ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5361 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:09 pm

Kazmit wrote:Yikes. Cat 2 looking like a real possibility now. :double:


It will run out of time for that to happen. Still crazy that it hit 85mph.

I don’t want to even imagine how strong this would have got had that shear and excessive dry air not been there when it was off the coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5362 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:10 pm

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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5363 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:10 pm

Well, it still looks like crap on satellite. That really escalated quickly.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5364 Postby emeraldislenc » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:11 pm

I was going to say it reminds me of Bertha.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5365 Postby wx98 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:12 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Where will landfall be?

Looking like Oak Island right now. If it takes a last minute jog right it will scrape up toward Wrightsville and Topsail.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5366 Postby sikkar » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:13 pm

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5367 Postby invest man » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:13 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:Where will landfall be?

It looks like it’s on a trajectory to ride the HWY 17 corridor! Just a guess based on how it’s traveling!
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5368 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:15 pm

Those extremely high flight level winds are not translated to the surface with shallow convection so the standard reduction factor does not apply here. 75kt SFMR is pretty representative.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5369 Postby Buck » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:16 pm

I feel bad almost... I just went to SC last week and now Isaias hits. Every time I visit Charleston or Myrtle Beach, a hurricane hits the Carolinas shortly thereafter... Hugo in 88, Bertha in 96, Matthew in 16 and now Isaias in 20.
Last edited by Buck on Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5370 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:16 pm

Now imagine the jet Interaction coming up that brings some of those higher winds to the surface across the mid-Atlantic... I smell big time regionwide power outages coming

That's absolutely insane flight level winds tho, jeez
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5371 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:18 pm

If current track holds, Wilmington could see wind gusts higher than Florence.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5372 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:19 pm

Possible sting jet? Image

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Bertha 96' - Fran 96' - Bonnie 98' - Dennis 99' - Floyd 99' - Isabel 03' - Alex 04' - Ophelia 05' - Irene 11' - Arthur 14' - Matthew 16' - Florence 18' - Dorian 19' - Isaias 20' (countless other tropical storms and Hurricane swipes)

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5373 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:19 pm

76 knot gust recorded on frying pan tower = 87 mph
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5374 Postby shiny-pebble » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:19 pm

Not liking the trend this season of rapidly organizing storms as they reach the coast.... Bertha, Hanna, and now Isaias....

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5375 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:19 pm

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Possible sting jet. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200804/7db54f2c8dafc4b4057b480547f31ef3.jpg

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Reminds me of Hurricane Humberto last year during its closest approach to Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5376 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:20 pm

I'll never forget this storm. What an absolutely potent wave.
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5377 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:22 pm

emeraldislenc wrote:I was going to say it reminds me of Bertha.

Bertha 96 flashback

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5378 Postby beyokan » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:23 pm

tiger_deF wrote:I'll never forget this storm. What an absolutely potent wave.

This and Gonzalo were really fun ones to track.
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Floyd '99, Isabel '03, Irene '11, Matthew '16, Isaias '20

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5379 Postby Do_For_Love » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:23 pm

I'm not stunned it made Hurricane but the jump to 85 mph is pretty surprising IMO
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Irene '11, Sandy '12, Fay '20, Isaias '20, Ida '21

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Re: ATL: ISAIAS - Hurricane - Discussion

#5380 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:28 pm

Isaias is so close to beating its original peak intensity. Just a few mbar lower and this’ll be the strongest it’s ever been.

First peak was 75 kt/987 mbar. Currently, it’s 75 kt/988 mbar.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

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