Tropical Wave over the Central Atlantic

[GCANE]

Unusually strong convection in the ITCZ.
Globals have been hinting.
Stay tuned.

[GCANE]

Latest GFS pegged it.

[sma10]

I believe this is the feature that the CMC liked a couple days ago. There must be some inhibiting factor on the horizon because it does look pretty good atm

[GCANE]

I believe this is the feature that the CMC liked a couple days ago. There must be some inhibiting factor on the horizon because it does look pretty good atm

The LL vorts are improving, strong UL divergence and LL convergence.

[eastcoastFL]

That’s some pretty hefty convection. When is the monsoon trof supposed to reach the Caribbean per the gfs?

[floridasun78]

let see if nhc see it as some thing to watch. other thing we need see models support

[CFLHurricane]

The rotation was evident on the TPW this morning; let’s see if it continues into the weekend.

[toad strangler]

Tis the season! Does anybody really think the models will sniff out every storm 10 days in advance for us in this crazy year?

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates
the environment north of the wave. Scattered strong convection is
noted from 08N to 10N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

[floridasun78]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates
the environment north of the wave. Scattered strong convection is
noted from 08N to 10N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

what you think about this wave?

[St0rmTh0r]

Think the models can be thrown out at this point

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates
the environment north of the wave. Scattered strong convection is
noted from 08N to 10N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

what you think about this wave?

All the convection is embedded in the ITCZ, there's quite a bit dry air (SAL) along it's northern flank, and the global models don't see very impressed with it. My early thinking is that this isn't the one to be concerned with.

[sma10]

Tis the season! Does anybody really think the models will sniff out every storm 10 days in advance for us in this crazy year?

Based on Gonzalo, Hanna and Isaias ... that'll be a hard no

[sma10]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates
the environment north of the wave. Scattered strong convection is
noted from 08N to 10N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

what you think about this wave?

All the convection is embedded in the ITCZ, there's quite a bit dry air (SAL) along it's northern flank, and the global models don't see very impressed with it. My early thinking is that this isn't the one to be concerned with.

Yeah, I think there's more support with the next one

[xironman]

Euro almost likes it then blows it away

[GCANE]

Tangling with SAL, convection has backed off a bit.
Watching if this is a protected pouch.

[cycloneye]

Edited the title as is of course no longer at 37W and added a more general area.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, south of 19N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 36W and 41W.

[GCANE]

GFS pushes this out further west.
UKM tracks it further.

[GCANE]

JMA has the longest track.
I'm a bit skeptical about this being a cold core in light of the strong convection.

[GCANE]

Not half-bad vorts thru 500mb. Clear at 200mb.
Firing in little to no shear.
Convection at 10N 50W has an anticyclone which this wave may track into.