ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crownweather]

no 1100 TWO from NHC as yet

Twos are issued 4 times a day - 2 am and pm as well as 8 am and pm.

[Aric Dunn]

I have been curious about that vigorous piece of energy all morning.

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

Well if that flare up of vorticity and convections continues, may that is where the COC maybe redefined.

Continues to slowly consolidate around that Vort max right in the middle. big moisture feed starting to enter from the south.

[ScottNAtlanta]

no 1100 TWO from NHC as yet

They may not be sure how to word it

The TWO comes out at 2p
Only active storms are updated at 11 and 5

[RT23]

no 1100 TWO from NHC as yet

Twos are issued 4 times a day - 2 am and pm as well as 8 am and pm.

Thank Rob, huge fan of your page btw!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

Well if that flare up of vorticity and convections continues, may that is where the COC maybe redefined.

Continues to slowly consolidate around that Vort max right in the middle. big moisture feed starting to enter from the south.

https://i.ibb.co/ncPSrHc/RE-20200727-160321.gif

Just needs one really good burst near that center, but I think it needs to get closer to the Islands. The natural convergence is much higher there where the Trades slow before the Caribbean.

[crownweather]

no 1100 TWO from NHC as yet

Twos are issued 4 times a day - 2 am and pm as well as 8 am and pm.

Thank Rob, huge fan of your page btw!

You are so very welcome!!! And thank you for your very kind comments.

[St0rmTh0r]

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

Well if that flare up of vorticity and convections continues, may that is where the COC maybe redefined.

Continues to slowly consolidate around that Vort max right in the middle. big moisture feed starting to enter from the south.

https://i.ibb.co/ncPSrHc/RE-20200727-160321.gif

I dont think I've ever seen a circulation this large in the Atlantic Ocean theres definitely moisture pumping into it now on this latest visible. that piece of energy sw of it looks like it could break off and head towards the carribean too. This will be very interesting to watch how all this unfolds

[HurricaneEnzo]

Nothing will come of that energy in the SW portion of the storm. It is already well below 10N and dive bombing SW. If anything it will be that area of spin more in the center of this massive invest but I still have my doubts anything gets going.

[St0rmTh0r]

Well if that flare up of vorticity and convections continues, may that is where the COC maybe redefined.

Continues to slowly consolidate around that Vort max right in the middle. big moisture feed starting to enter from the south.

https://i.ibb.co/ncPSrHc/RE-20200727-160321.gif

Just needs one really good burst near that center, but I think it needs to get closer to the Islands. The natural convergence is much higher there where the Trades slow before the Caribbean.

What's the wind shear status out there right now the nhc said conditions would become increasingly favorable. The way it is looking is hinting this

[wxman57]

I don't see any consolidation of convection near the center. Convection is decreasing near the low center. NHC will probably lower chances to 60/80. 12Z GFS barely develops it now. No development in last night's ECMWF. I could see a brief TD/TS out of this. I may yet get a very long weekend later this week.

[St0rmTh0r]

I'm seeing a high chance of this being a tropical storm in the next couple days. This thing is so big the islands are going to be affected no matter what. Its approaching increasing moisture and SST let's see what the upper levels do to it.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1287778176282787840

[St0rmTh0r]

I don't see any consolidation of convection near the center. Convection is decreasing near the low center. NHC will probably lower chances to 60/80. 12Z GFS barely develops it now. No development in last night's ECMWF. I could see a brief TD/TS out of this. I may yet get a very long weekend later this week.

Hasn't consolidated yet but you can see shower activity and vorticity increasing. I'll wouldn't roll with what the models are saying just yet.

[ouragans]

I'm seeing a high chance of this being a tropical storm in the next couple days. This thing is so big the islands are going to be affected no matter what. Its approaching increasing moisture and SST let's see what the upper levels do to it.

That's my biggest threat. People in Martinique think they're out of the game because GFS shows a track 200 miles north of the island. I'm struggling to keep people alert in all the french islands, telling them not to focus on the center's track. And it's GFS... With a LLC to far north

[Aric Dunn]

I don't see any consolidation of convection near the center. Convection is decreasing near the low center. NHC will probably lower chances to 60/80. 12Z GFS barely develops it now. No development in last night's ECMWF. I could see a brief TD/TS out of this. I may yet get a very long weekend later this week.

Hasn't consolidated yet but you can see shower activity and vorticity increasing. I'll wouldn't roll with what the models are saying just yet.

compared to the last couple days where there was no defined vort max at all..

and now we have one defined vort max. So yes overall it has consolidated down to one area ( slightly elongated). Convection is the next thing..

[HurricaneEnzo]

There does appear to be increased vorticity around 45.6W and 12N. If anything does get going looks like that is where it will happen. Still a lot of work to do.

[gatorcane]

Well, it is the center of the overall system and the only well-defined vorticity..

So not really all that much else to focus on.

Well if that flare up of vorticity and convections continues, may that is where the COC maybe redefined.

Continues to slowly consolidate around that Vort max right in the middle. big moisture feed starting to enter from the south.

https://i.ibb.co/ncPSrHc/RE-20200727-160321.gif

Aric yes I agree it has a nice moisture feed but there is plenty of SAL just to the north that should continue to keep this wave from becoming anything significant into the islands. Just a bit early for development that far east but in a few weeks conditions should be better. Keeping an eye on this wave in case it can find a pocket of better conditions further west later this week into the weekend.

[AutoPenalti]

I don't see any consolidation of convection near the center. Convection is decreasing near the low center. NHC will probably lower chances to 60/80. 12Z GFS barely develops it now. No development in last night's ECMWF. I could see a brief TD/TS out of this. I may yet get a very long weekend later this week.

The more you say it, the less it will happen

[TheStormExpert]

I don't see any consolidation of convection near the center. Convection is decreasing near the low center. NHC will probably lower chances to 60/80. 12Z GFS barely develops it now. No development in last night's ECMWF. I could see a brief TD/TS out of this. I may yet get a very long weekend later this week.

Enjoy yourself now! Hopefully next month the lid will come off and we’ll have something to track that HOPEFULLY goes harmlessly our to sea.

[Nuno]

An awful lot of casual dismissing of an invest that has been declared 80/90 by the NHC for development. These are often slow processes. Don't forget, "next month" is only five days away.