ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Very little chance IMHO this will be purely tropical much longer.
Doesn't mean the winds will weaken, just that they will expand out.
Classic extratropical transition from interaction with the very close Rossby wave

[Visioen]

I'm seeing signs of rapid organization. Wind shear dropping and squalls are rotating west of center. Could still make hurricane strength by tonight.

When wxman57 starts being bullish, I pay attention.

[GCANE]

https://i.imgur.com/kAjcKwG.png

Pressure dropping again? And it's still moving NNW. Hasn't made the turn yet.

Can still get stronger but not as a pure TC.
It is passing the magic 30N line where extra-trop transitions typically begin.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I know shear can change quicky but I'm not optimistic for Isaias

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tolakram]

floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=765.4119415283203&y=1391.40625

[emeraldislenc]

Yes I listen to wxman when he speaks

[HurricaneEnzo]

IR is telling the story. Isn't looking any better than it has. Maybe even worse. I think it maintains at best.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

[Vdogg]

IR is telling the story. Isn't looking any better than it has. Maybe even worse. I think it maintains at best.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... product=ir

Looks like it's trying to wrap the LLC again. It still might have a chance.

[AnnularCane]

It’s fatigue, when you track closely for days, you need a break. If FL hadn’t been a threat and it was just a Carolina storm I would be more involved. Post storm cleanup is exhausting.

For sure, especially storms like this where it is so hard to forecast. We aren't even to the peak of hurricane season either, plenty more grey hair for us Floridians in the future.

I wonder how many of the gray-haired people in Florida are truly old or just avid hurricane-trackers.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm seeing signs of rapid organization. Wind shear dropping and squalls are rotating west of center. Could still make hurricane strength by tonight.

Haven't heard from you in a while good to see you.

Yeah I woke up not long ago and was checking Isaias on my phone before looking at peoples discussion and analysis and the storm definitely looks like it's putting itself back together now. I agree that a cat 1 is very possible before landfall. A 2 is possible but unlikely imo since I don't think it has enough time over water for that...Isaias is definitely in a more favorable environment now than it has been in days.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm seeing signs of rapid organization. Wind shear dropping and squalls are rotating west of center. Could still make hurricane strength by tonight.

Could you go into a little more detail? It looks a little less disheveled on radar to me, but satellite still looks pretty ugly. Are there some structural changes you’re seeing?

[ava_ati]

It’s fatigue, when you track closely for days, you need a break. If FL hadn’t been a threat and it was just a Carolina storm I would be more involved. Post storm cleanup is exhausting.

For sure, especially storms like this where it is so hard to forecast. We aren't even to the peak of hurricane season either, plenty more grey hair for us Floridians in the future.

I wonder how many of the gray-haired people in Florida are truly old or just avid hurricane-trackers.

No doubt, sometimes I wish I could just go back to be fat, dumb and happy about tropical systems... One day just turn on the news "oh there is a tropical storm coming" as opposed to watching these for a week and a half when they exit Africa as a wave.

[bcargile]

I'm thoroughly confused with equal comments of deteroration and increasing intensity (in some cases rapidly)...

[wxman57]

Squalls are rapidly building W-NW of the center. Wind field is contracting. I think it can make it to 75 mph within the next 12 hrs.

[Steve]

Energy on the E'/NE side is firing the heaviest. You can see it streaming toward the coast. Difference between Florida and South/North Carolina is that the precipitation has no choice but to make it to land since the center of the storm will be doing that too. Look today to see if the heaviest rainfall doesn't transition to the north and then NW side of the system as it interacts with the trough to its west. Could wring out a bunch of rainfall for some, but it should keep moving and therefore only amount to effects for part of a day.

High Resolution Visible
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Radar/Rainfall - Charleston NWS
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[southportwxfan]

I'm seeing signs of rapid organization. Wind shear dropping and squalls are rotating west of center. Could still make hurricane strength by tonight.

Oh bummer, I was hoping you'd say it was going to fall apart

[bcargile]

Is it accurate that from the latest recon, the lowest observed pressure was 1001 mb?

[southportwxfan]

I'm thoroughly confused with equal comments of deteroration and increasing intensity (in some cases rapidly)...

Well, as someone who has been a lurker on this forum for years- when I see conflicting comments I will always listen to wxman57 and Aric. Whereas some of the others, not so much...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Squalls are rapidly building W-NW of the center. Wind field is contracting. I think it can make it to 75 mph within the next 12 hrs.

Look like the West and NW sides have rapid convection building and no longer "pushing" against the shear line that has been there for days. Also some quickly building convection around the south side of the center. the south side has been hammered by shear all along, first time I have seen convection in all quads not ripped apart at 500mb or lower.

[Vdogg]

Is it accurate that from the latest recon, the lowest observed pressure was 1001 mb?

1000 was the lowest so far.