ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1290261891105697794

[Vdogg]

Looking like crap (technical pro-met term) on satellite and recon this morning. Not sure it can get its act together and become a hurricane in the next 12 hrs before landfall.

He’s looked like worse and come back. Betting he makes another run for it.

[GCANE]

UL winds may have shifted the past few hours.
Early this morning, I saw 15 knots out of the SW at 300mb over the LLC.
Now they are 15 knots out of the NW.

[supercane4867]

[GCANE]

Very high rain rate, indicating strong latent heating.
Core can still warm up and possibly strengthen the storm.

[GCANE]

I think the shift in UL winds may have shifted the tilt on the vort column to cause downdrafts from the thunderstorms to cutoff the infeed.
JMHO.

[GCANE]

I think the shift in UL winds may have shifted the tilt on the vort column to cause downdrafts from the thunderstorms to cutoff the infeed.
JMHO.

Making more sense.
Radar showing all the convection that was SE of the CoC suddenly being pushed out to the east.
The infeed was coming in from the SE of the CoC.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree it looks much weaker this morning. That may be good news for us in NC. I think the next few hours will tell us a lot about the impact on our area.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[GCANE]

Going to be getting closer and closer to the Rossby Wave and associated trof.
Moving now to a more asymmetric warm core.
Transitioning maybe happening a little faster than forecast.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

wow- got kind of quiet in here after the major threat to Florida has dissipated. Us poor North Carolinians are left to fend for ourselves-lol. Let's hope this system does not get its act together and strengthen anymore before plowing into our state. After the last few years we really don't need another hurricane!

Yeah, it typically does but it's to be expected because many that were posting are Floridians. Most of the time they're busy taking down what they put up or clean up afterwards but this time is different, thankfully. It'll pick back up some but usually not to the pace it was. Now if this were strong cane, they'd be on it for sure. But it is weak and not as fascinating to watch either. I'm sure we all can agree on that. We hate the destruction a cane leaves behind but we are all here because of the fascination we have with anything weather related. Anywho, I'm dreading the wind here east of Raleigh NC (Benson I95 corridor). Our power goes out during thunderstorms so we'll be totally surprised if we have power the entire time. But we have our generator ready. On top of that we live down a private dead end road with 6 other homes and the way the wind blows during these storms it never fails, everyone's trash/debris ends up plastered against our chain link fence every stinkin' time and we get stuck cleaning up someone else's crap. Oh and yay I just remembered, trash pick is in the morning. I bet they'll still put their cans out tonight and guess what will happen? You bet! All that will be plastered against our fence line too. Welp, thank you for listening to my TedTalk today. I gotta get outside and help hubby make sure our livestock will be properly sheltered from the wind and rain tonight. Over and out for now

Yeah, I knew it was going to be a long day, so I turned in early last night. today, I will be at the coffee and wine bar all day, getting outdoor furniture packed away, and sun shades taken down, then home to hunker down for the night, and go set it all back up tomorrow.

[Vdogg]

saved loop

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/Krzd0QW.gif

Surprised that thing still has somewhat of an eye.

[GCANE]

Looks like 50-knot wind field is expanding.
Here are some additional estimates to be used as a base.
See where these are later today.

[TheStormExpert]

Isaias has been struggling all of its life and that doesn’t look to change anytime soon. Better news for the Carolinas as it might not be as strong as currently forecasted.

[GCANE]

[southportwxfan]

wow- got kind of quiet in here after the major threat to Florida has dissipated. Us poor North Carolinians are left to fend for ourselves-lol. Let's hope this system does not get its act together and strengthen anymore before plowing into our state. After the last few years we really don't need another hurricane!

Yeah, it typically does but it's to be expected because many that were posting are Floridians. Most of the time they're busy taking down what they put up or clean up afterwards but this time is different, thankfully. It'll pick back up some but usually not to the pace it was. Now if this were strong cane, they'd be on it for sure. But it is weak and not as fascinating to watch either. I'm sure we all can agree on that. We hate the destruction a cane leaves behind but we are all here because of the fascination we have with anything weather related. Anywho, I'm dreading the wind here east of Raleigh NC (Benson I95 corridor). Our power goes out during thunderstorms so we'll be totally surprised if we have power the entire time. But we have our generator ready. On top of that we live down a private dead end road with 6 other homes and the way the wind blows during these storms it never fails, everyone's trash/debris ends up plastered against our chain link fence every stinkin' time and we get stuck cleaning up someone else's crap. Oh and yay I just remembered, trash pick is in the morning. I bet they'll still put their cans out tonight and guess what will happen? You bet! All that will be plastered against our fence line too. Welp, thank you for listening to my TedTalk today. I gotta get outside and help hubby make sure our livestock will be properly sheltered from the wind and rain tonight. Over and out for now

Yeah, I knew it was going to be a long day, so I turned in early last night. today, I will be at the coffee and wine bar all day, getting outdoor furniture packed away, and sun shades taken down, then home to hunker down for the night, and go set it all back up tomorrow.

Are you at "The Office"?!

[syfr]

I was just outside making a last sweep around the house, and I can tell you that the humidity here (just SE of Raleigh 15 miles) is super high. It's also DEAD calm out there. Not a leaf moving.

Yet!

[wxman57]

I'm seeing signs of rapid organization. Wind shear dropping and squalls are rotating west of center. Could still make hurricane strength by tonight.

[Vdogg]

https://i.imgur.com/kAjcKwG.png

Pressure dropping again? And it's still moving NNW. Hasn't made the turn yet.

[GCANE]

Now that it is likely that the infeed has been cut off, there is a large pool of high TPW air in the Carib that may start to converge.
Especially when it gets closer to the Yucatan.
I mentioned this possibility from the get go.
Models don't show anything, but at this point, when did they ever?
Stay tuned.