ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

00z TVCN landfalls NE PBC and goes inland a couple miles and rides the coast.

They Might shift track west close to coast bringing in those TS winds I would think.

[skillz305]

had a pretty wild band come thru the treasure coast. just a little taste of isaias. he wont even be here for 12-16 more hours

[gatorcane]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

[toad strangler]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

Yeah I don't know about all that

[AxaltaRacing24]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

Yeah I don't know about all that

i still remember this model sending matthew into miami.

[Blown Away]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

Yeah I don't know about all that

i still remember this model sending matthew into miami.

Yes, good memory. It was so persistently wrong the whole night.

[birddogsc]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

It's like the model expects the LLC and MLC to dance around each other.

[TheStormExpert]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

I think the MLC and LLC being displaced now is causing the models fits again.

[Steve]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

It's had an eastern bias for the last day to day and a half - although it's done fairly well with general structure and intensity. I don't know if it's going to be right or not. It's just one model to watch. NAM's are longer near/on the coast. ICON is running now. We'll see where that goes. Usually we have a better consensus within 18 hours. SFWMD shows it. But not the individual models necessarily.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

FWIW ^ is one of the all time tracks. Maybe one day something way stronger will approximate. ?

[Hurricaneman]

HRRR literally has Isaias moving around around Palm Beach County avoiding a landfall

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80200&fh=4

I think the MLC and LLC being displaced now is causing the models fits again.

The thing to watch for is relocation under the MLC, if that happens then the whole 0z model suite would have to be trashed but that’s an if right now

[Steve]

ICON is mostly offshore but right at the shore.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0200&fh=23

[Steve]

ICON has eastern NC as a decent TS in the scope.

[Steve]

02z HRRR is one of the closest runs to the coast yet. Again, nothing crazy, but certainly weather.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80202&fh=1

[Steve]

ICON 5pm Tuesday

[Steve]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

GFS rare track that is slightly west of the angle of the FL East Coast. Maybe?

[skillz305]

SFWMD track line seems to have updated as a literal coast hugger on the treasure coast.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

[ncskywarn]

TWC was showing all the different planes and their flight paths and said all the data from the upper air flight will be in the 6z model runs.

[ncskywarn]

Anyone have the 0z Euro model plots?

[ncskywarn]

00Z ECMWF and 06Z NAM were both West of their previous runs. Both models now have the center passing directly over Wake County in North Carolina. The previous runs of both models were East of Wake County

Update: Add the 3k high resolution NAM to the list that now has the center passing directly over Wake County.

[NDG]

The Euro is still persistent that it will strengthen some today before weakening again tonight. But I doubt it will strengthen that much.