Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out MIMIC-TPW. Lookin pretty good to me. The next wave comin off Africa looks like a player as well. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

Check out MIMIC-TPW. Lookin pretty good to me. The next wave comin off Africa looks like a player as well. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Something quickly happened here.
Its re-forming to the NE.
Old convection dissipating.
New convection firing to the NE where it appears TPW is beginning to spin.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

CIMSS 700 mb vort indicates the wave axis is rotating to a more N-S orientation.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

CMC is the most aggressive in developing this as a warm core heading to the Bahamas

[GCANE]

GFS is now forecasting a massive Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Break to develop in about 150 hrs and anchor in over the east CONUS for about 5 days.

[abajan]

First visibles of the morning:

[xironman]

Looks like it might be getting some separation from the ITCZ. Seems to be tracking in pace with the dry air in front of it. 06 GFS keeps it around for 48hrs. Shear low.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.
Some slight development of this system is possible during the
next day or so while it moves slowly westward. After that time,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[GCANE]

Very apparent rotation and convergence in the boundary layer (surface to 850mb)

https://i.imgur.com/UZ0JXMd.png

[abajan]

So what happens to the probability of tropical cyclone development in the next TWO? More than 10% or does it stay at 10% or drop to 0%? That's the $64,000 question, and we'll know the answer in a few minutes!

[plasticup]

Surprised to see this at 10%/10%. Looks better than that to my untrained eye.

[cycloneye]

0%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a few showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions have become less conducive, and development
of this system is no longer anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[GCANE]

1015mb low embedded in the ITCZ

[GCANE]

Interesting how SAL has quickly cleared out around this wave and opened a door for the wave to the east.

[GCANE]

Quick look at GFS forecast and it shows UL conditions conducive for TC development in the Bahamas 5 days out.
Top end of the wave should be there by then.
It needs to hold on to convection.
SAL has improved overnight.