2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

EURO has it but weak.



00Z and 06Z GFS still consistent.

[euro6208]

94W THREAD

Up.

[euro6208]

Times are changing.

[euro6208]

GFS is all over the place with the eastern part of the basin.

00Z



06Z

[euro6208]

Seems like EURO is hopping on board.

[euro6208]

TSR reduces its July outlook and predicts the 2020 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will
be one of the least active typhoon seasons on record. An ACE value barely half of
climatology is anticipated. There is a 96% certainty that the 2020 ACE value
will be in the lowest one third of years historically.

August update:

21/13/5 ACE 157

Significantly down from July's 25/14/7 ACE 216



https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

[1900hurricane]

That looks about right honestly.

[toad strangler]

Subsidence will do that

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with a 939MB typhoon heading west but is in forever land way out at 300+ hours.

[1900hurricane]

Given where we are to date (second lowest ACE on record), the three closest years to us in ACE tally so far is 1998, 2010, and 1975. All three seasons ended up well below 200 ACE with similar numbers to the TSR forecast.

[hurricanes1234]

Given that latest WPAC forecast and comparing it to the one issued by NOAA a couple days ago for the Atlantic, I'm starting to seriously think that this could be one of the rare years where Atlantic activity exceeds activity here.

I mean I was wondering about it for a long time, but now I'm becoming more and more convinced.

[mrbagyo]

Given that latest WPAC forecast and comparing it to the one issued by NOAA a couple days ago for the Atlantic, I'm starting to seriously think that this could be one of the rare years where Atlantic activity exceeds activity here.

I mean I was wondering about it for a long time, but now I'm becoming more and more convinced.

very probable
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1292083432177176576

[dexterlabio]

What makes this inactive WPAC/active ATL scenario in 2020 more interesting is that the last time this happened is not too long ago (2017), and this kind of scenario happens so rarely. On the top of my head, the only years that the Atlantic greatly overshadowed the WPAC were in 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2017.

[1900hurricane]

What makes this inactive WPAC/active ATL scenario in 2020 more interesting is that the last time this happened is not too long ago (2017), and this kind of scenario happens so rarely. On the top of my head, the only years that the Atlantic greatly overshadowed the WPAC were in 1998, 2005, 2010, and 2017.

Swap out 2005 for 1999. The WPac's ACE actually held well above the NAtl's all through 2005.

[euro6208]

Given where we are to date (second lowest ACE on record), the three closest years to us in ACE tally so far is 1998, 2010, and 1975. All three seasons ended up well below 200 ACE with similar numbers to the TSR forecast.

Interestingly, alll three years featured an incredibly intense monster that was off the Dvorak scale.

2010's Megi and 1975's June had recon which found 170-175 knots and 875mb.

[euro6208]

Just like that. We have 3 active TC's.

All are expected to be weak short lived TS though.

[euro6208]

Given that latest WPAC forecast and comparing it to the one issued by NOAA a couple days ago for the Atlantic, I'm starting to seriously think that this could be one of the rare years where Atlantic activity exceeds activity here.

I mean I was wondering about it for a long time, but now I'm becoming more and more convinced.

People seem to forget.

Motto in the Atlantic is...

IT ONLY TAKES ONE...

[EquusStorm]

Probably gonna have at least one or more massive violent jaw-droppers by October at least, if Megi and Lan are any indication from the last two hyper ATL seasons.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the models, might have a CPAC-WPAC crosser in about a week or so.

[dexterlabio]

Based on the models, might have a CPAC-WPAC crosser in about a week or so.

With a brewing La Nina at this moment, I just find this one hard to believe. But let's see.