ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

Islands will not kill this, it is too large and nebulous. Land interaction will certainly impact development, but will also act to shape development. Likewise, shear probably won't kill this either. Any shear will likely be self inflicted as a result of it running out from under it's own anti cyclone.

[wxman57]

Perhaps still a broad, open low with a center just south of 15N or near 15N. Could be a sharp wave axis, too. I don't see any well-defined LLC north of the convection.

[aspen]

It’s looking decently good on visible satellite imagery. New convection continues to fire in the dominant lobe, some early banding and outflow features are present, and while the wave circulation is still elongated, it is moving to become S—>N oriented instead of SW—>NE. Odds are we’ll have TS Isaias no later than very early tomorrow morning. As for track and intensity...well, I’m just going to wait until there’s a center to pin down.

[cycloneye]

09L NINE 200729 1200 15.6N 62.7W ATL 40 1005

[psyclone]

Well it looks...less bad today. probably just a slow process that eventually yields a center later today. doesn't look like much now. but we do have vastly improved convective symmetry so there's that.

[Blown Away]

09L NINE 200729 1200 15.6N 62.7W ATL 40 1005

Come on Aric, you said 15.6! I'm still leaning 15.8.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It still looks to me like it is heading due west. It would have to make a right turn to hit Hispaniola at this point.

[GCANE]

IR Sat still showing a mixed message if this is closed off or not at the surface.
Target for recon is 15.8N 62.2W

[NDG]

Clearly the LLC is pretty close to closing off completely but not quite there yet, circulation remains elongated. Recon finds the lowest pressure closer to 16th latitude, on the northern end.

[ScottNAtlanta]

IR Sat still showing a mixed message if this is closed off or not at the surface.
Target for recon is 15.8N 62.2W

They were just there, and they didn't find a center

[toad strangler]

It still looks to me like it is heading due west. It would have to make a right turn to hit Hispaniola at this point.

No it wouldn't, you must be mistaking Puerto Rico with the Dominican Republic. If it made a right turn it would even miss PR. I has plenty of yardage to make a gradual turn and slam DR.

[GCANE]

IR Sat still showing a mixed message if this is closed off or not at the surface.
Target for recon is 15.8N 62.2W

They were just there, and they didn't find a center

Saw that.
Could be between where they are now and the ship to the NW

[TheStormExpert]

Looks much better than 12hrs. ago when I was starting to write it off. Still has some work to do but it’s making progress, not to mention it’s starting to gradually slowdown which will definitely help.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It still looks to me like it is heading due west. It would have to make a right turn to hit Hispaniola at this point.

No it wouldn't, you must be mistaking Puerto Rico with the Dominican Republic. If it made a right turn it would even miss PR. I has plenty of yardage to make a gradual turn and slam DR.

No, because I think the center is going to form SW of where everyone seems to be looking. Maybe not a "hard right", but a substantial change in direction, that up until now...has not been happening.

[Evil Jeremy]

Since PTCs were introduced several years ago, has there been one yet that never made it to a named cyclone? Just curious.

[alan1961]

This is looking quite ominous..those bands spiraling around the circulation gives the impression
this means business in the caribbean..RECON!!..I can't waste anymore time faffin around i'm
going gung-ho from now on!

[ScottNAtlanta]

IR Sat still showing a mixed message if this is closed off or not at the surface.
Target for recon is 15.8N 62.2W

They were just there, and they didn't find a center

Saw that.
Could be between where they are now and the ship to the NW

https://i.imgur.com/gI0nFwl.png

Yes, thats the area I am thinking of too.

[aspen]

Since PTCs were introduced several years ago, has there been one yet that never made it to a named cyclone? Just curious.

PTC-10 in 2017, off of the SEUS coast. It would’ve taken the name Irma if it formed.

[Ian2401]

it is clearly moving overall WNW guys, just MAYBE slightly less N than expected. but def not due W like some of you guys are saying and it is still well on track to impact the DR IMHO

[toad strangler]

It still looks to me like it is heading due west. It would have to make a right turn to hit Hispaniola at this point.

No it wouldn't, you must be mistaking Puerto Rico with the Dominican Republic. If it made a right turn it would even miss PR. I has plenty of yardage to make a gradual turn and slam DR.

No, because I think the center is going to form SW of where everyone seems to be looking. Maybe not a "hard right", but a substantial change in direction, that up until now...has not been happening.

I guess we have to just disagree. All kinds of room to hit DR.