time every day.
That'll get all those little stray vorts lined up.

Sputtering convection. Pretty standard for a TS under high shear.

[Visioen]

The clock is ticking. Potential for surprises to the upside dwindling away.

[Nimbus]

In the last hour the convection has increased with a tongue of moisture lifting closer to the suspect center.

[GCANE]

Another high-helicity tower.
Seems to happen about this time every day.
That'll get all those little stray vorts lined up.

Sputtering convection. Pretty standard for a TS under high shear.

Define sputtering

[Visioen]

I'm loving the different views and conversation.

[ozonepete]

Convection looks to be getting stripped away to the NW of the center, could be exposed again soon.

Aaand there it is. Pretty confident that’s the bottom half of the center now exposed on the south end of the main convection.

It's not.

[Aric Dunn]

That tower south of the main convection is right over the center.. lets see if that expands. plenty of convergence towards the center ... just mid level shear is giving it hair cuts.

[Aric Dunn]

That convection is popping right over the center... the area south of the main convection.

[JaxGator]

Hurricane Hunters are on-route to St. Croix.

Hurricane Hunters
@53rdWRS
·
5h
Our two crews of #ReserveCitizenAirman Hurricane Hunters have made like trees to go to St. Croix from which they are scheduled to fly fixes through #TSJosephine into the weekend.

[AnnularCane]

Hurricane Hunters are on-route to St. Croix.

Hurricane Hunters
@53rdWRS
·
5h
Our two crews of #ReserveCitizenAirman Hurricane Hunters have made like trees to go to St. Croix from which they are scheduled to fly fixes through #TSJosephine into the weekend.

When is the first flight scheduled?