2020 EPAC Season

[gatorcane]

Major cane???

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS cranked out 5 names system in the EPAC this run over two weeks. In the super-long range it shows them lining up just south of Central America where those above normal SSTs are. If this happens, would keep the shear pretty high over the Gulf and Caribbean as well as sinking air in those regions. I am a little skeptical the storms will keep cranking one after the other but we will see:

[Astromanía]

I hope those systems consolidate and help the EPAC on ACE before the área gets dead again, none of them will affect land it appears so I'm happy, well actually I'm pretty sure Revillagigedo islands will be affected with every single one lol but I'm not worry for them

[cycloneye]

1. An area of low pressure will likely form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a few days. Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could
also become a tropical depression late this week while it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[gatorcane]

Not as strong as the GFS, but Euro is quite strong for the potential major EPAC hurricane being hinted at by the models:



CMC has it also:

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

[MarioProtVI]

The 12Z GFS cranked out 5 names system in the EPAC this run over two weeks. In the super-long range it shows them lining up just south of Central America where those above normal SSTs are. If this happens, would keep the shear pretty high over the Gulf and Caribbean as well as sinking air in those regions. I am a little skeptical the storms will keep cranking one after the other but we will see:

https://i.postimg.cc/c4wLBWVD/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-59.png

The GFS seems to have a Pacific bias lately which also is a bit evident by the excess shear in the Caribbean. Highly doubt this will happen as the EPac this year has been trash (excluding Douglas and 01E) and it seems like the GFS doesn’t know we have a forming La Niña.

[Yellow Evan]

The 12Z GFS cranked out 5 names system in the EPAC this run over two weeks. In the super-long range it shows them lining up just south of Central America where those above normal SSTs are. If this happens, would keep the shear pretty high over the Gulf and Caribbean as well as sinking air in those regions. I am a little skeptical the storms will keep cranking one after the other but we will see:

https://i.postimg.cc/c4wLBWVD/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-59.png

The GFS seems to have a Pacific bias lately which also is a bit evident by the excess shear in the Caribbean. Highly doubt this will happen as the EPac this year has been trash (excluding Douglas and 01E) and it seems like the GFS doesn’t know we have a forming La Niña.

We probably won’t see as much activity as depicted by the GFS but I’m slowly gaining confidence that we could see 2-3 systems in addition to Elida, which so far is showing promise, in the next 10 days to be honest.

[Kingarabian]

Even if we an outbreak of strong systems, we could still end up below average. When there's a basin wide outbreak the waters cool due to upwelling. So with a developing La Nina, the warm anomalies could not recover as fast enough or maybe not even re-warm as they were.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS down to 931MB at 252 hours south of Baja

[aspen]

The 0/40 AOIs both have a decent shot of becoming at least a strong TS. Both have solid model support, form well within five days, and get in the 980 mbar range on the GFS. However, I am highly doubtful of any of those post day 7 majors, just based on the poor performance of the models over the last several months and how most systems in the EPac this year tend to underperform.

[cycloneye]

1. An area of low pressure will likely form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a few days. Environmental
conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Another area of low pressure is expected to form well offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could
also become a tropical depression late this week while it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

EPAC:


CPAC:


Looks like the NHC and maybe the CPHC will be busy throughout August.

[gatorcane]

EPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/xoZOL3H.png

CPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/ARB6ccN.png

Looks like the NHC and maybe the CPHC will be busy throughout August.

Looks that way. The long-range GFS has yet another that moves just offshore the Central American coastline heading WNW, but this is fantasy land so likely a completely different solution next run. Still the model is signaling favorable conditions on the EPAC side for the foreseeable future.

[storminabox]

I believe that the next week or so will be the most favorable period of the season for EPAC. I bet we’ll get a good 3-4 systems out of this burst and I’m sure the Eastern Pacifics rather low ACE will get a good boost.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a few days. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form late this week while the system
moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to develop well offshore
the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of the week. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and this system could also
become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin in a couple of days.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form late this week
while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of low pressure is forecast to develop well offshore
the southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Gradual development is possible thereafter, and this system could
also become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS continues to crank out storm after storm in the EPAC with no end in sight.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the GFS continues to crank out storm after storm in the EPAC with no end in sight.

Happens every year. Then in a week or two we’ll likely be saying the same thing for the Atlantic while the East Pacific is nearly dormant.