Will there be any Sub-900 MB Atlantic Model Storms this Year?

[Kingarabian]

Not pressures in actual systems but in model runs. They're not un-common in the WPAC, and the EPAC had some in 2015. However I don't recall the models doing so in 2017 for the Atlantic.

[Chris90]

I’m pretty sure that models took both Irma and Maria sub-900 in 2017. I think it might have been the GFS that took Irma below 900, and I think multiple runs actually took Irma below 900. For Maria I believe it might have been the HWRF that took her to 898mb, but there might have been more and it might have been multiple runs. I might be completely wrong too, my memory is not renowned for being great. Also, I just thought of it, but I think one of the models took Matthew to 896 in the West Caribbean back in 2016.

But to answer the question, yes I do believe that there will be runs for the ATL this year that drop below 900. I also think this year might actually pull off sub-900 in a storm. The last time we had that happen was 2005 with Rita and Wilma if I remember correctly, and before that Gilbert in ‘88. 17 years between those 2 years, and now it’s been 15 years since 2005, so maybe we’re coming due for one?

[TheStormExpert]

Yes there were many runs where the GFS had shown Irma being in the sub-900’s pressure-wise near Florida. Which created a lot of hype and doomsday forecasts. Fortunately that was well overdone and it went into Cuba and weakened a bit before pulling north towards Florida. Unfortunately I have no images to show.

[JetFuel_SE]

I’m pretty sure that models took both Irma and Maria sub-900 in 2017. I think it might have been the GFS that took Irma below 900, and I think multiple runs actually took Irma below 900. For Maria I believe it might have been the HWRF that took her to 898mb, but there might have been more and it might have been multiple runs. I might be completely wrong too, my memory is not renowned for being great. Also, I just thought of it, but I think one of the models took Matthew to 896 in the West Caribbean back in 2016.

But to answer the question, yes I do believe that there will be runs for the ATL this year that drop below 900. I also think this year might actually pull off sub-900 in a storm. The last time we had that happen was 2005 with Rita and Wilma if I remember correctly, and before that Gilbert in ‘88. 17 years between those 2 years, and now it’s been 15 years since 2005, so maybe we’re coming due for one?

The HMON took Irma to sub-860

[CyclonicFury]

Yes, the GFS will probably show one in the NW Caribbean during October and it'll be a phantom because of the GFS central America -VP200 bias.

[gfsperpendicular]

This is an interesting question and I will have to say yes. Haven't we already seen a 940ish on the GFS? Once we get into September I could totally see some model monsters.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like I somehow missed the GFS runs in 2017 showing Irma sub 900. I do remember the 906mb doom Florida runs

I'm thinking in September and October we could see some modeled Caribbean systems do so.

[aspen]

I think there’s a very good chance of the GFS going sub-900, likely with an already powerful, long-tracking MDR system in the likes of Irma. However, I also think we could see an actual sub-900 mbar system this year. With both the western Caribbean and Gulf favorable for development, this increases the odds of a system finding that perfect sweet spot to go nuclear. What I think could be the most likely scenario is something like Allen: a long tracking Caribbean Cruiser that bombs out in the WCarib.

[jaxfladude]

Please do not tempt 2020!

[Ptarmigan]

It would not surprise me if this happens.

[SconnieCane]

Model storm? Almost certainly (especially on GFS or HWRF). Real life storm? Not ruling it out this year.

[Monsoonjr99]

If you include the NAM then I'm 99.99% certain.

[St0rmTh0r]

The way this year has been I think its more of a chance it happens for real than a model prediction. Western Careibean can definitely support a pressure that low this year!

[St0rmTh0r]

The way this year has been I think its more of a chance it happens for real than a model prediction. Caribbean Sea can definitely support a pressure that low this year!

[supercane4867]

An actual sub-900mb system is definitely not out of reach. We already had Maria and Dorian both came close to it well east of the traditional location for ultra intense storms. We are long overdue for a Western Caribbean monster.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has fixed the problem of showing phantom sub-900 mbar systems it seems.

[gfsperpendicular]

Is the NAM cheating?

[TheStormExpert]

Typical NAM!

 https://twitter.com/tarcweather/status/1297727923030556673

[Shell Mound]

It’s rather interesting to note that several of the most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes, as measured by central pressure, were “homegrown”:

1. 1935 #3 – 892 mb (homegrown) – Craig Key, FL
2. 1969 Camille – 900 mb (homegrown) – Waveland, MS
3. 1924 #10 – 910 mb (homegrown) – Western Cuba
4. 2018 Michael – 919 mb (homegrown) – Mexico Beach, FL
5. 2005 Katrina – 920 mb (homegrown) – Buras-Triumph, LA
6. 1932 #4 – ≤ 921 mb (homegrown) – Abaco Islands, Bahamas
7. 1961 Hattie – 924 mb (homegrown) – Stann Creek, British Honduras (Belize)
8. 2005 Wilma – 927 mb (homegrown) – Cozumel, Mexico
9. 1961 Carla – 931 mb (homegrown) – Port Lavaca, TX

Several others formed in the MDR but did not exceed TS status until they moved outside the MDR and approached land:

1. 1988 Gilbert – 900 mb – Yucatán Peninsula
2. 2019 Dorian – 914 mb – Abaco Islands, Bahamas
3. 1932 #14 – 918 mb – Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba
4. 1992 Andrew – 922 mb – Fender Point, FL
5. 1886 #5 – 925 mb – Indianola, TX
6. 1919 #2 – 927 mb – Dry Tortugas, FL
7. 1916 #6 – 932 mb – Kingsville/Baffin Bay, TX

So several of the most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes on record were either “homegrown” or only tropical storms while transiting the MDR.

The big question is whether we may see a sub-900-mb landfall in 2020.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Is the NAM cheating?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EgJxx3gWkAAsTXk?format=png&name=medium
https://i.imgur.com/gou4Rdu.png

Gotta love gettin NAM'd.