ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SapphireSea]

Nam coming in way south.. hmm

I know it’s the nam.

It's south, but more because it's slowing down. Looks like it may end up east in the end.

[toad strangler]

Looks east to me

Agree. It's East

[SFLcane]

Not a good trend! @cyclonicwx

Not liking this trend in the short term of #Isaias's forecast, trough may dig a little more, but this results in a more amplified pattern that strengthens the ridge downstream (over Isaias). May be able to go further west, & a slower trough trend means later recurve.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1 ... 53312?s=21

[Ken711]

18z Euro ensemble tracks, this could be a big deal for Eastern NC, the Mid-Atlantic and especially the Northeast who aren't too used to sub 970mb hurricanes racing through...

https://i.imgur.com/gtnA3EU.png

OTB for sure with those 18Z ensemble tracks.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks east to me

Agree. It's East

it's an east shift due to the slower speed.

[gatorcane]

Looks east to me

Agree. It's East

Yes ends up a bit east but I see more ridging still compared to 18Z, maybe because it moves the storm a bit slower. Talk about threading the needle just barely misses Palm Beach:

[PTrackerLA]

00z 3km NAM down to 956mb at 42 hours, strongest run yet of I know it's the NAM.

[shah83]

I'm mostly looking at the ridge. Stouter? Thicker? More likely for a NNE recurve that hits points further north?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I can't help but wonder given recent runs if the trough will "juice up" Isaias due to its baroclinic influence.

[SouthFLTropics]

For what it's worth, ICON is SW of the 18z position.

[caneseddy]

GFS still tracks it offshore and looks like almost no change from the 18z run out to 48 hours. Has it more strong and moving faster. Looks like it will end up brushing the OBX

[Hurricaneman]

For what it's worth, ICON is SW of the 18z position.

https://i.imgur.com/WmRI7hQ.gif

Earlier in the run it’s too weak compared to reality

[SoupBone]

GFS very close to identical to its previous run, just far enough offshore to have less impacts on Florida. This is really threading a needle.

[supercane4867]

00z GFS shows major NE impact. Also has a stronger Josephine behind Isaias.

[TheDreamTraveler]

0z gfs shows it skirting by Florida, a North Carolina landfall, riding up the mid atlantic coast and landfalling in NY/New England

[Ubuntwo]

0z GFS sends a hurricane into Long Island.

[supercane4867]

Well, perhaps the shear is not as strong as we thought.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Also shows it landfalling in Maine

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

0z GFS sends a hurricane into Long Island.

The senario literally no one wants given the crap NYC/Long Island has already been through this year.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a similar path to Carol in 1954 on the GFS, something I didn’t think I would say in Late July, Early August